Clinton's Southern Ceiling

[Mr. Illini]

What would you consider to be Hillary's ceiling in the following states, and discuss:

Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Kentucky
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida


My opinion in a landslide year....

In a landslide, Hillary would obviously be taking Florida and Virginia, and it can be assumed that North Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia would flip next.

After that, I think Arkansas goes to her for the Clinton effect in a landslide.

Louisiana does not, as it is a different state than it was in the '90s and African-American out-migration has made it more solidly Republican.

Tennessee would be the final state to go. This would be caused only by Hillary being able to better capture some of the suburban areas in the state, which I think she could do in a landslide (similarly in Missouri and Georgia).

[King]

Flip TN with LA and your opinion is correct.

[Liberalrocks]

[Rockefeller GOP]

I'd personally include KY (but I can at least fathom while many would leave it out) and I'm frankly astonished no one has included the relatively Democratic state of WV in her CEILING ... Hillary got more votes in the '08 Democratic primary there than Obama did in the general election and almost certainly would have won it if she had been the nominee.  Even 8 years later, I can't imagine she wouldn't take it in a landslide situation.  Here's mine:

[TDAS04]

I think Hillary has better chances in Kentucky and West Virginia than in Louisiana (not that I think she has that much of a chance in any).  Louisiana is in the Deep South, and thus more inelastic and racially polarized.

[Mr. Illini]

I'd personally include KY (but I can at least fathom while many would leave it out) and I'm frankly astonished no one has included the relatively Democratic state of WV in her CEILING ... Hillary got more votes in the '08 Democratic primary there than Obama did in the general election and almost certainly would have won it if she had been the nominee.  Even 8 years later, I can't imagine she wouldn't take it in a landslide situation.  Here's mine:

West Virginia is a lot different of a state politically than it was even 8 years ago.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think Hillary has better chances in Kentucky and West Virginia than in Louisiana (not that I think she has that much of a chance in any).  Louisiana is in the Deep South, and thus more inelastic and racially polarized.

WV=Coal/LA=Cajun. Hillary would win LA before WV easily.

[tmthforu94]

Look where she is at now and that is likely her ceiling - she can only go down from here, especially in the South where the GOP nominee will constantly be tying her to Obama.

Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are obvious. I think I'd go ahead and say she has a reasonable shot in Missouri and Georgia. Arkansas will probably only go in a moderate landslide, and the rest only fall if we're talking about a 500 EV, 60% of the Popular Vote landslide.

[IceSpear]

On an election night 2016 with Hillary the nominee is the first thing looked for is if Georgia is called for the Republican in the first hour or not? Would some of us wait to look at Florida?

Georgia is REALLY slow at counting their votes, so probably not. Assuming that Hillary wins Florida by 5 points or more, it will be fairly apparent in the early results (IIRC, Florida had about half its vote counted as soon as the polls closed there). If that happens, it will be curtains for the GOP and a very boring election night, where the anchors all have to feign suspense until 11 PM.

As for the topic, it really depends what we mean by ceiling. Against Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, she could probably sweep the South besides AL/MS. As for a REALISTIC ceiling, I'd say VA/NC/FL/MO/AR. 8 years ago I definitely could've seen her winning states like WV/KY/TN/LA, but I think they've changed too much since then, although she will do much better than Obama there and could be within single digits.

[Never]

[RR1997]

[BaconBacon96]

I think Arkansas will go before Georgia and maybe even Missouri.

[pbrower2a]

Here's how I think they fall

States that Hillary Clinton really can't lose in a win     247 EV
248-263
Virginia, likely tipping-point state, 264-276
277-347
348-391
392-455
456-493, Texas

Others -- forget about it. In gray.


Nebraska districts:

2nd, "A" -- 391
1st, "B" -- 421
3rd, "C" -- 538 
 

[DS0816]

Kentucky and Tennessee haven't carried differently from each other since Dwight Eisenhower's first election in 1952.

In that time frame, Arkansas and Louisiana carried differently in 1964. (Though in 1948, Harry Truman became the first Democrat elected without having carried Louisiana, one of the precious few Confederacy states that carried for Strom Thurmond and, in 1964, for Barry Goldwater.)

The "Southern Ceiling" isn't as important as the OP of the thread may suggest. (The Democrats have their base states in ones which have a better historical record in getting carried in presidential elections.)

[dmmidmi]

This seems reasonable.

[tarheel-leftist85]

With narrow margins in states she loses, and the impending blowout in Florida, she will probably narrowly win the entire region.

[MATTROSE94]

In 2008, Hillary Clinton probably would have won every state in the South except Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina. For 2016, however, I can only see Hillary Clinton carrying Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. I was tempted to include Missouri, but it seems to be shifting towards being a solid Republican state, as evident by Mitt Romney's almost 10 point win in the state in 2012.

[JRP1994]

Using the Census-designated South, her ceiling would be.........

Loss

Narrow Win (<5%)

Convincing win (between 5% and 10%)

Landslide win (>10%)

[DS0816]

In 2008, Hillary Clinton probably would have won every state in the South except Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina. For 2016, however, I can only see Hillary Clinton carrying Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. I was tempted to include Missouri, but it seems to be shifting towards being a solid Republican state, as evident by Mitt Romney's almost 10 point win in the state in 2012.

The former bellwether state of Missouri has carried similarly to Indiana, a 2008 Democratic pickup (the first since 1964), with its percentage margins over both election cycles. There was no more than a 1.16-percentage margin between the two over the last two cycles of 2008 and 2012. The female vote of Missouri is what's trending Republican. The male vote was on par with the national numbers of 2008 and 2012.

If Hillary Clinton were to be the 2016 Democratic nominee, get elected (and win with a national margin conspicuously above Barack Obama's re-election margin from 2012), then if one of the two states is apparently emerging as part of the battleground map the other is likely to come along.

In 1996, Colorado (a Republican pickup for losing challenger Bob Dole) and Virginia produced margins less than a full percentage point from each other. Since that election cycle, these two states have boasted no more than a 3.53-percentage margin (from 2004) over the last five presidential election cycles of 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 (Democratic pickups, with both, for Barack Obama), and 2012.

This may becoming a similar pattern with Missouri and Indiana.