New Brunswick: September 22, 2014
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  New Brunswick: September 22, 2014
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Author Topic: New Brunswick: September 22, 2014  (Read 12850 times)
the506
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« on: August 03, 2014, 04:00:40 PM »

Just 7 weeks til my home province goes to the polls.

For the uninitiated:
* The PC government of David Alward is in hot water over not bringing a skyrocketing deficit under control, and going gung-ho on shale gas development over objections from local residents. Abortion has also become a big issue, as the only clinic in the province recently closed and the PCs not being keen on lifting the rule on requiring approval from 2 doctors to get one done in a hospital. The PCs are looking to avoid being only the second government in provincial history to not be re-elected to a second term (the first? The 2010 Liberals).
* The Liberals under Brian Gallant are leading big in the polls despite not really having any positions of substance on anything. (Their response, no matter what: "We'll study the issue".)
* The NDP of Dominic Cardy has emerged as the "none of the above" party and has had its strongest showing in the polls in party history in recent years. (Still, at 16%, it's nothing to write home about.) One sitting PC MLA, Bev Harrison in Hampton, will be crossing the floor to run for them in the next election; as well as former Liberal MLAs Kelly Lamrock in Fredericton South and Abel LeBlanc in Saint John-Lancaster. Much like in other provinces, the move to the centre has been criticized by the old ideological guard. Some have decamped to the Greens.
* The Greens are led by David Coon, and they are, well, the Greens.
* The People's Alliance came on to the scene before the 2010 election with a bang, but could only nominate about a dozen candidates, of which only one (leader Kris Austin) fared even remotely decently.

Unless we see a 1999-level mid-campaign shift, Brian Gallant becoming the next premier looks like a fait accompli, the only question is if it's a majority or minority. The real wildcard will be the NDP. They're focusing their energy on winnable ridings (mostly in Fredericton and Saint John), and whether it works remains to be seen.

The latest poll (from Corporate Research Associates of Halifax, the only group who polls anywhere in Atlantic Canada with any degree of regularity):

Liberal = 53%
PC = 28%
NDP = 16%
Green = 4%
PA = <1%

There's a new riding map in effect for this election, and the number of seats has dropped from 55 to 49. They went with a very strict 5% deviation limit, which led to some ridings making about as much sense as gerrymandered congressional districts.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2014, 04:10:55 PM »

Do you see the NDP being able to capitalize on abortion, perhaps to Grit detriment?
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the506
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2014, 04:25:59 PM »

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2014, 06:55:21 PM »

Do you see the NDP being able to capitalize on abortion, perhaps to Grit detriment?

I see it helping the NDP pick up a couple urban seats.

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.

It seems it will help the Tories in their Anglo, Baptist heartland. How religious is the francophone community? Could you see a strong pro-life or pro-choice stand on the Liberals part make a big difference with the Acadians?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2014, 06:56:47 PM »

FTR I'm enthusiastically supporting the Tories in this one rather than my quite tepid NS PC support Tongue
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MaxQue
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2014, 10:36:08 PM »

Do you see the NDP being able to capitalize on abortion, perhaps to Grit detriment?

I see it helping the NDP pick up a couple urban seats.

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.

It seems it will help the Tories in their Anglo, Baptist heartland. How religious is the francophone community? Could you see a strong pro-life or pro-choice stand on the Liberals part make a big difference with the Acadians?

The issue is than Tories don't need help in the Baptist heartland, it's already their strongest area. If they were losing there, abortion can probably save them those seats, but they clearly lost the election.

As for religion and Acadians, I would suppose than no, since they probably have the same brand of nominal catholicism than Quebec has. If we check the abortion question on the Vote Compass, they are right on average in the east (same colour than Central Nova) and a bit pro-life in the west (same colour than West Nova). So, a bit more conservative on abortion, but will that issue be actually relevent with more than some fringe (on both sides)?
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Smid
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2014, 05:07:21 PM »

There is a blank boundary map in the gallery, with the new boundaries:

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the506
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2014, 11:29:58 AM »

The first ad is out. Tories want to make this election about shale gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wIw1-iUwQY
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EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2014, 02:06:27 PM »

When do the writs drop?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2014, 04:32:37 PM »

The first ad is out. Tories want to make this election about shale gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wIw1-iUwQY

Is shale gas really popular?
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the506
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2014, 11:41:28 PM »

I'd say it's about 50-50. The anti's are a *lot* more vocal than the pro's though....

