Millennials Up For Grabs?

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, we might be heading towards a post-civil rights version of the late Gilded Age/Progressive Era and New Deal Era where the main hot-button issues were Coach vs. First Class-type issues. There were about 30 years from about 1894 to 1930 where the First Class folks got their way and from 1932 to 1968, the folks in Coach got their way. Maybe with millennials and the decline of Evangelicals, we will see a return to that narrative. This happened before in the 19th century when religious thinking dominated politics only for them to eventually overreach with William Jennings Bryan's various crusades and prohibition.

Interesting take.  The Republicans seem to be doing a very good job of setting themselves up as the new Coach party, much better than anyone thought they would in 2009, while the Democrats are coalescing First Class support in a way that would have been equally surprising 20 years ago.  In retrospect, Obama's biggest mistake was trying to be too populist for his base in 2009-10.  Think of modern politics as Massachusetts taking Arkansas out to dinner every other day and picking up the tab, but Arkansas actually resents the attention and just wants a chance to make its own way.

So was Bush's presidency equivalent to a Bryan win?  There was also notable movement backward/stalling out on social issues in the Gilded Age.  I'm not sure if that would carry over to the present, but America circa 1950 was arguably more socially conservative than America circa 1880 and things certainly got more socially conservative from 1880-1920.  But this time around, business interests are firmly on the socially liberal side, so I'm not sure any of that would carry over.     

[Mehmentum]

2014 exit polls on this:

The 18-29 age group is still the most Democratic age group.  They voted for Democrats 54% to 43%.  However, this margin is 2 points less than it was in 2010.

More than half of this age group should be under 25, which has been proposed to be more open to Republicans.  A two point shift isn't negligible, but it also isn't groundbreaking. These new millennials (at least so far) are significantly more Democratic than the general electorate.

Democrats increased their performance among the 30-44 age group by 6% (winning them 50% to 48%).  This is likely due to millennials aging into the group.

Interestingly, Democrats did 6 points better with the 65+ age group compared to 2010.  There was probably nowhere for them to go but up after 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/04/us/politics/2014-exit-polls.html?_r=0#us/2014

[Rockefeller GOP]

2014 exit polls on this:

The 18-29 age group is still the most Democratic age group.  They voted for Democrats 54% to 43%.  However, this margin is 2 points less than it was in 2010.

More than half of this age group should be under 25, which has been proposed to be more open to Republicans.  A two point shift isn't negligible, but it also isn't groundbreaking. These new millennials (at least so far) are significantly more Democratic than the general electorate.

Democrats increased their performance among the 30-44 age group by 6% (winning them 50% to 48%).  This is likely due to millennials aging into the group.

Interestingly, Democrats did 6 points better with the 65+ age group compared to 2010.  There was probably nowhere for them to go but up after 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/04/us/politics/2014-exit-polls.html?_r=0#us/2014

The problem with the GOP isn't that it's not seen as "up to the times enough" with young voters.  It seems younger voters at least empathize with some ideals of get-out-of-my-bedroom AND get-out-of-my-wallet philosophies ... It's with demographics.  Republicans won White young voters; they got killed with minority young voters.

[hopper]

2014 exit polls on this:

The 18-29 age group is still the most Democratic age group.  They voted for Democrats 54% to 43%.  However, this margin is 2 points less than it was in 2010.

More than half of this age group should be under 25, which has been proposed to be more open to Republicans.  A two point shift isn't negligible, but it also isn't groundbreaking. These new millennials (at least so far) are significantly more Democratic than the general electorate.

Democrats increased their performance among the 30-44 age group by 6% (winning them 50% to 48%).  This is likely due to millennials aging into the group.

Interestingly, Democrats did 6 points better with the 65+ age group compared to 2010.  There was probably nowhere for them to go but up after 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/04/us/politics/2014-exit-polls.html?_r=0#us/2014

The problem with the GOP isn't that it's not seen as "up to the times enough" with young voters.  It seems younger voters at least empathize with some ideals of get-out-of-my-bedroom AND get-out-of-my-wallet philosophies ... It's with demographics.  Republicans won White young voters; they got killed with minority young voters.

