Which state will be closer?
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  Which state will be closer?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which state will be closer?
#1
Florida		  
#2
Michigan		  
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Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: Which state will be closer?  (Read 4159 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: July 31, 2014, 11:15:41 AM »
Clinton's huge leads in Florida call this into question. However, this could merely be a product of Michigan's typical Republican polling advantage.
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 11:23:06 AM »
Florida.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2014, 11:39:07 AM »
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Maistre
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2014, 11:44:08 AM »
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2014, 11:51:24 AM »

This, unless it's a good night for the Republicans and they almost win Michigan. 
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2014, 12:18:54 PM »
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2014, 01:03:02 PM »
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Blue3
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2014, 02:13:21 PM »
Even if Clinton does have a bigger lead in Florida, her victory in Michigan will be known on election night while the public will have to wait for days/weeks for the Florida election results.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2014, 02:15:16 PM »
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2014, 02:35:03 PM »
Overall, Florida, but Michigan may be key. Michigan, Michigan.
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2014, 02:36:47 PM »
Florida, duh
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2014, 03:39:00 PM »
Quote from: DeadPrez on July 31, 2014, 01:36:03 PM
Paul is 46-42 to Clinton atm with a 2 percent MOE

That was Ohio. Hillary is leading Paul by 16 points in Florida.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196127.0

Anyway, most likely Florida. If Hillary does end up winning Florida by a big margin, Michigan would be an even bigger landslide.
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Never
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2014, 03:42:02 PM »
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2014, 03:52:56 PM »
Hillary will win Michigan by double digits she will scrape by in FL maybe 1-2 pt win or loss.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2014, 08:33:23 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 08:50:47 PM by eric82oslo »
It depends on the GOP candidate really. With Jeb Bush as her opponent, Florida will probably remain several percentage points to the right of Michigan. However, with Rand Paul as the nominee, I could see Michigan being a couple of percentage points to the right of Florida actually.

I'd say it's perhaps 60-40 right now. 60% chance that Florida will be closer.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2014, 08:48:53 PM »
Florida. Duh.

Michigan isn't even a battleground state.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2014, 09:57:01 PM »
If Democrats win both states, Florida will likely be closer.

If Republicans win both states, Michigan will likely be closer.

The big question is how much more conservative Florida is than Michigan. Obama won Florida by under one point, and Michigan by 9.5.

Hillary might do better in Florida relative to Michigan, although Republicans are more likely to nominate someone from Florida, which would provide an additional home state advantage.

So Florida's likelier to be closer.
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Dr. Liberty
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2014, 10:17:20 PM »
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badgate
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2014, 12:10:37 AM »
Florida is a state that for at least ten more years will be won by the best Field and GOTV operation, excluding of course national "wave"/landslide elections. Michigan is not.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2014, 01:34:40 AM »
Florida, as always.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2014, 06:48:54 AM »
Considering almost all MI polling is done by terrible no-name R-leaning firms... who the hell knows?

But consider this... MI v FL.
2000 - 5.14 more D
2004 - 8.43 more D
2008 - 13.65 more D
2012 - 8.59 more D
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2014, 08:45:56 AM »
Florida hasn't given any Democrat anything more than a bare margin of victory since 1948, a year in which the Dewey and Thurmond candidacies split the right-leaning vote in Florida.  It has given Republicans huge margins of victory.

The state barely went for LBJ in 1964, dammit! 
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Vega
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2014, 11:00:56 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on August 03, 2014, 08:45:56 AM
The state barely went for LBJ in 1964, dammit! 

Florida in 1964 is very different than the Florida in 2016.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2014, 11:56:42 PM »
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