Cris's Calculations - Governors 2014

[Senator Cris]

Is for about 3 years now that I cover the american politics in an italian blog of politic and polls.
I have covered the 2012 GOP presidential primaries, the 2012 presidential elections, the 2013 gubernatorial elections and now the 2014 elections and the 2016 presidential elections.
For this year, I update the readers with calculations about the Senate  races and Gubernatorial races.
In this page there are all the my latest posts, in this page there are all the my old posts.
This post (updated today) contains the recents calculations.

SOLID: Lead >10%
LIKELY: Lead between 6%-10%
LEAN: Lead between 3%-6%
TOSS-UP: Lead %

GOVERNORS - Updated today

DEM SOLID – 9 states
MINNESOTA - No Calculation
NEW YORK – Cuomo (D) 66,4% Astorino (R) 29,3% Others 4,2% – Cuomo (D) + 37,1%
VERMONT – Shumlin (D) 55,3% Milne (R) 28,7% Others 16% – Shumlin (D) + 26,6%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Hassan (D) 61,5% Havenstein (R) 36,9% Others 1,6% – Hassan (D) + 24,6%
PENNSYLVANIA – Wolf (D) 60,9% Corbett (R) 37,3% Others 1,8% – Wolf (D) + 23,6%
CALIFORNIA – Brown (D) 60,7% Kashkari (R) 38,1% Others 1,2% – Brown (D) + 22,6%
MARYLAND – Brown (D) 54,8% Hogan (R) 40,1% Others 5% – Brown (D) + 14,7%
MASSACHUSETTS – Coakley (D) 52,1% Baker (R) 39,6% Others 8,3% – Coakley (D) + 12,5%
OREGON – Kitzhaber (D) 54,5% Richardson (R) 42,8% Others 2,8% – Kitzhaber (D) + 11,7%

DEM LIKELY – 1 state
RHODE ISLAND – No Calculation

DEM LEAN – 2 states
MAINE – Michaud (D) 46,1% LePage (R) 40,2% Others 13,7% – Michaud (D) + 5,9%
COLORADO – Hickenlooper (D) 50,2% Beauprez (R) 47% Others 2,8% – Hickenlooper (D) + 3,2%

TOSS-UP – 7 states
FLORIDA – Crist (D) 47,3% Scott (R) 46,7% Others 6% – Crist (D) + 0,6%
KANSAS – Brownback (R) 47,9% Davis (D) 47,9% Others 4,2% – Draw
HAWAII – Aiona (R) 39,4% Ige (D) 39,2% Others 21,3% – Aiona (R) + 0,2%
Aiona (R) 43% Abercrombie (D) 38,5% Others 18,5% – Aiona (R) + 4,5%
GEORGIA – Deal (R) 48,7% Carter (D) 47% Others 4,3% – Deal (R) + 1,7%
CONNECTICUT – Foley (R) 49,6% Malloy (D) 47,8% Others 2,6% – Foley (R) + 1,8%
MICHIGAN – Snyder (R) 50,4% Schauer (D) 48,6% Others 1% – Snyder (R) + 1,8%
ARIZONA – No Calculation

REP LEAN – 3 states
WISCONSIN – Walker (R) 51,1% Burke (D) 48% Others 0,9% – Walker (R) + 3,1%
ARKANSAS – Hutchinson (R) 50,5% Ross (D) 46,3% Others 3,2% – Hutchinson (R) + 4,2%
NEW MEXICO – Martinez (R) 49,7% King (D) 45,1% Others 5,2% – Martinez (R) + 4,6%

REP LIKELY – 4 states
NEBRASKA – Ricketts (R) 54,4% Hassebrook (D) 45,5% Others 0,1% – Ricketts (R) + 8,9%
ILLINOIS – Rauner (R) 53,6% Quinn (D) 44,2% Others 2,2% – Rauner (R) + 9,4%
OHIO – Kasich (R) 53,8% FitzGerald (D) 44,1% Others 2,1% – Kasich (R) + 9,7%
SOUTH CAROLINA – Haley (R) 53,6% Sheheen (D) 43,7% Others 2,8% – Haley (R) + 9,9%

