New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[the506]

Just 7 weeks til my home province goes to the polls.

For the uninitiated:
* The PC government of David Alward is in hot water over not bringing a skyrocketing deficit under control, and going gung-ho on shale gas development over objections from local residents. Abortion has also become a big issue, as the only clinic in the province recently closed and the PCs not being keen on lifting the rule on requiring approval from 2 doctors to get one done in a hospital. The PCs are looking to avoid being only the second government in provincial history to not be re-elected to a second term (the first? The 2010 Liberals).
* The Liberals under Brian Gallant are leading big in the polls despite not really having any positions of substance on anything. (Their response, no matter what: "We'll study the issue".)
* The NDP of Dominic Cardy has emerged as the "none of the above" party and has had its strongest showing in the polls in party history in recent years. (Still, at 16%, it's nothing to write home about.) One sitting PC MLA, Bev Harrison in Hampton, will be crossing the floor to run for them in the next election; as well as former Liberal MLAs Kelly Lamrock in Fredericton South and Abel LeBlanc in Saint John-Lancaster. Much like in other provinces, the move to the centre has been criticized by the old ideological guard. Some have decamped to the Greens.
* The Greens are led by David Coon, and they are, well, the Greens.
* The People's Alliance came on to the scene before the 2010 election with a bang, but could only nominate about a dozen candidates, of which only one (leader Kris Austin) fared even remotely decently.

Unless we see a 1999-level mid-campaign shift, Brian Gallant becoming the next premier looks like a fait accompli, the only question is if it's a majority or minority. The real wildcard will be the NDP. They're focusing their energy on winnable ridings (mostly in Fredericton and Saint John), and whether it works remains to be seen.

The latest poll (from Corporate Research Associates of Halifax, the only group who polls anywhere in Atlantic Canada with any degree of regularity):

Liberal = 53%
PC = 28%
NDP = 16%
Green = 4%
PA = <1%

There's a new riding map in effect for this election, and the number of seats has dropped from 55 to 49. They went with a very strict 5% deviation limit, which led to some ridings making about as much sense as gerrymandered congressional districts.

[the506]

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.

[the506]

The first ad is out. Tories want to make this election about shale gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wIw1-iUwQY

[the506]

I'd say it's about 50-50. The anti's are a *lot* more vocal than the pro's though....

Making the election about shale gas might be all the Tories have. 3 parties splitting the "anti" vote (Liberals technically haven't come out against it but they seem to defer to whoever yells the loudest) would sure work to their advantage...

[the506]

To be fair....last time around, CTV (which thinks NB is some sort of distant suburb of Halifax) included the NDP but not the Greens. CBC had all 5.

The Greens are one thing, but I don't see why the PA has any real case to be included. They're not even running close to a full slate, so they're just wasting most voters' time.

[the506]

The Liberal strategy involves lots and lots of Justin Trudeau. He appeared at their campaign launch today and makes cameos in their commercials. It may be all they need. It may be all they have.

Meanwhile, the Tories are back in the debate: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/tories-reverse-decision-agree-to-cbc-election-debate-1.2744300

[the506]

https://twitter.com/SteveSlep/status/504601083902062592

Still no polls yet, but from media coverage it seems the NDP has some momentum. I see multiple seats for them - which has never happened in NB before.

[the506]

And those #s only add up to 73 which means you're probably looking at a good 20% undecided.

It might not be completely over just yet.

[the506]

Liberals suspend Carleton-Victoria candidate on fraud charges:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014/brian-gallant-suspends-liberal-candidate-after-fraud-charges-arise-1.2754210

[the506]

Debate night!

6:30 AT on CBC, will be streamed here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014

[the506]

He did. Gallant basically recited slogans all night, Alward bumbled, Cardy was well-prepared and got some good digs on both.

Coon was your typical Green and Austin was basically comic relief.

[the506]

Brian Gallant may have had the worst interview in Canadian politics since Stephane Dion, and now the national media is seizing on it:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/09/17/kelly-mcparland-stumble-in-new-brunswick-election-bodes-ill-for-untried-liberal-leaders/

[the506]

In fairness, the national media outlets have to be dragged kicking and screaming into realizing New Brunswick exists.

[the506]

Forum: 40-40-13.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/147/all-tied-up-in-new-brunswick/

Get your popcorn.

[the506]

So any predictions?

I'm saying 26 Liberal, 21 PC, 2 NDP.

[the506]

They've been using it for municipal elections here since 2008. No complaints yet.