New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[DL]

And those #s only add up to 73 which means you're probably looking at a good 20% undecided.

It might not be completely over just yet.

Yeah by my reckoning among decided voters we'd be looking at Libs 44%, PCs 33%, NDP 17% and that would leave 6% for Greens/Other. If things narrow a bit more its not inconceivable that we could see a minority gov't...at 17% and with their vote heavily concentrated in half a dozen seats the NDP could win a few seats (last time they had just 10%)

[DL]

Keep in mind that the NB NDP campaign is almost entirely focused on about 8 seats in Saint John and Fredericton - everywhere else they just have "names on the ballot" - so 17% concentrated in those two cities could yield several seats.

[DL]

What about Hampton where the PC incumbent quit the party and is running for re-election as a New Democrat?

[DL]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

[DL]

NDP are choking hard, yet I can't point to anything in particular causing it.

Downfall-gate?

Almost all the fieldwork was before that even happened.

[DL]

I dont understand how 308 can show the Liberals winning the PV but losing the seat count. Not with the concentration of Tory support in the Saint John area. This could be a repeat of 2006.

If anything its the Liberals who may "waste" voted in the Acadian parts of the province and lose narrowly everywhere else