REP SOLID – 10 states
IOWA – Branstad (R) 55,4% Hatch (D) 44% Others 0,6% – Branstad (R) + 11,4%
OKLAHOMA - Fallin (R) 54% Dorman (D) 40,4% Others 5,6% – Fallin (R) + 13,6%
TEXAS – Abbott (R) 58,1% Davis (D) 39,4% Others 2,4% – Abbott (R) + 18,7%
ALASKA – Parnell (R) 54,9% Mallot (D) 31,8% Others 13,2% – Parnell (R) + 23,1%
IDAHO – Otter (R) 59,4% Balukoff (D) 36,2% Others 4,3% – Otter (R) + 24,2%
TENNESSEE - Haslam (R) 60,5% McKamey (D) 35,1% Others 4,4% – Haslam (R) + 25,4%
NEVADA - Sandoval (R) 62,4% Goodman (D) 36,5% Others 1,1% – Sandoval (R) + 25,9%
WYOMING – Mead (R) 56,4% Gosar (D) 26,6% Others 17% – Mead (R) + 29,8%
ALABAMA – Bentley (R) 64% Griffith 33,7% Others 2,2% – Bentley (R) + 30,3%
SOUTH DAKOTA – Daugaard (R) 66,2% Wismer (D) 31,3% Others 2,5% – Daugaard (R) + 34,9%

REPUBLICANS 24 states
DEMOCRATS 19 states
TOSS-UP 7 states

Without TOSS-UP states:

REPUBLICANS 30 states
DEMOCRATS 20 states

[Free Bird]

Another one. Why the big Michaud lead?

[Senator Cris]

Another one. Why the big Michaud lead?

My calculations are polls averages. Not simple polls averages, but averages. The big lead is a consequence of the YouGov poll.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another one. Why the big Michaud lead?

My calculations are polls averages. Not simple polls averages, but averages. The big lead is a consequence of the YouGov poll.

You shouldn't include the you gov polling at all, it's got Brownback ahead by 12, deal ahead by 9, and acts like Franken is safer than warner, durbin, or t. udall, along with a collection of other mistakes.

[Free Bird]

Another one. Why the big Michaud lead?

My calculations are polls averages. Not simple polls averages, but averages. The big lead is a consequence of the YouGov poll.

You shouldn't include the you gov polling at all, it's got Brownback ahead by 12, deal ahead by 9, and acts like Franken is safer than warner, durbin, or t. udall, along with a collection of other mistakes.

And didn't it refuse to even include Cutler?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think MI, IL, PA, RI and ME are gonna trend Dem

While NM, tied in Rassy and FL and AR are too close to call.

Martinez or Scott may very well lose

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another one. Why the big Michaud lead?

My calculations are polls averages. Not simple polls averages, but averages. The big lead is a consequence of the YouGov poll.

You shouldn't include the you gov polling at all, it's got Brownback ahead by 12, deal ahead by 9, and acts like Franken is safer than warner, durbin, or t. udall, along with a collection of other mistakes.

And didn't it refuse to even include Cutler?

Yep. There was a field for other, but even that had a strangely low 5% support when cutler has at least triple that.

[Free Bird]

I think MI, IL, PA, RI and ME are gonna trend Dem

While NM, tied in Rassy and FL and AR are too close to call.

Martinez or Scott may very well lose

You're suddenly gonna trust Rassy because it has a result you like? Gimme a break.
And IL is gonna trend Dem? Politely hang up your sanity badge.
AT LEAST a case could be made for your other claims.

[ElectionsGuy]

Thanks Cris! It looks accurate too.

[Vega]

I don't think Hawaii is a toss-up. It's Likely Dem.

But other than that, I couldn't agree with your list more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP had a primary and did a good job beating up Quinn.


I live in the state where the ads are getting off,

It is plausable, that Quinn can win, not impossible.

[Senator Cris]

Update with my new post.

SOLID: Lead >10%
LIKELY: Lead between 6%-10%
LEAN: Lead between 3%-6%
TOSS-UP: Lead %

GOVERNORS - Updated today

DEM SOLID – 9 states
PENNSYLVANIA – Wolf (D) 60,1% Corbett (R) 38,4% Others 1,4% – Wolf (D) + 21,7% (- 1,9% since last update)
MARYLAND – Brown (D) 54,5% Hogan (R) 41% Others 4,5% – Brown (D) + 13,5% (- 1,2%)
OREGON – Dayton (D) 54,6% Johnson (R) 42,5% Others 2,8% – Dayton (D) + 12,1% (///)
OREGON – Kitzhaber (D) 53,9% Richardson (R) 41,8% Others 4,2% – Kitzhaber (D) + 12,1% (+ 0,4%)

DEM LIKELY – 1 state

DEM LEAN – 2 states
MAINE – Michaud (D) 45,6% LePage (R) 40,8% Others 13,6% – Michaud (D) + 4,8% (- 1,1%)