Well ok  get out of my bedroom  I might agree with you there. Get Out Of my Wallet-Can you explain further?

[hopper]

Let's not forget that the demographic explosion of minorities skews heavily young and thus more likely to be Democratic. Minority births reached a majority in 2011 , and around 55-60% of today's under 18 group is minority. It is projected that the under 18 cohort will reach minority majority status later this decade.

The young vote will be skewing even more black and brown each election cycle , furthering their Democratic lean.

Its not so much the minority population growing(i.e. Hispanics.) Its where they live which is mostly in cities like Denver, Los Angeles, New York City, and Chicago. As we all know the GOP performs poorly in cities. I think Obama over performed a bit with Minority Voters in 2012 since Romney turned off  alot of minority voters with a lack of vision for the country and rhetoric like self-deport.

[hopper]

From the polling I've seen Millennials are simply more socially liberal than previous generations (this holds for Democratic and Republican Millennials too). On economic issues their about the same as past generations.

Yeah but the thing is they vote on the social issues.

[hopper]

I think that the Millennial cohort (1977 to 1992 births) will be solidly in the Democratic column for quite some time to come, but the post-1993 cohort will probably lean right. 

As a 1981 millenial I beg to differ personally.

The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall). 
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.

1. I connected to Reagan as my president
2. I blame both Republicans and Democrats for the nations problems though I concede the point regarding Clinton/Gingrich terms of economic prosperity
3. I'm socially conservative
4. I do take my faith seriously
5. Unstable home life is an understatement but I plan on changing as much of that as I can
6. Your right on that one
7. Um I don't think so
8. See #7

I was born in Novermber 1979 and I see Reagan, Bush HW, and Clinton as my presidents. I didn't like Bush W. and I don't like Obama.

Like you I do blame Dems and Republicans nearly equally for the countries problems.

[hopper]

I don't see Millennials shifting to the actual right. The GOP keeps hoping that there will be a 'candidate' ... it keeps showing they just don't get it. As long as the GOP's policy platform remains as ridiculous as it is, they've not got a hope.

Hillary will be fine.

Who reads policy platforms? Its not economic issues the GOP is losing on. Its social issues like SSM and some Hispanics because of the deep-divide in the party on immigration reform. Also it doesn't help like I said before so many young people are moving to cities where the GOP has barely any presence on the local level.

[hopper]

Lets see...a survey Pre-Presidential-Election 2012 survey conducted by by American University and Loyola Marymount surveyed 4,000 combined High School and College Students. Here is what they found:

Summary of Results(Among College Students):

                    Obama          Romney        Other(Candidate)            Wouldn't Vote

Overall           54%              24%                         8%                                    13%

Women          56%              21%                         8%                                    14%

Men               52%              26%                         9%                                    12%

Swing States 59%              23%                         6%                                    11%

Women          63%              18%                         6%                                    11%

Men                53%              29%                        6%                                     10%

NOTE: Sample was 1,023 men and 1,097 college women. 465 live in swing states(CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI.)

No gender gap overall except in swing states were Female College Students were 10 points more likely to support Obama than Romney.

High School Students:

                      Obama          Romney              Other(Candidate)                Wouldn't Vote

Overall           45%               36%                   6%                                       12%

Women          45%               35%                   7%                                       13%

Men                46%               37%                   6%                                       11%

Swing States  44%               37%                   5%                                       14%

Women           46%               35%                   5%                                       14%

Men                 42%               39%                   4%                                       14%

NOTE: Sample was 1,121 Male and 1,045 female high school students. 529 of these students live in Swing States(CO, FL IA, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI.)

High School Students in 2012 were more Republican than College Students were overall There is no gender gap with High School Students. In Swing States High School Females were 9 points more likely to support Obama in swing states.

Courtesy: American University.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans can take comfort in the fact that they'll only be losing new voters by 10 points instead of 30 points. 

[hopper]

Republicans can take comfort in the fact that they'll only be losing new voters by 10 points instead of 30 points. 

