Which scenario is more likely for Clinton in 2016?
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  Which scenario is more likely for Clinton in 2016?
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Poll
Question: Which scenario is more likely for Clinton in 2016?
#1
She wins Arkansas and Missouri
 
#2
She loses Virginia and North Carolina
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Which scenario is more likely for Clinton in 2016?  (Read 2028 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: August 04, 2014, 12:53:04 PM »
« edited: August 04, 2014, 12:58:14 PM by Mr. Illini »



OR



And please discuss.

I think that even though the one scenario deals with two swing states and the other scenario deals with two not-really-swing states, it is still a tough one considering her organization and name-recognition. Since she is at the advantage to begin with, it seems to me that she would be easier able to pull in two Pub states than lose in Virginia.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2014, 12:59:33 PM »

I don't think Missouri is coming back..or even Arkansas. If Clinton loses, she loses southern Mid-Atlantic.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2014, 10:05:42 PM »

Missouri, Virginia, and North Carolina can realistically be won by either party.  Arkansas is too Republican for a Democrat pickup.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2014, 11:06:48 PM »

Probably number two, but my money is that she wins all four vs. any probable GOP nominee.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2014, 12:23:07 AM »

If Clinton loses in 2016 then she's probably losing VA and NC.  She's not coming anywhere close in MO or AR unless there's a wave developing in her favor.

Assuming that Clinton has a 40% chance of losing the GE (and that's being extremely generous to her abilities as a campaigner) and only a 20% chance of winning against a Republican in a rout (which, one again, is being extremely generous to her) then the odds of option 2 are probably around 40% while the odds of option 1 probably struggle to break 10%.

This poll shouldn't even be close, the fact that it is is illustrative of the extreme amount of pro-Hillary hackery present on this forum.  
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2014, 01:30:42 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2014, 01:33:57 AM by IceSpear »

If Clinton loses in 2016 then she's probably losing VA and NC.  She's not coming anywhere close in MO or AR unless there's a wave developing in her favor.

Assuming that Clinton has a 40% chance of losing the GE (and that's being extremely generous to her abilities as a campaigner) and only a 20% chance of winning against a Republican in a rout (which, one again, is being extremely generous to her) then the odds of option 2 are probably around 40% while the odds of option 1 probably struggle to break 10%.

This poll shouldn't even be close, the fact that it is is illustrative of the extreme amount of pro-Hillary hackery present on this forum.  

The problem is you're operating from a flawed premise. If the election were held today, Hillary would be the 99% favorite. Maybe in your opinion she'll eventually fall to a 60% (or less), but that's just, like, your opinion man.

Also, Hillary winning MO/AR wouldn't necessarily require a landslide, just a relatively comfortable win.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2014, 07:28:01 AM »

It seems more likely that Hillary Clinton would lose a state that Obama lost in 2012 and another state that has matched the national vote in the last two elections than she is to win states Obama lost by over nine points. Arkansas is a special case given Hillary's unique ties to the state, but even a twenty point improvement over Obama wouldn't help her win the state.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2014, 08:11:38 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2014, 03:24:13 PM by lolbaddecision »

She could possibly have a shot in Missouri, but I am skeptical of her chances in Arkansas. Option two is more likely. In the event that a Republican wins, VA and NC will likely go Republican.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2014, 03:49:09 PM »

Probably option 2.  While Hillary winning Missouri and Arkansas is possible, there's a good chance it won't happen, even in a Clinton victory.  If it's a good night for the GOP, Hillary loses Virginia and North Carolina.  
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Blue3
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2014, 05:51:07 PM »

She's not going to lose Virginia.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2014, 05:54:45 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2014, 05:56:21 PM by TDAS04 »


If she doesn't lose Virginia, then she probably isn't going to lose the election.
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