New Brunswick: September 22, 2014
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  New Brunswick: September 22, 2014
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Author Topic: New Brunswick: September 22, 2014  (Read 12851 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #25 on: August 25, 2014, 07:31:15 PM »

NDP attacking the "tax and spend Liberals" http://www.nbndp.ca/more-reckless-ideas-from-the-tax-and-spend-liberals/

Love it!
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the506
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« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2014, 12:06:19 PM »

https://twitter.com/SteveSlep/status/504601083902062592

Still no polls yet, but from media coverage it seems the NDP has some momentum. I see multiple seats for them - which has never happened in NB before.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2014, 01:09:28 PM »

https://twitter.com/SteveSlep/status/504601083902062592

Still no polls yet, but from media coverage it seems the NDP has some momentum. I see multiple seats for them - which has never happened in NB before.

Cardy has really built the NDP up, for better or worse among NDP'ers he should be credited for putting the NDP in a credible position. The party never had much play in NB politics, they only ever had 2 seats at most at one time, it was a one-woman party under Weir and when she left the party was basically hurting to break 10%. His ability to grow the NDPs support was on full display in the Rothsay by-election when it grew by almost 20% and the party consistently polls well (before the May poll the NDP was very consistently above 20%)
Cardy has embraced a moderate Blairite Social Democratic approach, and has been focusing on expanding the party, platform and building an electable team, with much success. PC-gone-Indie Bev Harrison is now running for the NDP. Former Liberal MLAs Abel Leblanc and Kelly Lamrock are now running for the NDP (Lamrock was a huge steal as a former cabinet minister). But, as always, some in the NDP rank have been critical of this move to the centre, former leader Allison Brewer (who, was in short, a disaster) have endorsed the Greens. I don't think this will hurt the party to much. I do see the party winning a few seats as well, 4 perhaps.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2014, 02:46:53 PM »

Brewer was a disaster. Good riddance.

I'll believe a few seats when I see it, but I reckon Cardy will win his seat. We'll see what the polls say, but I think the Liberals will win in a landslide. Not quite a 1987 redux though.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2014, 09:56:54 PM »

You know you're fycked when you release what looks like an internal (H/T David Akin) showing you down 8.
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the506
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« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2014, 10:07:22 PM »

And those #s only add up to 73 which means you're probably looking at a good 20% undecided.

It might not be completely over just yet.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2014, 10:14:14 PM »

One thing I like about Atlantic elections: you don't hesitate to kick incumbent ass.
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DL
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« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2014, 01:01:14 AM »

And those #s only add up to 73 which means you're probably looking at a good 20% undecided.

It might not be completely over just yet.

Yeah by my reckoning among decided voters we'd be looking at Libs 44%, PCs 33%, NDP 17% and that would leave 6% for Greens/Other. If things narrow a bit more its not inconceivable that we could see a minority gov't...at 17% and with their vote heavily concentrated in half a dozen seats the NDP could win a few seats (last time they had just 10%)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #33 on: August 29, 2014, 04:20:17 PM »

CRA will release after Labour Day.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #34 on: August 29, 2014, 04:26:32 PM »

One thing I like about Atlantic elections: you don't hesitate to kick incumbent ass.

Indeed *Shudders @ NS '09*
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lilTommy
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« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2014, 05:14:02 PM »

One thing I like about Atlantic elections: you don't hesitate to kick incumbent ass.

Indeed *Shudders @ NS '09*

... *shudders @ NS 13*
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #36 on: August 30, 2014, 08:36:50 AM »

Forum: 46/31/15/7. 65% want a change in government.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #37 on: August 30, 2014, 08:44:52 AM »

Forum says that would mean 44 Grits and 5 Tories in the new Leg.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2014, 01:07:14 PM »

No regional or language breakdowns? What a crap pollster.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2014, 11:36:00 AM »

CRA: 48/29/17.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2014, 05:52:45 PM »

No regional or language breakdowns? What a crap pollster.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #41 on: September 02, 2014, 06:03:11 PM »

Whatever CRA does, it works. Grenier is projecting 37/11/1, FWIW.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #42 on: September 02, 2014, 07:16:39 PM »


There's about 4-5 seats where the NDP are within 10% according to Grenier. If the Liberals falter, the NDP should get a beachhead out of this election.
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DL
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« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2014, 08:54:08 AM »

Keep in mind that the NB NDP campaign is almost entirely focused on about 8 seats in Saint John and Fredericton - everywhere else they just have "names on the ballot" - so 17% concentrated in those two cities could yield several seats.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2014, 11:04:07 AM »

Keep in mind that the NB NDP campaign is almost entirely focused on about 8 seats in Saint John and Fredericton - everywhere else they just have "names on the ballot" - so 17% concentrated in those two cities could yield several seats.

Which is why these polls are garbage without regional numbers.
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the506
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« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2014, 12:49:37 PM »

Liberals suspend Carleton-Victoria candidate on fraud charges:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014/brian-gallant-suspends-liberal-candidate-after-fraud-charges-arise-1.2754210
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MaxQue
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« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2014, 03:06:30 PM »


Liberals would have needed a very good election to win there.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2014, 03:12:51 PM »

308 had them picking it up easily. Since the nomination deadline has passed, Grits will forfeit.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2014, 03:19:18 PM »

308 had them picking it up easily. Since the nomination deadline has passed, Grits will forfeit.

Well, it's looking to be a very good election for Liberals.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #49 on: September 04, 2014, 02:13:59 PM »

Here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-projection.html

If anyone has any ideas for what I should do about Carleton-Victoria, please let me know.
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