At least 10 points is more manageable than 30  and its something to work with.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Were the high schoolers random? If so then the stats are almost useless, 80% of high schoolers have zero political awareness, for college that drops to around 50%. *

*-made up numbers

[hopper]

Were the high schoolers random? If so then the stats are almost useless, 80% of high schoolers have zero political awareness, for college that drops to around 50%. *

*-made up numbers

Well in 2004 High Schoolers would have voted for John Kerry. Sure enough 4 years later the Dems won the presidency. I don't know the details of the poll to be honest other than what I wrote for the details of the poll in the posting of the poll itself.

The college student poll was 30 points in favor Obama and Obama won the 18-24 age group 60-37/38% over Romney. Not that far off.

[hopper]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

[Never]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

What are they going to do, vote Democrat?

No, but a new third party catering to these upset voters could very well pop up, and while that party might not have a prayer of winning nationally, it would throw a wrench in the GOP's strength.

[Mehmentum]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

What are they going to do, vote Democrat?

It could decrease turnout among those groups.

[The Mikado]

We are rapidly hitting the point where millennials aren't going to be the "youth" generation in the election anymore. If youth is defined as 18-24, anyone born before 1992 won't be a youth voter in 2016...push it to 18-29 and 1987 becomes the line. There will be people born in 1996 who are voting, and people who were born in 1996 aren't millennials by any definition I've heard (usually something like born 1982-1995). The people on the 1982 side of that balance will be in their mid-30s.

[Mehmentum]

We are rapidly hitting the point where millennials aren't going to be the "youth" generation in the election anymore. If youth is defined as 18-24, anyone born before 1992 won't be a youth voter in 2016...push it to 18-29 and 1987 becomes the line. There will be people born in 1996 who are voting, and people who were born in 1996 aren't millennials by any definition I've heard (usually something like born 1982-1995). The people on the 1982 side of that balance will be in their mid-30s.

Definitely.  The Democrats increased their performance in the 30-44 age group by 6 points between 2010 and 2012.

[hopper]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

What are they going to do, vote Democrat?

It could decrease turnout among those groups.

Yeah Social Conservatives are a big voting block for the GOP.

I think if the GOP changed their tune on social issues they wouldn't have to worry about Northern Virginia Dem trend so much. The voters that live there are moderate to liberal on social issues.  Still even if the GOP moderated on social issues I don't see the state being a lock for the GOP like it was from 1968-2004. It would still be a "fair fight state" like Ohio is now.

[hopper]

We are rapidly hitting the point where millennials aren't going to be the "youth" generation in the election anymore. If youth is defined as 18-24, anyone born before 1992 won't be a youth voter in 2016...push it to 18-29 and 1987 becomes the line. There will be people born in 1996 who are voting, and people who were born in 1996 aren't millennials by any definition I've heard (usually something like born 1982-1995). The people on the 1982 side of that balance will be in their mid-30s.

I don't know a 1996er could remember going to her first Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana concert. A 2000er could remember going to her first Justin Bieber concert. I do think Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus are part of Millennial Culture too.

[hopper]

Were the high schoolers random? If so then the stats are almost useless, 80% of high schoolers have zero political awareness, for college that drops to around 50%. *

*-made up numbers

Well in 2004 High Schoolers would have voted for John Kerry. Sure enough 4 years later the Dems won the presidency. I don't know the details of the poll to be honest other than what I wrote for the details of the poll in the posting of the poll itself.

The college student poll was 30 points in favor Obama and Obama won the 18-24 age group 60-37/38% over Romney. Not that far off.

The polling you posted looks very accurate.

I have a funny anecdote to post about the 2004 election. So I was in elementary school in a mostly (probaly 60%+) minority school, as most are where I live. Interestingly enough, we had a class election, and George Bush WON by a couple votes. Means absolutely nothing but it's kind of funny to look back on. That was a really high turnout election looking back. Maybe people wanted to avoid another 2000 type deal.

Fast forward 4 years, and Obama won by like 40 points. Obviously not the same people, but still indicative of a shift in some ways. Bush was actually fairly popular in 2004, but by 2008 Republicanism was dead here.

2012, this time in high school. Obama won by about 50 points this time. And sure enough, Maryland is trending D in Presidential elections. 

