2016 Senate elections

[Del Tachi]

So?

Is the GOP capable of accomplishing such a feat even if the map in 2016 will be heavily biased against them?

[ElectionsGuy]

Maybe, but in another thread discussed here, the GOP would likely need a wave this year and pick up 7, 8, or 9 seats in order to have a chance. We probably know that they are at least going to lose 1 or 2 seats, inevitably.

[Dixie Reborn]

The GOP will pick up Nevada and Colorado even if Hillary runs and wins. Washington & Oregon are also excellent pickup opportunities, but they would depend on how the national scene plays out. Illinois will be a tossup, but still very winnable for the GOP. Republicans may lose either North Carolina or Wisconsin, but once again, they would depend on what the national scene looks like. In Missouri, Jay Nixon isn't running, so Blunt is pretty much safe unless he gets a TP challenger, who would obviously make the GE more competitive. Overall, I predict a net change of R+1 or R+2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO? Gardner was the best you can do and he still is gonna lose.  And Reid was vulnerable in a wave election, if Sandoval doesnt run then he survives.

Robin Kelly will most likely be our nominee for IL. And turnout blk and Latino vote. Those three we will win at very least.

[free my dawg]

Talk about CO - he thinks Oregon could be in play.

Ron Wyden is perfect for Oregon. He's there as long as he wants to be.

[moderatevoter]

So obviously, this is still pretty early, and there are many variables (national environment, retirements, who ends up running, etc).

Alabama - Safe R, but the primary could be interesting.
Alaska - Likely R, even if Murkowski goes down in a primary.
Arizona - Tilt R. McCain's approvals are poor, so he's vulnerable, even if he runs for re-election.
Arkansas - Likely R, unless Beebe runs. I still think Beebe would be the underdog.
California - Safe D, even if Boxer retires (as I hope she will).
Colorado - Lean D. Who does the GOP run here? Coffman?
Connecticut - Safe D.
Florida - Lean R with Rubio, Tossup if Rubio runs for President.
Georgia - Between Lean and Likely R if Isakson runs again. Tilt R if it's an Open Seat.
Hawaii - Safe D.
Idaho - Safe R.
Illinois - Lean D. In 2010, Kirk barely won and with less than 50%. I do not think Madigan will run, but unless the Illinois Democratic Party really messes up, they are favored to take this seat.
Indiana - Likely R, but more competitive if Coats retires or if Bayh runs (I don't think the latter is likely).
Iowa - Likely/Safe R with Grassley. Tossup if it's an Open Seat.
Kansas - Safe R.
Kentucky - Likely R with Rand Paul, Lean R if Open Seat.
Louisiana - Likely/Safe R.
Maryland - Safe D.
Missouri - Lean R if Nixon doesn't run. If Nixon runs, Tilt R.
Nevada - Tilt D without Sandoval, Tossup/Tilt R with Sandoval.
New Hampshire - Tilt R. I don't think Lynch runs. Hassan might (not sure she will). If she does, this is a Tossup. If she doesn't, I think Ayotte is favored unless the environment is toxic.
New York - Safe D.
North Carolina - Tilt/Lean R with Burr, Tossup if an Open Seat.
North Dakota - Safe R.
Ohio - Lean R.
Oklahoma - Safe R.
Oregon - Safe D.
Pennsylvania - Tilt R. Toomey is in a similar situation as Ayotte, but with Kathleen Kane's issues, the PA Dem bench isn't nearly as good. I think Toomey can hold on if the environment isn't terrible for the GOP.
South Carolina - Safe R.
South Dakota - Safe R.
Utah - Safe R, but that could change if Matheson decides to run.
Vermont - Safe D.
Washington - Likely/Safe D.
Wisconsin - If Feingold runs, this race starts out at Lean D. If Feingold doesn't run, this race starts out as a Tossup. I honestly don't see Johnson winning this race, unless the GOP wins the Presidential Election (and makes it close in or wins Wisconsin).

