New Brunswick: September 22, 2014

[DC Al Fine]

Do you see the NDP being able to capitalize on abortion, perhaps to Grit detriment?

I see it helping the NDP pick up a couple urban seats.

To a point. The NDP is definitely trying to capitalize on it, but I'm getting the sense it doesn't have much traction with older voters. In a province where so many people move away the minute they graduate high school, appealing to younger voters only gets you so far.

In fact the pro-life movement could be stronger in NB than anywhere else in the country, so it may even benefit the Tories.

It seems it will help the Tories in their Anglo, Baptist heartland. How religious is the francophone community? Could you see a strong pro-life or pro-choice stand on the Liberals part make a big difference with the Acadians?

[DC Al Fine]

FTR I'm enthusiastically supporting the Tories in this one rather than my quite tepid NS PC support

[DC Al Fine]

I have New Brunswick Baptist roots -- what is the current Baptist heartland of the province?

Anywhere rural and Anglo... More specifically the Saint John River Valley is probably the most Baptist part of the province.

[DC Al Fine]

Looking forward to seeing some campaign kick off polls. Last poll gave the Liberals a 25 point lead, but that was back in May.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing I like about Atlantic elections: you don't hesitate to kick incumbent ass.

Indeed *Shudders @ NS '09*

[DC Al Fine]

Whatever CRA does, it works. Grenier is projecting 37/11/1, FWIW.

There's about 4-5 seats where the NDP are within 10% according to Grenier. If the Liberals falter, the NDP should get a beachhead out of this election.

[DC Al Fine]

Also keep in mind that a lot of political allegiances in Atlantic Canada are tribal. The NDP were able to get through that in Nova Scotia, but I think you will find a lot of people there who say they are Liberal or PC, but voted NDP because they liked (emphasis on the past tense) Darrel Dexter, or some other popular New Democrat, like Peter Stoffer or Alexa McDonough. (perhaps DC can confirm this).

Yes that's correct. The NDP doesn't have much of an actual following outside of industrial Cape Breton and the poorer parts of Halifax. The question for the NB NDP is whether they can develop popular MLAs of their own.

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

[DC Al Fine]

They invited the Greens and People's Alliance? FFS

A little late to the party, eh? The Tories nearly boycotted the debate because of their inclusion. Not sure why People's Alliance were allowed, they're not even running in a majority of the seats! I guess they bitched loud enough... squeaky wheel gets the grease.

Didn't watch the debate (because who cares ), but apparently Cardy mopped the floor (now I wish I had seen it)

Yeah, can't say I've been following this one closely. I watched about 10 min of the debate tonight. Cardy had an excellent performance, although he was mostly attacking Gallant during what I saw.

Here's hoping that bumps up the NDPs numbers!; a good leaders performance can help get candidates elected oh his coattails especially if you leader looks the most competent. Those 6 NDP seats sound to me a lot closer to reality.
will there be a post-debate poll?

There should be, but alas no. CRA polled daily last time around, but now they're almost non-existent.

[DC Al Fine]

Gallant’s tax rate on rich would be Canada's highest

Would result in about a 55% top combined marginal rate. Kind of interesting how the NDP have tacked right while the Liberals have swung left this election.

[DC Al Fine]

Brian Gallant may have had the worst interview in Canadian politics since Stephane Dion, and now the national media is seizing on it:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/09/17/kelly-mcparland-stumble-in-new-brunswick-election-bodes-ill-for-untried-liberal-leaders/

Doubt this will change the end result but it should save the Tories a few seats.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP are choking hard, yet I can't point to anything in particular causing it.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP are choking hard, yet I can't point to anything in particular causing it.

Is it a shy Tory/shy Liberal effect?

I think its what Rogue Beaver was saying: voters returning to their traditional parties. The NDP have almost no base voters in Atlantic Canada. People will vote for a popular NDP leader or candidate, but the NDP doesn't have many habit voters like the Tories or Grits do.

[DC Al Fine]

LOL @ this TorStar headline:

Liberals poised for upset in New Brunswick election

Because nothing says upset like leading the polls for 2 years

[DC Al Fine]

Also, is anyone else finding the new look of CBC's "New Brunswick votes" less user-friendly than the old clickable maps they used to have?

Yes

[DC Al Fine]

We need to start doing pro bono consulting for smaller parties. Lesson One: FOCUS ON WINNING A SEAT!!!!

The NDP ran way too broad of a campaign when they should've been focusing on 1-2 seats. That's fine when you'rep polling in the 20's, but when the NDP faded they hadn't put the resources into the leader's seat and they got screwed.