My votes: Bush 2004, Obama 2008, Obama 2012

In hindsight: Kerry, Obama, Obama

I remember being down on Bush W. in 2008. His approval rating was like 34% on Election Day 2008. I did vote for him in 2004 and Obama in 2008 like yourself. I was one of those young people well I was 28-29 at the time that was very optimistic about Obama but I just fell out of the coalition that voted for him the first time but didn't the second time. I voted for Gary Johnson in 2012.

[IceSpear]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

If the Republicans become Moderate to Liberal on social issues they could make Michigan and maybe Wisconsin competitive and even make inroads in Illinois, Connecticut, and Maine. At the same time their base in the Deep South would be very upset if the party moderated on social issues.

What are they going to do, vote Democrat?

It could decrease turnout among those groups.

It wouldn't matter because those states are locked in. Third-party, sure it's possible, but in a Presidential election they would give their votes to the Republican anyway.

It's not like only deep red states have a SoCon base though. Ohio and Florida, among others, also have a SoCon bloc. Maybe that could be made up with moderates, but it's a big risk to take.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

I forget but I was reading a study somewhere of white voters (black voters were consistent regardless of generation) that showed a sloping curve from generation to generation. The Greatest Generation tended to lean liberal because they had a memory of the great depression and FDR but then the Silents too young to remember that leaned conservative, older Boomers (born pre 53) obviously leaned liberal whereas the younger ones were more conservative and Generation X more so before Millenials born in the 80s and early 90s were more liberal. I think that if that trend continues you might see some of the younger ones starting to lean libertarian-conservative again.

I know that when I was in high school the popular anti-establishment sentiment was associated with hating Bush and the neocons and a rebellious kid back then would naturally have leaned left yet I feel that today with Obama in the White House, that same type of kid pissed off about big brother among other things that same kid would be more likely to lean towards being a Paulite and those are the types that will vote in the GOP primaries for Rand Paul in 2016.

[hopper]

I forget but I was reading a study somewhere of white voters (black voters were consistent regardless of generation) that showed a sloping curve from generation to generation. The Greatest Generation tended to lean liberal because they had a memory of the great depression and FDR but then the Silents too young to remember that leaned conservative, older Boomers (born pre 53) obviously leaned liberal whereas the younger ones were more conservative Generation X more so before Millenials born in the 80s and early 90s were more liberal. I think that if that trend continues you might see some of the younger ones starting to lean libertarian-conservative again.

I know that when I was in high school the popular anti-establishment sentiment was associated with hating Bush and the neocons and a rebellious kid back then would naturally have leaned left yet I feel that today with Obama in the White House, that same type of kid pissed off about big brother among other things that same kid would be more likely to lean towards being a Paulite and those are the types that will vote in the GOP primaries for Rand Paul in 2016.

Could have been the "Pew Research Study of Voters by Generation"(not that exact title maybe but...) and what President the select group of voters grew up under(went to HS during that presidents tenure) and how they voted  in future Presidential Elections.

[hopper]

However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

Again, the only big-ticket social issue Republicans are badly losing on is gay marriage. Abortion, affirmative action, and gun control are more or less still 50/50 issues.

The problem that Republicans have with abortion is that they keep trivializing rape and making dumb sh_t comments about women and their bodies, or pushing the most extreme restrictions as opposed to the more accepted "illegal in most cases".

They can remain pro-life, anti-affirmative action, and pro-gun otherwise and still remain competitive on economic and foreign policy issues. I wouldn't be surprised if the next GOP President makes some move with a GOP Congress to do something about restricting abortion; the effects it has will depend on how far they go with it. We've seen this happen with many Republican governors, where they enact anti-union and anti-abortion initiatives (barring Walker and a few obvious others) and still remain popular based on other actions (I specifically have Kasich in mind here, but there are others).

The stupid stuff said about women's health by GOP politicians/candidates was 2012. The "War On Women" rhetoric the Dems payed for at the polls in 2014 not the Republicans. I do think the Dems will try a "war on women-lite strategy" in 2016 but if it fails they won't do "The War On Women" anymore.

I don't see the GOP trying to ram an abortion restriction issue through Congress with a GOP President but you never know. The Dems will block it.