What will be the tipper?

[Free Bird]

Let's just say the GOP gets the seats needed to win control through election night, wherever they may be. With the exception of Louisiana as it will likely go into runoff, which race result/poll closing, if any, will trigger the media calling the Republicans have captured the Senate due to getting that particular sixth seat? The tipping point, you could say.  I'm thinking Alaska, if it flips. The others, like in NC, will be too close, and if they do flip, will be after control is declared.

[Senator Cris]

Let's just say the GOP gets the seats needed to win control through election night, wherever they may be. With the exception of Louisiana as it will likely go into runoff, which race result/poll closing, if any, will trigger the media calling the Republicans have captured the Senate due to getting that particular sixth seat? The tipping point, you could say.  I'm thinking Alaska, if it flips. The others, like in NC, will be too close, and if they do flip, will be after control is declared.

If the GOP gets the seats needed to win control, I think that the "tipping seat" will be Louisiana (in a runoff) or Georgia (in a runoff).

[Never]

So, we're trying to find out which seat will be the sixth Republican pickup should that happen in November on election night. I'm going to use Eastern time for every race here.

For starts, Kentucky and Georgia both fully close at 7:00 p.m, but I have my doubts that either race will be called when the polls close. Perdue will probably win sometime before midnight. McConnell might take some time to win, but he should ultimately achieve victory before the sixth Republican pickup.

I think pickup #1 happens in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m.

North Carolina closes at the same time, but I'm expecting that the election will be so close that it won't be called early in the night.

Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., and I expect that this race will be called for Cotton at this time or shortly thereafter (pickup #2).

South Dakota fully closes at 9:00 p.m. and is called for Rounds (pickup #3). At the same time, polls in Colorado and Louisiana close. Colorado is too close to call, and it soon becomes clear that Louisiana will be thrown to a December runoff.

Montana closes at 10:00 p.m and is called for Daines (pickup #4). Iowa also closes, but the race is too close to call.

Alaska closes at 12:00 a.m., and is called for Sullivan - who I expect will be the GOP nominee - soon after (pickup #5).

This is where it gets tricky to determine the sixth Republican pickup will come from. North Carolina will probably be taken out of the equation. Similarly, Colorado could take quite some time, possibly being called for either Udall or Gardner on Wednesday morning or evening, or even Thursday. That ultimately ;eaves Iowa as the lynchpin. The race there could very well be called for Ernst and end up as pickup #6 after midnight, at say, 2:00 or 3:00 a.m.  On the other hand, if Ernst doesn't win, it could be several days before control of the Senate is determined by either North Carolina or Colorado, most likely North Carolina, but if Democrats win both of those seats, Cris could be right about Louisana being pickup #6.

[NHLiberal]

So, we're trying to find out which seat will be the sixth Republican pickup should that happen in November on election night. I'm going to use Eastern time for every race here.

For starts, Kentucky and Georgia both fully close at 7:00 p.m, but I have my doubts that either race will be called when the polls close. Perdue will probably win sometime before midnight. McConnell might take some time to win, but he should ultimately achieve victory before the sixth Republican pickup.

I think pickup #1 happens in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m.

North Carolina closes at the same time, but I'm expecting that the election will be so close that it won't be called early in the night.

Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., and I expect that this race will be called for Cotton at this time or shortly thereafter (pickup #2).

South Dakota fully closes at 9:00 p.m. and is called for Rounds (pickup #3). At the same time, polls in Colorado and Louisiana close. Colorado is too close to call, and it soon becomes clear that Louisiana will be thrown to a December runoff.

Montana closes at 10:00 p.m and is called for Daines (pickup #4). Iowa also closes, but the race is too close to call.

Alaska closes at 12:00 a.m., and is called for Sullivan - who I expect will be the GOP nominee - soon after (pickup #5).

This is where it gets tricky to determine the sixth Republican pickup will come from. North Carolina will probably be taken out of the equation. Similarly, Colorado could take quite some time, possibly being called for either Udall or Gardner on Wednesday morning or evening, or even Thursday. That ultimately ;eaves Iowa as the lynchpin. The race there could very well be called for Ernst and end up as pickup #6 after midnight, at say, 2:00 or 3:00 a.m.  On the other hand, if Ernst doesn't win, it could be several days before control of the Senate is determined by either North Carolina or Colorado, most likely North Carolina, but if Democrats win both of those seats, Cris could be right about Louisana being pickup #6.

As I've tried to explain before (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194446.msg4215820#msg4215820), the tipping point state/race is based on margin of victory, not time of call. But I agree with this for the most part, other than Alaska being called shortly after the polls closing.

[Never]

So, we're trying to find out which seat will be the sixth Republican pickup should that happen in November on election night. I'm going to use Eastern time for every race here.

For starts, Kentucky and Georgia both fully close at 7:00 p.m, but I have my doubts that either race will be called when the polls close. Perdue will probably win sometime before midnight. McConnell might take some time to win, but he should ultimately achieve victory before the sixth Republican pickup.

I think pickup #1 happens in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m.

North Carolina closes at the same time, but I'm expecting that the election will be so close that it won't be called early in the night.

Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., and I expect that this race will be called for Cotton at this time or shortly thereafter (pickup #2).

South Dakota fully closes at 9:00 p.m. and is called for Rounds (pickup #3). At the same time, polls in Colorado and Louisiana close. Colorado is too close to call, and it soon becomes clear that Louisiana will be thrown to a December runoff.

Montana closes at 10:00 p.m and is called for Daines (pickup #4). Iowa also closes, but the race is too close to call.

Alaska closes at 12:00 a.m., and is called for Sullivan - who I expect will be the GOP nominee - soon after (pickup #5).

