Del Tachi
Republican95
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Posts: 17,864
Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46
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« on: August 05, 2014, 12:23:07 AM » |
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If Clinton loses in 2016 then she's probably losing VA and NC. She's not coming anywhere close in MO or AR unless there's a wave developing in her favor.
Assuming that Clinton has a 40% chance of losing the GE (and that's being extremely generous to her abilities as a campaigner) and only a 20% chance of winning against a Republican in a rout (which, one again, is being extremely generous to her) then the odds of option 2 are probably around 40% while the odds of option 1 probably struggle to break 10%.
This poll shouldn't even be close, the fact that it is is illustrative of the extreme amount of pro-Hillary hackery present on this forum.
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