New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[lilTommy]

I'd say it's about 50-50. The anti's are a *lot* more vocal than the pro's though....

Making the election about shale gas might be all the Tories have. 3 parties splitting the "anti" vote (Liberals technically haven't come out against it but they seem to defer to whoever yells the loudest) would sure work to their advantage...

The NDP has (OK, now has) taken the anti-shale position calling for a legislated ban on fracking. This has basically put the Liberals out of contention on this issue since the Tories are pro and the NDP are against and the Liberals are... well... we don't know right? They risk being marginalized on this issue unless they take a much more decided stance.
http://nbmediacoop.org/2014/07/24/ndp-goes-all-out-for-anti-shale-gas-votes-with-call-for-a-legislated-ban-on-fracking/

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/SteveSlep/status/504601083902062592

Still no polls yet, but from media coverage it seems the NDP has some momentum. I see multiple seats for them - which has never happened in NB before.

Cardy has really built the NDP up, for better or worse among NDP'ers he should be credited for putting the NDP in a credible position. The party never had much play in NB politics, they only ever had 2 seats at most at one time, it was a one-woman party under Weir and when she left the party was basically hurting to break 10%. His ability to grow the NDPs support was on full display in the Rothsay by-election when it grew by almost 20% and the party consistently polls well (before the May poll the NDP was very consistently above 20%)
Cardy has embraced a moderate Blairite Social Democratic approach, and has been focusing on expanding the party, platform and building an electable team, with much success. PC-gone-Indie Bev Harrison is now running for the NDP. Former Liberal MLAs Abel Leblanc and Kelly Lamrock are now running for the NDP (Lamrock was a huge steal as a former cabinet minister). But, as always, some in the NDP rank have been critical of this move to the centre, former leader Allison Brewer (who, was in short, a disaster) have endorsed the Greens. I don't think this will hurt the party to much. I do see the party winning a few seats as well, 4 perhaps.

[lilTommy]

One thing I like about Atlantic elections: you don't hesitate to kick incumbent ass.

Indeed *Shudders @ NS '09*

... *shudders @ NS 13*

[lilTommy]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

Those two ridings I mentioned are the most "natural" NDP ridings, though.

Those are the most likely to be heavily targeted for the NDP; any word if the NDP is targeting say RESTIGOUCHE-CHALEUR as the candidate is Yvon Godin, brother of popular MP Yvon Godin? since we've already touched on the personality based voting that can happen with the NDP.

NBNDP Platform
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-votes-2014/dominic-cardy-vows-leaner-less-partisan-government-with-ndp-1.2756088

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/n-b-ndp-promise-to-balance-the-books-pay-down-debt-1.1990856 - this one is insulting, they have the NBLiberal leaders picture over the NDPs platform article...

[lilTommy]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

Here's hoping that bumps up the NDPs numbers!; a good leaders performance can help get candidates elected oh his coattails especially if you leader looks the most competent. Those 6 NDP seats sound to me a lot closer to reality.
will there be a post-debate poll?