For the GOP to hold the Senate in 2016, they'd probably have to win 8 - 9 seats this year (SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, and CO). So they'd start out with 53 or 54 seats. I don't see the GOP holding Illinois or Wisconsin, but I do think they can hold some of the other marginal seats without the environment being like 1994/2010. That said, the GOP needs a few breaks to go its way (with retirements and Democratic challengers).

[IceSpear]

So obviously, this is still pretty early, and there are many variables (national environment, retirements, who ends up running, etc).

Alabama - Safe R, but the primary could be interesting.
Alaska - Likely R, even if Murkowski goes down in a primary.
Arizona - Tilt R. McCain's approvals are poor, so he's vulnerable, even if he runs for re-election.
Arkansas - Likely R, unless Beebe runs. I still think Beebe would be the underdog.
California - Safe D, even if Boxer retires (as I hope she will).
Colorado - Lean D. Who does the GOP run here? Coffman?
Connecticut - Safe D.
Florida - Lean R with Rubio, Tossup if Rubio runs for President.
Georgia - Between Lean and Likely R if Isakson runs again. Tilt R if it's an Open Seat.
Hawaii - Safe D.
Idaho - Safe R.
Illinois - Lean D. In 2010, Kirk barely won and with less than 50%. I do not think Madigan will run, but unless the Illinois Democratic Party really messes up, they are favored to take this seat.
Indiana - Likely R, but more competitive if Coats retires or if Bayh runs (I don't think the latter is likely).
Iowa - Likely/Safe R with Grassley. Tossup if it's an Open Seat.
Kansas - Safe R.
Kentucky - Likely R with Rand Paul, Lean R if Open Seat.
Louisiana - Likely/Safe R.
Maryland - Safe D.
Missouri - Lean R if Nixon doesn't run. If Nixon runs, Tilt R.
Nevada - Tilt D without Sandoval, Tossup/Tilt R with Sandoval.
New Hampshire - Tilt R. I don't think Lynch runs. Hassan might (not sure she will). If she does, this is a Tossup. If she doesn't, I think Ayotte is favored unless the environment is toxic.
New York - Safe D.
North Carolina - Tilt/Lean R with Burr, Tossup if an Open Seat.
North Dakota - Safe R.
Ohio - Lean R.
Oklahoma - Safe R.
Oregon - Safe D.
Pennsylvania - Tilt R. Toomey is in a similar situation as Ayotte, but with Kathleen Kane's issues, the PA Dem bench isn't nearly as good. I think Toomey can hold on if the environment isn't terrible for the GOP.
South Carolina - Safe R.
South Dakota - Safe R.
Utah - Safe R, but that could change if Matheson decides to run.
Vermont - Safe D.
Washington - Likely/Safe D.
Wisconsin - If Feingold runs, this race starts out at Lean D. If Feingold doesn't run, this race starts out as a Tossup. I just don't see Johnson winning this race, unless the GOP wins the Presidential Election (and makes it close or wins Wisconsin).

I pretty much agree with this, except I think NC will be a toss up even if Burr runs for re-election. He's basically anonymous, so I don't see him having much advantage as an incumbent, and NC will surely be fiercely competitive in the presidential race.

As for CO, it's possible Gardner could run again if he loses this year. Bennet is weaker than Udall, but 2016 will (presumably) have a more Democratic electorate than 2014 will, so those differences probably cancel out.

[Dixie Reborn]

Here's my list of the best possible Republican Senate candidates:

Alabama - Richard Shelby
Alaska - Lisa Murkowski
Arizona - Anyone other than John McCain
Arkansas - John Boozman
California - David Valadao
Colorado - Mike Coffman
Connecticut - Jodi Rell
Florida - Mario Diaz-Balart or Lizbeth Benacquisto if Rubio runs for Pres.
Georgia - Johnny Isakson
Hawaii - Duke Aiona
Idaho - Anyone
Illinois - Mark Kirk or Bruce Rauner (only if Kirk retires)
Indiana - Dan Coats
Iowa - Chuck Grassley
Kansas - Anyone
Kentucky - Andy Barr if Rand Paul runs for Pres.
Louisiana - Charles Boustany
Maryland - Michael Steele or Rob Sobhani as a Republican
Missouri - Roy Blunt
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte
New York - Richard Hanna
North Carolina - Richard Burr
North Dakota - Tom Hoeven
Ohio - Rob Portman
Oklahoma - James Lankford
Oregon - Greg Walden
Pennsylvania - Pat Meehan
South Carolina - Anyone
South Dakota - Anyone
Utah - Mike Lee
Vermont - Philip Scott
Washington - Jaime Herrera Beutler
Wisconsin - Rebecca Kleefisch

