New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

When do the writs drop?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my transposition numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/08/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html

A lot different than what Blunt Objects did.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess you gotta include them all, or just the Liberals and PCs. The NDP doesn't hold a seat... not technically anyways (they have an independent MLA running for them)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberal strategy involves lots and lots of Justin Trudeau. He appeared at their campaign launch today and makes cameos in their commercials. It may be all they need. It may be all they have.

Meanwhile, the Tories are back in the debate: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/tories-reverse-decision-agree-to-cbc-election-debate-1.2744300

One of the few provincial Liberal parties that are actually affiliated with the federal party.

Looking forward to seeing some campaign kick off polls. Last poll gave the Liberals a 25 point lead, but that was back in May.

We may or may not be doing a poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP attacking the "tax and spend Liberals" http://www.nbndp.ca/more-reckless-ideas-from-the-tax-and-spend-liberals/

Love it!

[Hatman 🍁]

Brewer was a disaster. Good riddance.

I'll believe a few seats when I see it, but I reckon Cardy will win his seat. We'll see what the polls say, but I think the Liberals will win in a landslide. Not quite a 1987 redux though.

[Hatman 🍁]

No regional or language breakdowns? What a crap pollster.

[Hatman 🍁]

No regional or language breakdowns? What a crap pollster.

[Hatman 🍁]

Keep in mind that the NB NDP campaign is almost entirely focused on about 8 seats in Saint John and Fredericton - everywhere else they just have "names on the ballot" - so 17% concentrated in those two cities could yield several seats.

Which is why these polls are garbage without regional numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-projection.html

If anyone has any ideas for what I should do about Carleton-Victoria, please let me know.

[Hatman 🍁]

What about Hampton where the PC incumbent quit the party and is running for re-election as a New Democrat?

Ahh yes, that will have to be dealt with as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed, there are 2 former Liberal MLAs running for the NDP and 1 former Tory. (this is quite phenomenal really, considering historical party switches in Canada).

[Hatman 🍁]

Also keep in mind that a lot of political allegiances in Atlantic Canada are tribal. The NDP were able to get through that in Nova Scotia, but I think you will find a lot of people there who say they are Liberal or PC, but voted NDP because they liked (emphasis on the past tense) Darrel Dexter, or some other popular New Democrat, like Peter Stoffer or Alexa McDonough. (perhaps DC can confirm this).

[Hatman 🍁]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

[Hatman 🍁]

Two NDP targets outside their leader's riding:

- Fredericton South (probably the most socially liberal riding in the province)
- Saint John Harbour (probably the most economically left wing riding in the province)

I think they are also to at least some extent targeting Hampton (where the PC MLA is running for them), Saint John East which is very working class and also Saint John Lancaster where their candidate is the former Liberal MLA as well as Fredericton North.

Those two ridings I mentioned are the most "natural" NDP ridings, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing new these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm glad they finally have regional breaks, but I have no idea which region Northern NB fits in. I'm going to assume Moncton / East Coast contains all of Northern New Brunswick.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP are choking hard, yet I can't point to anything in particular causing it.

Downfall-gate?

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/09/2014-new-brunswick-election-final.html

I admit to not following the election very closely, so I'm not that confident with my numbers. However, I did spend a long time on the transposition numbers, so I know my starting numbers are pretty accurate

Polls close at 7 Eastern.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont understand how 308 can show the Liberals winning the PV but losing the seat count. Not with the concentration of Tory support in the Saint John area. This could be a repeat of 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont understand how 308 can show the Liberals winning the PV but losing the seat count. Not with the concentration of Tory support in the Saint John area. This could be a repeat of 2006.

If anything its the Liberals who may "waste" voted in the Acadian parts of the province and lose narrowly everywhere else

Maybe in some ridings, but the Tories still have a few seats with popular incumbents in Acadia. The Liberals only hold 1 seat in Southern New Brunswick.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh God, that's terrible. At least there's a paper trail.

[Hatman 🍁]

They've been using it for municipal elections here since 2008. No complaints yet.

We have them here too.

[Hatman 🍁]

So far it is opposite of 308.  CON ahead in seats (or at least competitive) but clearly behind in vote share.

308 is generally terrible.