New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[MaxQue]

Do you see the NDP being able to capitalize on abortion, perhaps to Grit detriment?

I see it helping the NDP pick up a couple urban seats.

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.

It seems it will help the Tories in their Anglo, Baptist heartland. How religious is the francophone community? Could you see a strong pro-life or pro-choice stand on the Liberals part make a big difference with the Acadians?

The issue is than Tories don't need help in the Baptist heartland, it's already their strongest area. If they were losing there, abortion can probably save them those seats, but they clearly lost the election.

As for religion and Acadians, I would suppose than no, since they probably have the same brand of nominal catholicism than Quebec has. If we check the abortion question on the Vote Compass, they are right on average in the east (same colour than Central Nova) and a bit pro-life in the west (same colour than West Nova). So, a bit more conservative on abortion, but will that issue be actually relevent with more than some fringe (on both sides)?

[MaxQue]

The first ad is out. Tories want to make this election about shale gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wIw1-iUwQY

Is shale gas really popular?

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada is only having Liberal, PC, NDP. They invited the Green leader last time (and PA leader, who declined), but not this time. They base Green and PA exclusions on their low level in French.

[MaxQue]

Liberals suspend Carleton-Victoria candidate on fraud charges:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014/brian-gallant-suspends-liberal-candidate-after-fraud-charges-arise-1.2754210

Liberals would have needed a very good election to win there.

[MaxQue]

308 had them picking it up easily. Since the nomination deadline has passed, Grits will forfeit.

Well, it's looking to be a very good election for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-projection.html

If anyone has any ideas for what I should do about Carleton-Victoria, please let me know.

In your model the NDP seems somewhat competitive there being within 15 pts of the Tories. Are voting transfers from the absent Liberals towards the NDP rather the PC a thing in New Brunswick/Canada ?

There is no surprising transfers in the Maritimes. NDP is center-center-left, Liberals are center-center-center and PC is center-center-right. They are very similar.

[MaxQue]

Tabulation counting seems to be a disaster.

10 PC, 8 Lib, 4 Green, 1 NDP, 1 People Alliance.

Doesn't make sense.

[MaxQue]

Some of these advance polls had one vote cast, so...

That is fishy, too. I can't believe an advance poll with only one voter.

[MaxQue]

24 Lib, 24 PC, 1 People Alliance, right now.

[MaxQue]

Shock. The lead for People Alliance leader seems real. 413 PANB, 355 PC, 276 Lib!

[MaxQue]

Shock. The lead for People Alliance leader seems real. 413 PANB, 355 PC, 276 Lib!

1108 PA, 751 PC, 633 Lib. It's happening?

What is People Alliance, exactly?

[MaxQue]

Nutbars. Angry, angry nutbars.

We can breath, PC leads by 60 votes, now.

[MaxQue]

Nutbars. Angry, angry nutbars.

And, again, Greens have no purpose but splitting the alternative vote. Without the Greens, the NDP leader would be leading.

[MaxQue]

What's going on with Fredericton South??? There's only one machine in an hour after polls closed.

Machines were broken.

The Green leader leads 961-819 over PC. Wierd night for party leaders.

[MaxQue]

PC leads over the PA leader is only 12 votes now.

[MaxQue]

PC leads over the PA leader is only 12 votes now.

Back to 186.

[MaxQue]

For how quick this process was supposed to be, this is the longest in a long time without calling the winner.

The usual process would have taken even longer, through!

[MaxQue]

The creation of Fredericton South as a riding must have been a wet dream for the Greens. A perfect riding full of latte liberals, the only area in the entire province like that.

Well, they are good at targeting. Perhaps NBNDP should learn from that.

[MaxQue]

Cardy should have run in Fredericton South. Dumbest decision he made. What's so progressive about his riding?

It's urban, suburban and rural, so it's representative of the province! It's the reason he gave. Dumb targeting, as usual.

[MaxQue]

Green leader is now leading by exactly 300 votes.

PA leader is back by 183 votes, but only special votes are left. Probably done.

NDP leader is back by 477 votes (1 day box + special left).

[MaxQue]

Bad new for Green leader. All day vote is counted, but none of the early.

[MaxQue]

452 behind for NDP leader, with only specials left. Done for him.

Green leader leads by 268 votes, with only specials left. Probably winning.

[MaxQue]

Bad news for the NDP.

Well, they did a terrible centrist and vague campaign, targeting nowhere. They must learn lessons the hard way.

[MaxQue]

Green leader lead increases to 437.

[MaxQue]

What's going on? Looks like votes counts have stopped coming in.  I guess the rest are the ones with problems with the new counting machine system.

Pretty much anything left (the last box in every riding) is the provicially counted special votes. There is 50 boxes of it, nine are left.

Cardy, the NDP leader, resigns.