Cris's Calculations - Senate 2014

[Senator Cris]

Is for about 3 years now that I cover the american politics in an italian blog of politic and polls.
I have covered the 2012 GOP presidential primaries, the 2012 presidential elections, the 2013 gubernatorial elections and now the 2014 elections and the 2016 presidential elections.
For this year, I update the readers with calculations about the Senate races and Gubernatorial races.
In this page there are all the my latest posts, in this page there are all the my old posts.
This post (updated today) contains the recents calculations.

SOLID: Lead >10%
LIKELY: Lead between 6%-10%
LEAN: Lead between 3%-6%
TOSS-UP: Lead %

SENATE - Updated today

DEM SOLID – 10 seats
DELAWARE – No Calculation
RHODE ISLAND – No Calculation
HAWAII – Schatz (D) 61% Cavasso (R) 23,2% Others 15,8% – Schatz (D) + 37,8%
MASSACHUSETTS – Markey (D) 61,4% Addivinola (R) 36,4% Others 2,3% – Markey (D) + 25%
VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 58% Gillespie (R) 37,8% Others 4,2% – Warner (D) + 20,2%
NEW MEXICO – Udall (D) 56,6% Weh (R) 40,7% Others 2,7% – Udall (D) + 15,9%
OREGON – Merkley (D) 55,3% Wheby (R) 41,4% Others 3,2% – Merkley (D)  13,9%
ILLINOIS – Durbin (D) 56,2% Oberweis (R) 43,4% Others 0,4% – Durbin (D) + 12,8%
MINNESOTA – Franken (D) 55,4% McFadden (R) 42,6% Others 2% – Franken (D) + 12,8%
NEW JERSEY – Booker (D) 53,4% Bell (R) 41,3% Others 5,4% – Booker (D) + 12,1%

DEM LIKELY – 1 seat
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Shaheen (D) 54,3% Brown (R) 44,5% Others 1,2% – Shaheen (D) + 9,8%

DEM LEAN – 1 seat
MICHIGAN – Peters (D) 51,6% Land (R) 47,2% Others 1,2% – Peters (D) + 4,4%

TOSS-UP – 8 seats
ALASKA - Begich (D) 48,2% Sullivan (R) 45,8% Others 6% – Begich (D) + 2,4%
Begich (D) 47,4% Treadwell 44% Others 8,5% – Begich (D) + 3,4%
NORTH CAROLINA - Hagan (D) 48,2% Tillis (R) 45,8% Others 6% – Hagan (D) + 2,4%
COLORADO – Udall (D) 49,4% Gardner (R) 48,2% Others 2,5% – Udall (D) + 1,2%
IOWA – Braley (D) 50,1% Ernst (R) 49,1% Others 0,8% –  Braley (D) + 1%
ARKANSAS – Cotton (R) 49,1% Pryor (D) 48,5% Others 2,4% – Cotton (R) + 0,6%
LOUISIANA (Runoff) – Cassidy (R) 50,7% Landrieu (D) 49,3% – Cassidy (R) + 1,4%
KENTUCKY – McConnell (R) 49,3% Grimes (D) 47,9% Others 2,8% – McConnel (R) + 1,4%
GEORGIA – Perdue (R) 49,5% Nunn (D) 47,4% Others 3,1% – Perdue (R) + 2,1%