[Dixie Reborn]

CO? Gardner was the best you can do and he still is gonna lose.  And Reid was vulnerable in a wave election, if Sandoval doesnt run then he survives.

Robin Kelly will most likely be our nominee for IL. And turnout blk and Latino vote. Those three we will win at very least.

Reid could still face a competitive race if Brian Krolicki or Joe Heck run.

[Free Bird]

I think the control runs on how many Pubs win this year, and what the mood is. Besides Johnson and Kirk, I don't see anyone vulnerable besides maybe Toomey, and those two losses could be covered by taking out Reid and Bennett with, say, Gardner if he loses. Even if Pubs make no gains and lose a seat, but win the White House, Vice President Carson (calling it right now) will have the tiebreaker

[Dixie Reborn]

I think the control runs on how many Pubs win this year, and what the mood is. Besides Johnson and Kirk, I don't see anyone vulnerable besides maybe Toomey, and those two losses could be covered by taking out Reid and Bennett with, say, Gardner if he loses. Even if Pubs make no gains and lose a seat, but win the White House, Vice President Carson (calling it right now) will have the tiebreaker

VP Carson? LOL no.

[free my dawg]

Alabama - Safe R (the only thing worth watching is the primary)
Alaska - Safe R (Likely R if Murkowski is primaried/Likely Murkowski if she runs an I)
Arizona - Lean R (I'm skeptical that Democrats are ready to take it - maybe if Franks or Hayworth run they might have a chance)
Arkansas - Likely R (only because of Beebe/Hillary, but I think Halter runs)
California - Safe D (my gut is that Harris/Newsom run)
Colorado - Lean D (their only candidate is going for Udall, and Coffman won't give up his seat to the Dems to run. I might be able to see Tipton going for it though)
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean R (lolsink, lolcrist, loldws)
Georgia - Likely R (I could see Nunn or Carter run if they make a close race, and if it's an open seat I'd dare to say it Tilts R)
Hawaii - Safe D (regardless)
Idaho - Safe R (Primary Watch - my gut is that Labrador takes down Crapo)
Illinois - Lean D (I think Duckworth or Kelly take on Kirk, and they're favored for now)
Indiana - Likely R (unless Bayh gets the Senate itch again)
Iowa - Likely R (considering Grassley seems fairly set on running)
Kansas - Safe R (Moran actually lives in the state)
Kentucky - Likely R (Lean R if Rand runs for president)
Louisiana - Safe R (I'm just assuming Vitter wins at this point but it'd be Likely R because of Mitch)
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Tilt R (Tilt D with Nixon)
Nevada - Tilt D (I don't know if Sandoval runs or not, but it's a toss-up if he does)
New Hampshire - Toss-up (Lynch will not run. I don't think Hassan will run either, but I think Kuster will. This leans R with Shea-Porter though)
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Toss-up (nobody knows who Burr is, and even then he seems fairly weak)
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Toss-up (Kane or Sestak could make it competitive, and this looks like the closest two)
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R (even with Matheson)
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Likely D (I suppose this could flip if there's a perfect storm, like JHB running+a bad mood)
Wisconsin - Lean D (Johnson only has one issue - the national debt, and other than that he's been too conservative for his state.)
Wyoming - Safe R

[GaussLaw]

Yes.

Honestly, let's get through with 2014 first.  Then, we can think about 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Dems maintain prez but miss out on House, Dems win with a decent candidate in Illinois and maintain CO and NV.

