Will Rand Paul give up his Senate seat to run for President in 2016?

[Blue3]

This is probably the key question on whether or not Rand Paul runs in 2016, or waits until 2020 or 2024. (If he does run, other issues will resurface, but this seems to be his main barrier to entry).

So, will Rand give up his Senate seat for a chance to be considered as GOP presidential nominee (in a probable GE battle against Hillary Clinton), or won't he?

[henster]

The 2014 election should tell us if he gives it up or not, if the KY Dems keep the state House then they can block any plan to remove the law barring him from running for both offices.

[Blue3]

The 2014 election should tell us if he gives it up or not, if the KY Dems keep the state House then they can block any plan to remove the law barring him from running for both offices.

They could also get another Democratic governor.

[henster]

The 2014 election should tell us if he gives it up or not, if the KY Dems keep the state House then they can block any plan to remove the law barring him from running for both offices.

They could also get another Democratic governor.

It only takes a simple majority to override the Governor's veto so they could still repeal the law even with a Democratic Governor if both chambers are controlled by Rs.

[King]

n.o.

[Dixie Reborn]

He will run for President but won't give up his Senate seat. If the Kentucky State Leg. doesn't approve  the bill which would let him do that, then he'll simply quit the Presidential race if he polls badly in the primaries.

[Dixie Reborn]

Also, Kentucky in 2020 will have either an open race, or an incumbent Democrat (if turtle-face loses), so Paul can easily return to the Senate four years later if he loses the presidential election.

[ShadowRocket]

2016 is probably his best chance to actually win, so unless he completely flops as a candidate, I think he will. Though he'll probably delay a decision until the last possible moment.

[henster]

I am hopeful for a Massie v. Edelen race in 2016 I think it would absolutely be competitive.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I don't think he'll have to.  I think the legislature will end up removing the law.

[rpryor03]

The 2014 election should tell us if he gives it up or not, if the KY Dems keep the state House then they can block any plan to remove the law barring him from running for both offices.

[whanztastic]

2016 is probably his best chance to actually win, so unless he completely flops as a candidate, I think he will. Though he'll probably delay a decision until the last possible moment.

[henster]

The filing period for Kentucky candidates ends in January he would have a very limited window to change his mind.

[Vosem]

I'm inclined to say yes, unless he flops hard in the summer of 2015. He won't be reconsidering these things come January, and he's made it abundantly clear that he's running. So unless he's the new Pawlenty (which is doubtful), he'll be out of the Senate in 2017, probably replaced by Massie. His influence comes not from his seniority in the Senate or position on committees, but because he's one of the most prominent Republicans with his sort of views, and that's because he intends to run for President. In other words, I think he stands more to lose by not running than by giving up his Senate seat.

[Suburbia]

I'm inclined to say yes, unless he flops hard in the summer of 2015. He won't be reconsidering these things come January, and he's made it abundantly clear that he's running. So unless he's the new Pawlenty (which is doubtful), he'll be out of the Senate in 2017, probably replaced by Massie. His influence comes not from his seniority in the Senate or position on committees, but because he's one of the most prominent Republicans with his sort of views, and that's because he intends to run for President. In other words, I think he stands more to lose by not running than by giving up his Senate seat.

If Paul runs for president and loses the nomination, he'll probably be replaced by Thomas Massie. It may be Massie vs. Ben Chandler or Alison Lundergan Grimes (if she loses to McConnell in 2014)

[daveosupremo]

I think there is very little doubt that he will run in the primary. However, if he doesn't have it locked up by late December he may give some thought to stepping aside and endorsing an acceptable alternative.

I think the only scenario in which Rand Paul does not run for president is if he and Ted Cruz come to an agreement where Cruz runs in 2016 and promises Paul a cabinet position in exchange for an endorsement. That keeps Paul's Senate seat safe in 2016, makes him available for 2020 if Cruz loses, and pads his resume for 2024 if Cruz wins.

[Free Bird]

I think there is very little doubt that he will run in the primary. However, if he doesn't have it locked up by late December he may give some thought to stepping aside and endorsing an acceptable alternative.

I think the only scenario in which Rand Paul does not run for president is if he and Ted Cruz come to an agreement where Cruz runs in 2016 and promises Paul a cabinet position in exchange for an endorsement. That keeps Paul's Senate seat safe in 2016, makes him available for 2020 if Cruz loses, and pads his resume for 2024 if Cruz wins.

Seems reasonable

[Mr. Morden]

I think there is very little doubt that he will run in the primary. However, if he doesn't have it locked up by late December he may give some thought to stepping aside and endorsing an acceptable alternative.

It would be highly unusual for a presidential candidate to drop out of the race when they're still in the upper tier of candidates, polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Sure, if Paul has an epic, Giuliani-esque early state flameout, then he might drop out and run for Senate.  But if he's still one of the top contenders in January 2016, then I don't see him giving it all up just to hang on to his Senate seat.  If he's that devoted to his Senate seat, then he shouldn't run for president in the first place.