New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[DL]

What about Hampton where the PC incumbent quit the party and is running for re-election as a New Democrat?

[Hatman 🍁]

What about Hampton where the PC incumbent quit the party and is running for re-election as a New Democrat?

Ahh yes, that will have to be dealt with as well.

[RogueBeaver]

PC platform unveiled.

[Zanas]

Here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-projection.html

If anyone has any ideas for what I should do about Carleton-Victoria, please let me know.

In your model the NDP seems somewhat competitive there being within 15 pts of the Tories. Are voting transfers from the absent Liberals towards the NDP rather the PC a thing in New Brunswick/Canada ?

[MaxQue]

Here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-projection.html

If anyone has any ideas for what I should do about Carleton-Victoria, please let me know.

In your model the NDP seems somewhat competitive there being within 15 pts of the Tories. Are voting transfers from the absent Liberals towards the NDP rather the PC a thing in New Brunswick/Canada ?

There is no surprising transfers in the Maritimes. NDP is center-center-left, Liberals are center-center-center and PC is center-center-right. They are very similar.

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed, there are 2 former Liberal MLAs running for the NDP and 1 former Tory. (this is quite phenomenal really, considering historical party switches in Canada).

[Hatman 🍁]

Also keep in mind that a lot of political allegiances in Atlantic Canada are tribal. The NDP were able to get through that in Nova Scotia, but I think you will find a lot of people there who say they are Liberal or PC, but voted NDP because they liked (emphasis on the past tense) Darrel Dexter, or some other popular New Democrat, like Peter Stoffer or Alexa McDonough. (perhaps DC can confirm this).

[Hash]

Amusingly, however, the Waffle very briefly seized control of the NB NDP in 1971.

[DC Al Fine]

Also keep in mind that a lot of political allegiances in Atlantic Canada are tribal. The NDP were able to get through that in Nova Scotia, but I think you will find a lot of people there who say they are Liberal or PC, but voted NDP because they liked (emphasis on the past tense) Darrel Dexter, or some other popular New Democrat, like Peter Stoffer or Alexa McDonough. (perhaps DC can confirm this).

Yes that's correct. The NDP doesn't have much of an actual following outside of industrial Cape Breton and the poorer parts of Halifax. The question for the NB NDP is whether they can develop popular MLAs of their own.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

[DL]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

[RogueBeaver]

Grit platform unveiled.

Shale polarizing: 49% support, 44% oppose.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

Those two ridings I mentioned are the most "natural" NDP ridings, though.

[lilTommy]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

Those two ridings I mentioned are the most "natural" NDP ridings, though.

Those are the most likely to be heavily targeted for the NDP; any word if the NDP is targeting say RESTIGOUCHE-CHALEUR as the candidate is Yvon Godin, brother of popular MP Yvon Godin? since we've already touched on the personality based voting that can happen with the NDP.

NBNDP Platform
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014/dominic-cardy-vows-leaner-less-partisan-government-with-ndp-1.2756088

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/n-b-ndp-promise-to-balance-the-books-pay-down-debt-1.1990856 - this one is insulting, they have the NBLiberal leaders picture over the NDPs platform article...

[the506]

Debate night!

6:30 AT on CBC, will be streamed here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the livestream.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/LiveStreams/News/ID/2396780283/

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

[Hatman 🍁]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

[RogueBeaver]

Radio-Canada says Gallant got hammered on both sides.

[the506]

He did. Gallant basically recited slogans all night, Alward bumbled, Cardy was well-prepared and got some good digs on both.

Coon was your typical Green and Austin was basically comic relief.

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

[lilTommy]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

Here's hoping that bumps up the NDPs numbers!; a good leaders performance can help get candidates elected oh his coattails especially if you leader looks the most competent. Those 6 NDP seats sound to me a lot closer to reality.
will there be a post-debate poll?

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

Here's hoping that bumps up the NDPs numbers!; a good leaders performance can help get candidates elected oh his coattails especially if you leader looks the most competent. Those 6 NDP seats sound to me a lot closer to reality.
will there be a post-debate poll?

There should be, but alas no. CRA polled daily last time around, but now they're almost non-existent.

[DC Al Fine]

Gallant’s tax rate on rich would be Canada's highest

Would result in about a 55% top combined marginal rate. Kind of interesting how the NDP have tacked right while the Liberals have swung left this election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing new these days.