OH-Quinnipiac: Paul only trails Hillary by 4, leads among Indies
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  OH-Quinnipiac: Paul only trails Hillary by 4, leads among Indies
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Paul only trails Hillary by 4, leads among Indies  (Read 1672 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 31, 2014, 06:15:05 AM »

Looking at the 2016 White House race, Ohio voters back Clinton over their Favorite Son, Gov. John Kasich, 47 - 40 percent. She tops other possible Republican contenders:

    46 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    48 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    46 - 37 percent over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.

By a 52 - 43 percent margin, Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. For Republicans, favorability ratings are:

    Negative 29 - 35 percent for Bush;
    35 - 30 percent for Paul;
    34 percent favorable to 36 percent unfavorable for Christie;
    46 - 30 percent for Kasich.

In matchups against Republicans, Clinton's lead among women ranges from 20 to 24 percentage points.

Paul gets 44 percent of independent voters to Clinton's 41 percent, but she leads other candidates among this pivotal group by margins of 6 to 14 percentage points.

From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2066
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 07:32:45 AM »

#Paulmentum
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 08:30:07 AM »

Clinton 46%
Paul 42%

Clinton 48%
Bush 37%

Clinton 46%
Christie 37%

Clinton 47%
Kasich 40%

fav/unfav % among all voters
Kasich 46/30% for +16%
Clinton 52/43% for +9%
Paul 35/30% for +5%
Christie 34/36% for -2%
Bush 29/35% for -6%

fav/unfav % among Republicans only
Kasich 81/4% for +77%
Bush 58/6% for +52%
Paul 62/11% for +51%
Christie 55/20% for +35%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 08:32:17 AM »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +19%
30-49: Clinton +9%
50-64: Clinton +10%
65+: tie

Paul vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: tie
30-49: Clinton +10%
50-64: Clinton +5%
65+: Paul +1%
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 08:42:21 AM »

It makes sense. Paul gets a lot of the younger Obama voters, the kind who have been voting against the GOP because of issues like war and the religious right. That's why he does so well in CO.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2014, 10:42:25 AM »

If Paul gets more name recognition in the GE because face it these polls are way bloated due to name recognition, he could win Ohio, even against Clinton maybe if people realize she is an evil person.
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Beet
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2014, 10:49:25 AM »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +19%


That's a pretty dramatic difference.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2014, 10:58:07 AM »

Or it could be that people think that Paul is not as progressive as people think he is. He's great with war, civil liberties and marijuana. However, that's like 15% of the issues. He's a Republican's Republican's Republican on everything else. (Where is he on the border crisis?) Simply put he is Pat Buchanan v2.0.  Then again, a very conservative Republican who can triangulate on immigration and drug reform can lock up the southwest and coastal south.



By, 2024, the will probably be an R win without Iowa.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2014, 01:38:18 PM »

These results make more sense for Florida than those of the Q poll of last week. They also make sense for Ohio.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2014, 03:32:35 PM »

So Hillary will win Ohio by either the same margin as Obama did in 2008, or by a much larger margin.

Spectacular news!
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2014, 06:20:52 PM »

So Hillary will win Ohio by either the same margin as Obama did in 2008, or by a much larger margin.

Spectacular news!

You're really making this projection this early based on a hypothetical poll? Talk about confirmation bias.

Dude, I respect you, but this was irrational, especially when neither have thrown their head in the ring yet, with one I suspect not doing so at all.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2014, 06:25:15 PM »

So Hillary will win Ohio by either the same margin as Obama did in 2008, or by a much larger margin.

Spectacular news!

You're really making this projection this early based on a hypothetical poll? Talk about confirmation bias.

Dude, I respect you, but this was irrational, especially when neither have thrown their head in the ring yet, with one I suspect not doing so at all.

Nah, I'm just playing along with the headline being about "Paulmentum" rather than the fact that Hillary has either an 08-esque lead or a blowout lead, which is the real story in this poll. Just putting things back in perspective for a second...
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2014, 06:28:24 PM »

This election could end up being pretty boring if someone like Christie or Bush is the nominee.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2014, 06:30:09 PM »

With this kind of momentum, Paul will obviously obliterate Hillary in all 50 states.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2014, 06:30:21 PM »

I don't think Paul is electable I think he will implode sometime in the primary a la Rick Perry.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2014, 06:32:43 PM »

I don't think Paul is electable I think he will implode sometime in the primary a la Rick Perry.

The primary IS his biggest challenge. I fear the media will try to ignore him like his dad.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2014, 06:34:40 PM »

I don't think Paul is electable I think he will implode sometime in the primary a la Rick Perry.

The primary IS his biggest challenge. I fear the media will try to ignore him like his dad.

It will be difficult to ignore him if the polls continue to show him as the strongest candidate against Hillary. His father was doing very poorly in polls against Obama in 2011/2012.
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2014, 06:36:30 PM »

I don't think Paul is electable I think he will implode sometime in the primary a la Rick Perry.

The primary IS his biggest challenge. I fear the media will try to ignore him like his dad.

He does handle well under the limelight I remember when the plagiarism thing came up he reacted very bad even challenged a reporter to a duel. Does this sound like someone who's ready for the media scrutinize of a Presidential run he's very thin skinned and will implode under further scrutinize. He'll handle his issues like his dad handled the newsletters walking out of interviews and blaming the liberal media.
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Never
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2014, 06:43:07 PM »

I don't think Paul is electable I think he will implode sometime in the primary a la Rick Perry.

The primary IS his biggest challenge. I fear the media will try to ignore him like his dad.

He does handle well under the limelight I remember when the plagiarism thing came up he reacted very bad even challenged a reporter to a duel. Does this sound like someone who's ready for the media scrutinize of a Presidential run he's very thin skinned and will implode under further scrutinize. He'll handle his issues like his dad handled the newsletters walking out of interviews and blaming the liberal media.

Rand Paul was on MSNBC recently, and he didn't seem to do that poorly. He isn't like his father in some respects.
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