This is where it gets tricky to determine the sixth Republican pickup will come from. North Carolina will probably be taken out of the equation. Similarly, Colorado could take quite some time, possibly being called for either Udall or Gardner on Wednesday morning or evening, or even Thursday. That ultimately ;eaves Iowa as the lynchpin. The race there could very well be called for Ernst and end up as pickup #6 after midnight, at say, 2:00 or 3:00 a.m.  On the other hand, if Ernst doesn't win, it could be several days before control of the Senate is determined by either North Carolina or Colorado, most likely North Carolina, but if Democrats win both of those seats, Cris could be right about Louisana being pickup #6.

As I've tried to explain before (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194446.msg4215820#msg4215820), the tipping point state/race is based on margin of victory, not time of call. But I agree with this for the most part, other than Alaska being called shortly after the polls closing.

By all means, I agree with your definition of tipping point. I just felt like OP wanted to know which race would be the sixth Republican pickup in November's news coverage, rather than the margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Pryor wins, to me that will be the tipper. Followed by NC.

[ElectionsGuy]

Either Alaska or North Carolina, right now I'm thinking Alaska. Louisiana would probably go to a runoff, so that might be the real tipper, but it terms of closeness, Alaska.

1. SD
2. WV
3. MT
4. AR
5. LA
6. AK
7. NC

[SWE]

Democrats will lose Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. If Republicans win a sixth seat,  it'd be either Alaska, North Carolina, or Iowa,  probably Iowa.

[TDAS04]

Either Alaska or North Carolina, right now I'm thinking Alaska. Louisiana would probably go to a runoff, so that might be the real tipper, but it terms of closeness, Alaska.

1. SD
2. WV
3. MT
4. AR
5. LA
6. AK
7. NC

This. 

[NHLiberal]

Either Alaska or North Carolina, right now I'm thinking Alaska. Louisiana would probably go to a runoff, so that might be the real tipper, but it terms of closeness, Alaska.

1. SD
2. WV
3. MT
4. AR
5. LA
6. AK
7. NC

This. 

Yup, I agree that this is what would happen in the case that the GOP regains the majority. Though I'm thinking we lose the first 4 on election night, narrowly win KY on election night, then lose the GA & LA races in runoffs. While narrowly holding IA & CO and performing better than expected in MI & NH.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, assuming my current 'if the election were held today' prediction doesn't change (52-48 Rep. Majority) , here's a rough timeline:

7:00 PM:
VA: Too Early To Call
SC: Both Races called for Republicans
GA: Too Close To Call
KY: Too Close To Call

Senate Count: 34-32 Dem

7:30 PM:
WV: Too Early To Call
NC: Too Close To Call

8:00 PM:
AL: Called for Republican
MS: Called for Republican
OK: Both Races Called for Republicans
IL: Called for Democrat
DE: Called for Democrat
NJ: Called for Democrat
TN: Called for Republican
MA: Called for Democrat
RI: Called for Democrat
NH: Too Early To Call
ME: Called for Republican

Senate Count: 39-38 Dem

8:30 PM:
AR: Too Early To Call

Between 8:30 and 9:00:
WV: Called for Republican
VA: Called for Democrat

Senate Count: 40-39 Dem (Republicans +1)

9:00:
LA: Too Close To Call
TX: Called for Republican
NM: Called for Democrat
CO: Too Close To Call
KS: Called for Republican
SD: Called for Republican
NE: Called for Republican
WY: Called for Republican
MN: Too Early To Call
MI: Too Early To Call

Senate Count: 44-41 Rep (Republicans +2)

Between 9:00 and 9:30:
NH: Called for Democrat

Senate Count: 44-42 Rep (Republicans +2)

10:00:
IA: Too Close To Call
MT: Too Early To Call

Between 10:00 and 10:30:
AR: Called for Republican
KY: Called for Republican

Senate Count: 46-42 Rep (Republicans +3)

Between 10:30 and 11:00:
NC: Called for Democrat (This was about when NC finished counting its votes in '12)
MI: Called for Democrat
MN: Called for Democrat

Senate Count: 46-45 Rep (Republicans +3)

11:00:
OR: Called for Democrat
HI: Called for Democrat
ID: Called for Republican

Senate Count: 47-47 (Republicans +3)

Between 11:00 and 11:30:
MT: Called for Republican
GA: Called for Republican
LA: Projected to Require Runoff

Senate Count: 49-47 Rep (Republicans +4) (1 Runoff needed)

1:00 AM:
AK: Too Close To Call

Between 1:00 and 2:00:
IA: Called For Republican

Senate Count:
50-47 Rep (Republicans +5) (1 Runoff Needed)

Late Morning, Nov. 5:
AK: Called For Democrat

Mid To Late Afternoon, Nov. 5:
CO: Called for Republican

Senate Count: 51-48 Rep (Republicans +6) (1 Runoff Needed)
REPUBLICANS HAVE THE SENATE MAJORITY!

December 6th:
LA-Runoff: Called for Republican

Final Senate Count: 52-48 Rep (Republicans +7)

[Talleyrand]

Here are the seats I see changing hands (in order of margin of victory decreasing)

1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia
3. Montana
4. Louisiana (counting the runoff)
5. Arkansas
6. North Carolina
7. Alaska
8. Iowa
9. Colorado

...And possibly Michigan as a tenth seat, but I am unsure about the order in which to place Alaska, North Carolina, and Arkansas (all of which I'm pretty sure will fall to the Republicans, but am unsure about the magnitude of the margins).

The first four (SD, WV, MT, LA) won't be particularly close at all, if not landslides.