Crash of 1928 occurs a year early

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's summer 1928. The stock market is booming. It looks like commerce secretary Herbert Hoover will easily win election with his running mate Charles Curtis. The stock market has been on a recent surge (more than in real life). As mid October,  the stock market is at 350. People are taking bets to how many months until it hits 400.  Suddenly on October 22nd,  market starts massively plunging. By Friday November 2nd, it is at 250, and rapidly going down. Some companies have announced layoffs.

Al Smith announces that massive government works are needed to cure this depression.

On Tuesday November 6th, 1928,, voters go to the polls to pick the 32nd President of the United States. What had been a foregone conclusion of an election became:



Al Smith narrowly wins the popular vote 51%-47%, and takes the electoral college by a narrow 267-264. He wins Illinois by an ultra slim 49.8%- 49.7%.

The Senate is 48 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Farmer-Labor party member Senator Henrik Shipstead of MN declined to support either party, giving control to the Democrats.

More Republicans than Democrats win in the House, but many switch to the Democratic party. It finally comes down to 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.

Al Smith pushes through agressive regulation and government programs to stop the worsening recession. He is able to get a few progressive Republicans to support his bills. However, as the recession worsens, he wants more and more, and some of these are blocked by Congress. Voters see the successes of his programs, and give him a solidly Democratic Congress in 1930.  The Prohibition is repealed, and very activist programs are followed.

Independence is granted to the Phillippines. Anti-curroption legislation is passed to curb in the scandals of the last 2 Republican Presidents. Pro-union legislation is passed.

The recession finally starts ending in early 1932.

Hoover/Curtis run again against Smith/Robinson. Hoover complains of the "activist socialist" Al Smith government. Voters soundly reject Hoover's conservatism.


Al Smith beats Herbert Hoover 56%-41% in the popular vote.

In Al Smith's 2nd term, he decided to in addition to fighting for the rights of immigrants, the rights of blacks and Catholics. He comes out strongly against the KKK. Civil rights legislation was passed, over the objection of many of those in the South. However, Al Smith is still popular in the south due to all of the economic progress he has brought them.

Al Smith expresses outrage at the treatment of Jews by the German government. He offers asylum to any jewish refuges. Al Smith says that for now we should pursue isolation, but calls for increases in military spending.

In the 1936 election, Smith chooses a new running mate, Henry Wallace.  Smith promises that this will be his last term. He does somewhat worse in the south, due to some backllash to civil rights, but stll wins every state.

Landon is the Republican candidate. Despite a Literary digest poll showing that Landon would win, Smith wins every single state in a 59%-40% landslide.

Al Smith takes this mandate to pursue more agressively a number of things. He legalizes and regulates abortion. He passes national health care. He passes campaign finance reform.

He starts warning of the danger of Hitler. When Chamberlain offers to appease Hitler, he angrily denounces Chamberlain. In March 1939, Hitler seizes Czechoslovakia. In September of that year, Poland is invaded, and Al Smith declares war on Germany along with Britian and Poland.

[Erc]

Smith would not run for a third term.

Unlike FDR, he actually had some respect for the institutions and traditions of this country.

[A18]

I think you meant the crash of 1929 occurs a year early.

[PBrunsel]

Smith was a social Conservative. He despised birth control. He was last true Democrat in my opinion to ever run for President.

[Rob]

Al Smith announces that massive government works are needed to cure this depression.

Smith ran on a pro-business, small government platform. He hated the New Deal when FDR enacted it, and he became a leading member of the conservative Liberty League.

It should be noted that Smith was an advocate of progressive legislation, but he felt it should be up to the states. He would not have supported a massive federal program, no matter what the circumstances.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Al Smith announces that massive government works are needed to cure this depression.

Smith ran on a pro-business, small government platform. He hated the New Deal when FDR enacted it, and he became a leading member of the conservative Liberty League.

It should be noted that Smith was an advocate of progressive legislation, but he felt it should be up to the states. He would not have supported a massive federal program, no matter what the circumstances.

FDR turned out to be far more liberal than his 1932 election platform.

[Rob]

FDR turned out to be far more liberal than his 1932 election platform.

Yes, but Smith actually believed in the principles of limited government, as proven by his reaction to the New Deal.

[TheWildCard]

A crash before earlier wouldn't really mean Hoover would lose. What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster. If you think that would have happened under Coolidge then this might make sense but I doubt it.

[Rob]

A crash before earlier wouldn't really mean Hoover would lose. What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster. If you think that would have happened under Coolidge then this might make sense but I doubt it.

No. He would have lost without the Bonus March, and by a margin almost as big. That incident may have convinced a few fence-sitters to vote for FDR, but mostly it was just another reason for the majority to vote against Hoover.

[A18]

What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster

I seriously doubt that. It may not have been as crushing a defeat, but I think surely he would have lost.

What's your source?

[TheWildCard]

What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster

I seriously doubt that. It may not have been as crushing a defeat, but I think surely he would have lost.

What's your source?

My College History Professor. What is your source he would have lost anyway?

[PBrunsel]

What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster

I seriously doubt that. It may not have been as crushing a defeat, but I think surely he would have lost.

What's your source?

"This elects me", FDR to Harold Ickes on hearing of the Bonus March Disaster.

[TheWildCard]

What truly caused Hoover the election was the Bonus March disaster

I seriously doubt that. It may not have been as crushing a defeat, but I think surely he would have lost.

What's your source?

"This elects me", FDR to Harold Ickes on hearing of the Bonus March Disaster.

PBRUNSEL ROCKS!

[A18]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Harold+Ickes+%22This+elects+me%22&btnG=Google+Search

[PBrunsel]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Harold+Ickes+%22This+elects+me%22&btnG=Google+Search

See "Encyclopedia of Presidents: Herbert Hoover" Chapter 8, "President Reject"

[Notre Dame rules!]

The depression was a world-wide phenomenon.  Why would Smith's shock plan work any faster than FDR's?  Does Hitler rise to power in Germany in '32?  Does he invade Poland in '38?  


As much as we would have liked to believe that isolationism would protect us during the '30s, we were still caught up  in world events, both politically and economically.  Your what if needs to factor world events into the equation.

[PBrunsel]

Phillip try,

http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=slv1-&p=%22This+Elects+Me%22

[TheWildCard]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Harold+Ickes+%22This+elects+me%22&btnG=Google+Search

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=%22This+elects+me%22+FDR&btnG=Search

[A18]

Thanks. I believed you anyway, I just like to see a source.