REP LEAN – 0 seats

REP LIKELY – 0 seats

REP SOLID – 16 seats
WEST VIRGINIA – Moore Capito (R) 55,2% Tennant (D) 43% Others 1,7% – Moore Capito (R) + 12,2%
KANSAS – Roberts (R) 49,8% Taylor (D) 37,5% Others 12,7% – Roberts (R) + 12,3%
MONTANA – Daines (R) 54,6% Walsh (D) 41,7% Others 3,8% – Daines (R) + 12,9%
SOUTH CAROLINA – Graham (R) 51,4% Hutto (D) 37,8% Others 10,8% – Graham (R) + 13,6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Special – Scott (R) 56,1% Dickerson (D) 41,5% Others 2,4% – Scott (R) + 14,6%
TENNESSEE – Alexander (R) 50,1% Ball (D) 34,4% Others 15,5% – Alexander (R) + 15,7%
MISSISSIPPI – Cochran (R) 52,6% Childers (D) 35,1% Others 12,3% – Cochran (R) + 17,5%
TEXAS – Cornyn (R) 54,6% Alamel (D) 37,1% Others 8,3% – Cornyn (R) + 17,5%
SOUTH DAKOTA – Rounds (R) 52,3% Weiland (D) 32,9% Others 14,8% – Rounds (R) + 19,4%
NEBRASKA – Sasse (R) 60,3% Domina (D) 37,4% Others 2,3% – Sasse (R) + 22,9%
OKLAHOMA Special – Lankford (R) 58,9% Johnson (D) 34,7% Others 6,3% – Lankford (R) + 24,2%
OKLAHOMA – Inhofe (R) 58,5% Silverstine (D) 31,8% Others 9,7% – Inhofe (R) + 26,7%
IDAHO – Risch (R) 67% Mitchell (D) 31,9% Others 1,1% – Risch (R) + 35,1%
MAINE – Collins (R) 72,9% Bellows (D) 25,8% Others 1,4% – Collins (R) + 47,1%
WYOMING – Enzi (R) 71% Hardy (D) 23,7% Others 5,4% – Enzi (R) + 47,3%
ALABAMA – Sessions (R) 100% – Sessions (R) + 100%

DEMOCRATS 46 seats
REPUBLICANS 46 seats
TOSS-UP 6 seats

Without TOSS-UP seats:

DEMOCRATS 50 seats
REPUBLICANS 50 seats

[Free Bird]

Why such a Begich lead? Was that YouGov poll used?

[Vega]

Why such a Begich lead? Was that YouGov poll used?

Begich has been leading polls, and will probably win. Don't under-estimate him.

[Never]

Why such a Begich lead? Was that YouGov poll used?

Begich has been leading polls, and will probably win. Don't under-estimate him.

Begich is definitely strong, but competitive Alaska races just seem so hard to predict most of the time.

If one Democratic senator from a Romney 2012 state holds on, it will probably be Begich, with Hagan being second most likely.

[Free Bird]

If there is one I would like to hang on as long as the majority is gained, it's Begich.

[Vega]

If there is one I would like to hang on as long as the majority is gained, it's Begich.

Why?

[7,052,770]

I think you're overestimating third-party strength in a lot of those races...

[Senator Cris]

I think you're overestimating third-party strength in a lot of those races...

This is true, but I think that with the time the percentage of indipendents/third will fall in a lot of states.

[Free Bird]

If there is one I would like to hang on as long as the majority is gained, it's Begich.

Why?

The man is what we call a moderate and actually calls for the interests of his state, not from lobbying to my knowledge. We need more of those. Now I'm waiting for NHLiberal to show up and explain how Begich is somehow far-left.

[IceSpear]

VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 58% Gillespie (R) 37,8% Others 4,2% – Warner (D) + 20,2%

[Vega]

VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 58% Gillespie (R) 37,8% Others 4,2% – Warner (D) + 20,2%

That's what Sabato would call it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks good! Though we'll just have to see with Alaska polling how it turns out on election day.

[Dixie Reborn]

If there is one I would like to hang on as long as the majority is gained, it's Begich.

I'd prefer that Landrieu and Pryor stay despite Republicans retaking the Senate.

[Senator Cris]

Update with my new post.

SOLID: Lead >10%
LIKELY: Lead between 6%-10%
LEAN: Lead between 3%-6%
TOSS-UP: Lead %

SENATE - Updated today

DEM SOLID – 10 seats
VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 58,8% Gillespie (R) 36,7% Others 4,6% – Warner (D) + 22,1% (+ 1,9% since last update)
OREGON – Merkley (D) 55,7% Wheby (R) 39,9% Others 4,4% – Merkley (D)  15,8%  (+ 1,9%)
ILLINOIS – Durbin (D) 56,1% Oberweis (R) 43,6% Others 0,3% – Durbin (D) + 12,5% (- 0,3%)
NEW JERSEY – Booker (D) 54,3% Bell (R) 42,4% Others 3,3% – Booker (D) + 11,9% (- 0,2%)

