California Senate Elections, 1992

[CountyTy90]

1992 seems like a terrible year for California Republicans. On the presidential and senate levels especially. But what if the candidates had been different?

Let's say...

Ed Zschau won against Alan Cranston in 1986? In 1992 he'd be running for reelection against Barbara Boxer. In the actual results, Boxer beat Bruce Herschensohn a margin of 48%-43%, which I think is impressive on Herschensohn's part given the national climate for Republicans. Does Zschau win reelection? What is the margin?

When Pete Wilson took office as governor, he appointed State Senator John Seymour or Orange County to his Senate seat. Suppose Seymour was just a lame duck and decided not to run again in 1992. Let's say (even though highly unlikely) George Deukmejian decides to run. Does he beat Dianne Feinstein? What would the margin be?

Thoughts?

[CapoteMonster]

Deukmeijan would win based 50-48 on his popularity IMO and I think Ed Zsachu wins by 5-10 points because he would've done better in the Bay Area due this liberal social stances. Clinton wouldn't have that big of a down-ballot effect considering CA was also one of Perot's better states. Crime was one of the top issues in the 90s and perception would help the Republicans too, (especially Deukmeijan). GHWB didn't get crushed in the CA cities and suburbs as bad as you'd think given today's political climate and I think crime is a big reason why. Heck Hershenson may have beat Boxer had it not been for a controversy about him visiting strip clubs breaking out a few days before the election. Regardless, it would be foolish to assume Republicans would sill hold both of these seats today or that Zsachu and Deukmeijan would even soften the CA GOP's collapse among Bay Area and Hispanic voters.

[CountyTy90]

I assume Deukmejian would win reelection in 1994 with Wilson's landslide, had he decided to run again. I could see him retiring in 2000 though, essentially giving the seat to the Democrats.

As for Zschau, I could see him running again in 1998 and losing. But what counties would he win in the Bay Area in 1992? Contra Costa and San Mateo? I know he's a moderate Republican; would he break 40% in Los Angeles County?

[CapoteMonster]

Zsachu probably wouldn't win any large Bay Area counties except Napa and Contra Costa but I don't he'd get like annihilated Herschensohn did in the Bay Area and would probably break 40% in Santa Clara since he represented it's district.

As for for L.A county Herschensohn won 39.6% there and that's where he was accused of visiting strip joints frequently and admitted to doing it once so I think Zsachu would've got close to 45% there. It's funny how another late campaign controversy in the 94 senate election definitely cost the Republicans Feinstein's seat.