TOSS-UP – 5 states
KANSAS – Davis (D) 49,2% Brownback (R) 46,9% Others 4% – Davis (D) + 2,3% (+ 2,3%)
FLORIDA – Crist (D) 47,1% Scott (R) 46,7% Others 6,2% – Crist (D) + 0,4% (- 0,2%)
GEORGIA – Deal (R) 48,7% Carter (D) 47%  Others 4,2% – Deal (R) + 1,7% (=)
WISCONSIN [REP LEAN to TOSS-UP] – Walker (R) 50,7% Burke (D) 48,7% Others 0,7% – Walker (R) + 2% (- 1,1%)

REP LEAN – 5 states
CONNECTICUT [TOSS-UP to REP LEAN] – Foley (R) 50,7% Malloy (D) 47,2% Others 2% – Foley (R) + 3,5% (+ 1,7%)
HAWAII [TOSS-UP to REP LEAN] – Aiona (R) 43% Ige (D) 38,4% Others 18,6% – Aiona (R) + 4,6% (+ 4,4%) (Yes.. it is super weird, but these are the polls)
ARKANSAS – Hutchinson (R) 50,3% Ross (D) 45,9% Others 3,9% – Hutchinson (R) + 4,4% (+ 0,2%)
MICHIGAN [TOSS-UP to REP LEAN] – Snyder (R) 52,3% Schauer (D) 46,9% Others 0,8% – Snyder (R) + 5,4% (+ 3,6%)

REP LIKELY – 4 states
ILLINOIS – Rauner (R) 54% Quinn (D) 44,2% Others 1,8% – Rauner (R) + 9,8% (+ 0,4%) (Yes... it is super weird, but these are the polls)
OKLAHOMA [REP SOLID to REP LIKELY] - Fallin (R) 51,3% Dorman (D) 42,5% Others 6,5% – Fallin (R) + 9,1% (- 4,5%)

REP SOLID – 10 states
OHIO [REP LIKELY to REP SOLID] – Kasich (R) 54% FitzGerald (D) 43,6% Others 2,4% – Kasich (R) + 10,4% (+ 0,7%)
TEXAS – Abbott (R) 58,6% Davis (D) 40,7% Others 2,7% – Abbott (R) + 15,9% (- 2,8%)
ALASKA – Parnell (R) 50,6% Mallot (D) 29,6% Others 19,8% – Parnell (R) + 21% (- 2,1%)

REPUBLICANS 26 states (+ 2)
DEMOCRATS 19 states (=)
TOSS-UP 5 states (- 2)

Without TOSS-UP states:

REPUBLICANS 29 states (- 1)
DEMOCRATS 21 states (+ 1)

[The Other Castro]

How does Abercrombie losing making Hawaii more likely to go Republican?

[Senator Cris]

How does Abercrombie losing making Hawaii more likely to go Republican?

The fact is that these weird numbers are consequence of a Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll, that show Ige losing by 7 and Abercrombie losing by 15, released before the primary.

[Vega]

How does Abercrombie losing making Hawaii more likely to go Republican?

The fact is that these weird numbers are consequence of a Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll, that show Ige losing by 7 and Abercrombie losing by 15, released before the primary.

It's a crap poll done before we knew who the Dem Nominee would be.

For some reason, though, they still haven't polled the election since then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as CT, HI, and IL, I do see Dems winning at end.

I think this is the worse the Dems will do and we can do better than this. 23 or 24 seats tops.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

You'll want to re-figure Tennessee, McKamey lost the Dem primary to Charlie Brown.

[Vosem]

As far as CT, HI, and IL, I do see Dems winning at end.

I think this is the worse the Dems will do and we can do better than this. 23 or 24 seats tops.

I see Ige winning in the end, Malloy can still win if he runs a better campaign than Foley, but how do you possibly project Quinn beating Rauner without some sort of radical scandal/game-changer?

[rbt48]

Nebraska will be closer than anyone seems to think.  A conservative Democrat in this state, like Hassebrock, has the very best chance for winning here.  Warren Buffet must think so.  He contributed $100,000 to the Hassebrock campaign.

[NHLiberal]

Nebraska will be closer than anyone seems to think.  A conservative Democrat in this state, like Hassebrock, has the very best chance for winning here.  Warren Buffet must think so.  He contributed $100,000 to the Hassebrock campaign.

Yeah I'm also pretty convinced that Ricketts was a horrible choice for the nomination. He hasn't really done anything besides losing by the largest margin of any Republican Senate nominee in Nebraska in the last few decades.