Sabato Rating Updates 7/31/14: Whats the matter with KS?

[Miles]

Article.

Favoring Republicans:

HI: Lean D -> Tossup
IL: Tossup -> Lean R
AR: Tossup -> Lean R

Favoring Democrats

KS: Lean R -> Tossup
WI: Likely R -> Lean R

[ElectionsGuy]

It looks pretty weird when Illinois has a better chance of going republican than Kansas. Now he just needs to move Pennsylvania to at least Likely D. Though I disagree with Hawaii, even if Abercrombie somehow wins the primary, I think he still has an edge in winning the general. I would personally put it at Lean D, or Likely D if Ige wins. Other than that, I agree with all the moves.

[Vega]

Hawaii is at least a Lean D.

Once and if Ige wins the Democratic primary against Abercrombie, I'm sure Ige will get some money to spend against Aiona.

[CountyTy90]

I'm still bullish about Rauner's chances in Illinois. I know he's no Bill Brady, but still I think that Quinn will pull out another win in November. And, if I may, I think it will by a larger margin than everyone thinks. This is Illinois, people.

[windjammer]

Sabato is just a joke.
I recall Sabato having put Massachussetts into the lean Rep column for a long time in 2012.

[SWE]

Agree on all, except Hawaii, which is probably Lean D

[SWE]

Sabato is just a joke.
I recall Sabato having put Massachussetts into the lean Rep column for a long time in 2012.

Didn't Brown appear to be the favorite for most of 2012?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How is Georgia not a tossup?

Sabato is just a joke.
I recall Sabato having put Massachussetts into the lean Rep column for a long time in 2012.

Didn't Brown appear to be the favorite for most of 2012?

Yeah, Warren wasn't really ahead til after the DNC when the Democrats started to tune in and come home.

[windjammer]

Sabato is just a joke.
I recall Sabato having put Massachussetts into the lean Rep column for a long time in 2012.

Didn't Brown appear to be the favorite for most of 2012?

Not really,
He didn't have a challenger for a long time. But this is is Massachussets, that could have never been a lean REP race.

[Miles]

How is Georgia not a tossup?

Sabato is just a joke.
I recall Sabato having put Massachussetts into the lean Rep column for a long time in 2012.

Didn't Brown appear to be the favorite for most of 2012?

Yeah, Warren wasn't really ahead til after the DNC when the Democrats started to tune in and come home.

Yeah; after early September (when the DNC was) Brown rarely led in polls.

[SWE]

How is Georgia not a tossup?

The runoff

[IceSpear]

Rauner, Snyder, and Hutchinson all have the same chance of winning as Tom Wolf.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems retain IL/CT/HI
Will pickup FL/KS/PA/RI
Rs win MI/OH/AR/WI/Ga

[Vega]

Will pickup FL/KS/PA/RI

RI won't be a pickup as Lincoln Chafee became a Democrat.

[Never]

I think Georgia's gubernatorial race should have been put in the tossup category as well, considering Sabato rightly felt that Kansas is one. PA should also be Likely D, since Corbett shows no sign of turning that race around; it's clearly in Wolf's favor.

IL, WI, and AR were good calls reflective of the dynamics of each race.

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Overall, I don't disagree with Sabato's updates this time around, but he should have changed GA/PA.

[Vega]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

[Never]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Maybe, but I wouldn't be so quick to move it back to that. I wish Sabato would use Tossup/Tilt D, because that could be where Hawaii would stand as of today without knowing the primary results, but unfortunately, most people don't use that term (I've only seen it from Rothenberg). Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

[Vega]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is clearly Sabato's own ranking. As Cook and Rothenberg hasnt felt the need to update their rankings.

We will see as far as KS and Illinois goes, but Dems should net pickup about 3 seats.

[Never]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.

I found this July 11 report from Hawaii News Now, and apparently Aiona raised $370K, while Abercrombie raised $4.3 million and Ige raised $321K. While Abercrombie has a significant advantage regarding money, Ige keeping the primary competitive shows me that fundraising is not everything in the Aloha State.

[Vega]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.

I found this July 11 report from Hawaii News Now, and apparently Aiona raised $370K, while Abercrombie raised $4.3 million and Ige raised $321K. While Abercrombie has a significant advantage regarding money, Ige keeping the primary competitive shows me that fundraising is not everything in the Aloha State.

Indeed. Hawaii is one of those increasingly rare states where actually meeting people and shaking hands can win votes.

[SWE]

I think Georgia's gubernatorial race should have been put in the tossup category as well, considering Sabato rightly felt that Kansas is one.

Davis doesn't have to win a runoff.

[Never]

I think Georgia's gubernatorial race should have been put in the tossup category as well, considering Sabato rightly felt that Kansas is one.

Davis doesn't have to win a runoff.

True, but Deal is in a weak position, and I could see Jason Carter managing to reach 50% of the vote in November. 

[IceSpear]

Wolf leads by 13-25 points = "lean D"
Martinez leads by 0-7 points = "likely R"

Larry Sabato Logic.

[SWE]

Pennsylvania is the only governor rating Sabato is really far off the mark on tbh