If Clinton loses in 2016 then she's probably losing VA and NC. She's not coming anywhere close in MO or AR unless there's a wave developing in her favor.
Assuming that Clinton has a 40% chance of losing the GE (and that's being extremely generous to her abilities as a campaigner) and only a 20% chance of winning against a Republican in a rout (which, one again, is being extremely generous to her) then the odds of option 2 are probably around 40% while the odds of option 1 probably struggle to break 10%.
This poll shouldn't even be close, the fact that it is is illustrative of the extreme amount of pro-Hillary hackery present on this forum.
The problem is you're operating from a flawed premise. If the election were held today, Hillary would be the 99% favorite. Maybe in your opinion she'll eventually fall to a 60% (or less), but that's just, like, your opinion man.
Also, Hillary winning MO/AR wouldn't necessarily require a landslide, just a relatively comfortable win.
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