DEM LIKELY – 1 seat

DEM LEAN – 1 seat

TOSS-UP – 8 seats
ALASKA - Begich (D) 48,2% Sullivan (R) 45,8% Others 6% – Begich (D) + 2,4% (=)
Begich (D) 47,7% Treadwell 43,5% Others 8,8% – Begich (D) + 4,2% (+ 0,8%)
Begich (D) 53,2% Treadwell 36,7% Others 10,1% – Begich (D) + 16,5% (- 2%)
NORTH CAROLINA - Hagan (D) 47,7% Tillis (R) 46,2% Others 6,2% – Hagan (D) + 1,7% (- 0,7%)
IOWA – Braley (D) 49,6% Ernst (R) 48,7% Others 1,7% –  Braley (D) + 0,9% (- 0,1%)
ARKANSAS – Cotton (R) 48,9% Pryor (D) 48,2% Others 2,9% – Cotton (R) + 0,7% (+ 0,1%) 
KENTUCKY – McConnell (R) 49,2% Grimes (D) 47,5% Others 3,3% – McConnel (R) + 1,7% (+ 0,3%)
GEORGIA – Perdue (R) 50% Nunn (D) 47,3% Others 2,7% – Perdue (R) + 2,7% (+ 0,3%)

REP LEAN – 0 seats

REP LIKELY – 0 seats

REP SOLID – 16 seats
KANSAS – Roberts (R) 49,4% Taylor (D) 39,2% Others 11,4% – Roberts (R) + 10,2% (- 2,1%)
SOUTH DAKOTA – Rounds (R) 50,9% Weiland (D) 32,9% Others 16,2% – Rounds (R) + 18% (- 1,4%)
TEXAS – Cornyn (R) 55,7% Alamel (D) 36,4% Others 7,9% – Cornyn (R) + 19,3% (+ 1,8%)

DEMOCRATS 46 seats (=)
REPUBLICANS 46 seats (=)
TOSS-UP 6 seats (=)

Without TOSS-UP seats:

DEMOCRATS 50 seats (=)
REPUBLICANS 50 seats (=)

[Free Bird]

Still way too generous to Dems

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Still way too generous to Dems

How so?

[NHLiberal]

Still way too generous to Dems

Haha if something shows a 50-50 Senate and you say it's way too generous to the Dems, does that mean you think there's absolutely no chance whatsoever of Dems maintaining the Senate?

[Free Bird]

Still way too generous to Dems

Haha if something shows a 50-50 Senate and you say it's way too generous to the Dems, does that mean you think there's absolutely no chance whatsoever of Dems maintaining the Senate?

Because from the looks of it, he is still using the YouGov polls

[Flake]

Still way too generous to Dems

Haha if something shows a 50-50 Senate and you say it's way too generous to the Dems, does that mean you think there's absolutely no chance whatsoever of Dems maintaining the Senate?

Because from the looks of it, he is still using the YouGov polls

The YouGov polls were very good for Republicans, there's a 20 point difference between YouGov and other polls in Kansas, about five between YouGov and other polls in Florida, etc, so it's pretty obvious that those polls are not helping Democrats.

[Senator Cris]

Still way too generous to Dems

Haha if something shows a 50-50 Senate and you say it's way too generous to the Dems, does that mean you think there's absolutely no chance whatsoever of Dems maintaining the Senate?

Because from the looks of it, he is still using the YouGov polls

With the YouGov polls, the situation was 50-50. With new polls, the situation is 50-50 but the Republicans are recovering in IA, NC and expand lead in AR, KY and GA.

[Senator Cris]

DEM SOLID – 10 seats
HAWAII – Schatz (D) 69,5% Cavasso (R) 30,2% Others 0,4% – Schatz (D) + 39,3%
MASSACHUSETTS – Markey (D) 62,9% Herr (R) 35% Others 2,1% – Markey (D) + 27,9%
RHODE ISLAND – Reed (D) 61,2% Zaccaria (R) 37,6% Others 1,2% – Reed (D) + 23,6%
VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 58,4% Gillespie (R) 37,4% Others 4,2% – Warner (D) + 21%
NEW MEXICO – Udall (D) 58,1% Weh (R) 40% Others 1,8% – Udall (D) + 18,1%
DELAWARE – Coons (D) 57,1% Wade (R) 41,7% Others 1,2% – Coons (D) + 15,4%
NEW JERSEY – Booker (D) 56,3% Bell (R) 41,1% Others 2,6% – Booker (D) + 15,2%
OREGON – Merkley (D) 55,5% Wheby (R) 41,1% Others 3,4% – Merkley (D) + 14,4%
ILLINOIS – Durbin (D) 55,2% Oberweis (R) 43,5% Others 1,3% – Durbin (D) + 11,7%
MINNESOTA – Franken (D) 54,2% McFadden (R) 43,6% Others 2,2% – Franken (D) + 10,6%