Making the election about shale gas might be all the Tories have. 3 parties splitting the "anti" vote (Liberals technically haven't come out against it but they seem to defer to whoever yells the loudest) would sure work to their advantage...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2014, 06:27:13 AM »

I'd say it's about 50-50. The anti's are a *lot* more vocal than the pro's though....

Making the election about shale gas might be all the Tories have. 3 parties splitting the "anti" vote (Liberals technically haven't come out against it but they seem to defer to whoever yells the loudest) would sure work to their advantage...

The NDP has (OK, now has) taken the anti-shale position calling for a legislated ban on fracking. This has basically put the Liberals out of contention on this issue since the Tories are pro and the NDP are against and the Liberals are... well... we don't know right? They risk being marginalized on this issue unless they take a much more decided stance.
http://nbmediacoop.org/2014/07/24/ndp-goes-all-out-for-anti-shale-gas-votes-with-call-for-a-legislated-ban-on-fracking/
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mountvernon
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2014, 03:15:36 PM »

I have New Brunswick Baptist roots -- what is the current Baptist heartland of the province?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2014, 03:21:11 PM »

Dissolution Thursday - CBC.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2014, 09:15:12 PM »

I have New Brunswick Baptist roots -- what is the current Baptist heartland of the province?

Anywhere rural and Anglo... More specifically the Saint John River Valley is probably the most Baptist part of the province.
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mountvernon
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2014, 07:29:10 AM »

An ancestor was a Baptist minister in Queens County in the St. Johns Valley.  I've been to the church, and seen his grave and that of his wife.  It's still an exceedingly rural area, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are plenty of Baptists around there.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2014, 04:10:22 PM »

Here's my transposition numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/08/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html

A lot different than what Blunt Objects did.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2014, 04:42:59 PM »

Tories pull out of CBC debate due to inclusion of fringe parties.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2014, 05:31:37 PM »

I guess you gotta include them all, or just the Liberals and PCs. The NDP doesn't hold a seat... not technically anyways (they have an independent MLA running for them)
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the506
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2014, 10:55:22 PM »

To be fair....last time around, CTV (which thinks NB is some sort of distant suburb of Halifax) included the NDP but not the Greens. CBC had all 5.

The Greens are one thing, but I don't see why the PA has any real case to be included. They're not even running close to a full slate, so they're just wasting most voters' time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2014, 11:39:16 PM »

Radio-Canada is only having Liberal, PC, NDP. They invited the Green leader last time (and PA leader, who declined), but not this time. They base Green and PA exclusions on their low level in French.
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the506
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2014, 12:29:07 AM »
« Edited: August 24, 2014, 12:31:33 AM by the506 »

The Liberal strategy involves lots and lots of Justin Trudeau. He appeared at their campaign launch today and makes cameos in their commercials. It may be all they need. It may be all they have.

Meanwhile, the Tories are back in the debate: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/tories-reverse-decision-agree-to-cbc-election-debate-1.2744300
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2014, 09:38:06 AM »

Globe on the Grit kickoff.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2014, 11:59:58 AM »

Looking forward to seeing some campaign kick off polls. Last poll gave the Liberals a 25 point lead, but that was back in May.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2014, 03:01:45 PM »

The Liberal strategy involves lots and lots of Justin Trudeau. He appeared at their campaign launch today and makes cameos in their commercials. It may be all they need. It may be all they have.

Meanwhile, the Tories are back in the debate: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/tories-reverse-decision-agree-to-cbc-election-debate-1.2744300


One of the few provincial Liberal parties that are actually affiliated with the federal party.

Looking forward to seeing some campaign kick off polls. Last poll gave the Liberals a 25 point lead, but that was back in May.

We may or may not be doing a poll.
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