DEM LIKELY – 1 seat
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Shaheen (D) 52,3% Brown (R) 45,9% Others 1,8% – Shaheen (D) + 6,4%

DEM LEAN – 1 seat
MICHIGAN – Peters (D) 51,5% Land (R) 46,7% Others 1,8% – Peters (D) + 4,8%

TOSS-UP – 7 seats
NORTH CAROLINA - Hagan (D) 48% Tillis (R) 45,7% Others 6,3% – Hagan (D) + 2,3%
COLORADO – Udall (D) 49,8% Gardner (R) 47,5% Others 2,8% – Udall (D) + 2,3%
IOWA – Braley (D) 49,6% Ernst (R) 48,5% Others 2,1% – Braley (D) + 1,1%
KANSAS – Orman (I) 42,2% Roberts (R) 40,6% Others 17,2% – Orman (I) + 1,6%
ALASKA – Sullivan (R) 48,3% Begich (D) 46,6% Others 5,1% – Sullivan (R) + 1,7%
ARKANSAS – Cotton (R) 49,5% Pryor (D) 47,7% Others 2,8% – Cotton (R) + 1,8%
LOUISIANA – Cassidy (R) 50,9% Landrieu (D) 49,1% – Cassidy (R) + 1,8%

REP LEAN – 2 seats
GEORGIA – Perdue (R) 49,5% Nunn (D) 46,5% Others 3,9% – Perdue (R) + 3%
KENTUCKY – McConnell (R) 49,7% Grimes (D) 46,2% Others 4% – McConnell (R) + 3,5%

REP LIKELY – 0 seats

REP SOLID – 16 seats
SOUTH CAROLINA – Graham (R) 51,7% Hutto (D) 36,5% Others 11,8% – Graham (R) + 15,2%
SOUTH DAKOTA - Rounds (R) 49,5% Weiland (D) 32,9% Others 17,5% – Rounds (R) + 16,6%
TENNESSEE – Alexander (R) 52,1% Ball (D) 35,5% Others 12,4% – Alexander (R) + 16,6%
MISSISSIPPI – Cochran (R) 52,9% Childers (D) 35,4% Others 11,7% – Cochran (R) + 17,5%
WEST VIRGINIA – Capito (R) 58,5% Tennant (D) 40,6% Others 0,9% – Capito (R) + 17,9%
TEXAS – Cornyn (R) 56% Alameel (D) 37,7% Others 6,3% – Cornyn (R) + 18,3%
MONTANA – Daines (R) 59,6% Curtis (D) 39,2% Others 1,2% – Daines (R) + 20,4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Special – Scott (R) 60,6% Dickerson (D) 38,9% Others 0,5% – Scott (R) + 21,7%
NEBRASKA – Sasse (R) 62,3% Domina (D) 35,9% Others 1,7% – Sasse (R) + 26,4%
OKLAHOMA Special – Lankford (R) 65,2% Johnson (D) 31,2% Others 3,6% – Lankford (R) + 34%
OKLAHOMA – Inhofe (R) 65,9% Silverstine (D) 31,5% Others 2,6% – Inhofe (R) + 34,4%
IDAHO – Risch (R) 67,5% Mitchell (D) 31% Others 1,5% – Risch (R) + 36,5%
MAINE – Collins (R) 68,1% Bellows (D) 29,6% Others 2,3% – Collins (R) + 38,5%
WYOMING – Enzi (R) 70,3% Hardy (D) 25,4% Others 4,3% – Enzi (R) + 44,9%
ALABAMA – Sessions (R) 100% – Sessions (R) + 100%


REPUBBLICANS 47 seats
DEMOCRATS] 46 seats
TOSS-UP 7 seats

WITHOUT TOSS-UPS:

REPUBBLICANS 50 seats
DEMOCRATS 49 seats
ORMAN 1 seat

[windjammer]

Great job Cris,
as always .

[backtored]

I don't think Orman is going to win.  But he is certainly a serious enough contender to force Pat Roberts to upend his campaign team.  And I suspect that LA, AR, and AK probably won't be nearly as close to 1 or 2 points.  Otherwise I would generally agree.

[The Other Castro]

What about the runoff in Georgia since you have Perdue getting under 50%?

[Senator Cris]

What about the runoff in Georgia since you have Perdue getting under 50%?

There are only polls for November, not for eventual runoff.