If the Dems pickup House, Johnson, Kirk and Toomey fall and MO with Nixon and open seat in FLand NH are wildcards for 4 seat plus net gain.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Yes.

Honestly, let's get through with 2014 first.  Then, we can think about 2016.

Cue someone starting up the 2018 Senate thread.

[Never]

The GOP will have great difficulty taking the Senate in 2016 if they haven't done so this midterm.

If the Republican party does in fact win control of the body this year, the size of its majority would impact their chances of retaining control. A majority of 51-52 seats is tenuous, especially if a Democrat wins the presidency. In order to maintain their edge in the Senate under this scenario, Republicans would definitely have to win the White House and have a good night nationwide. A Republican win similar to 2000 would not suffice. The party would have to have a 2004 level of support.

The party's chances of holding a majority starting out with at least 53 seats is much easier. In this case, the Republicans could afford to lose in Illinois and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, or both of the latter two if the party manages a pickup in Nevada, which is the most vulnerable Democratic-held seat in 2016.

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Safe R with Murkowski, Likely R without her
Arizona - Lean R with McCain, Tossup without him
Arkansas - Likely R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D, due to weak GOP bench, but Tilt D if Gardner loses this year and runs in '16
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Tilt R with Rubio, Tossup without him
Georgia - Likely R with Isakson (I expect him to run), Tossup without him
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Indiana - Likely R
Iowa - Likely R with Grassley, Tilt D without him
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R with Paul, Lean R without him
Louisiana - Likely R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Lean R, Tossup with Nixon
Nevada - Tossup with Sandoval, Tilt D without him
New Hampshire - Tossup with Ayotte, Tilt D without her (possible VP pick)
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Tilt R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Tossup
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Tilt D

[NHLiberal]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R with Murkowski; Likely R without Murkowski
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R without Beebe; Toss-Up with Beebe
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R with Isakson; Toss-Up without Isakson
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R without Crapo; Likely R with Crapo
Illinois: Toss-Up with Kirk; Likely D without Kirk
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R with Grassley; Lean D without Grassley
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Likely R with Paul; Lean R Without Paul
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Lean R without Nixon; Lean D with Nixon
Nevada: Lean R with Sandoval; Lean D without Sandoval
New Hampshire: Toss-Up with Ayotte; Lean D without Ayotte
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R without Matheson; Likely R with Matheson
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Likely D
Wisconsin: Lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, lets start out Wisconsin as Lean D right away...

[free my dawg]

Yeah, lets start out Wisconsin as Lean D right away...

His only remote moment in the spotlight was being the guy who Clinton flipped out on re: Benghazi, and even then conservatives don't mention him. He's too conservative for Wisconsin, actually has a record for any competent candidate to attack, so his opponent should win in two years. He's not Kirk-level vulnerable, but he's pretty vulnerable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, lets start out Wisconsin as Lean D right away...

His only remote moment in the spotlight was being the guy who Clinton flipped out on re: Benghazi, and even then conservatives don't mention him. He's too conservative for Wisconsin, actually has a record for any competent candidate to attack, so his opponent should win in two years. He's not Kirk-level vulnerable, but he's pretty vulnerable.

The last poll (and maybe the only one) that I saw had Kind and Johnson neck and neck. We didn't put Arkansas Lean R 1-2 years prior just because Pryor looked vulnerable. Obviously candidates matter, but its too early to call races with incumbents leaning to the other party. Johnson's up for a tough battle, and I think he has a 55-60% chance of losing in 2016, but I think its a toss-up until we get details in a year or so.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Yeah, lets start out Wisconsin as Lean D right away...

His only remote moment in the spotlight was being the guy who Clinton flipped out on re: Benghazi, and even then conservatives don't mention him. He's too conservative for Wisconsin, actually has a record for any competent candidate to attack, so his opponent should win in two years. He's not Kirk-level vulnerable, but he's pretty vulnerable.

I always ventured a guess than Johnson's thought process of being too conservative for Wisconsin was because he figured he would probably lose in 2016, but if he got reelected (which isn't impossible), then woohoo for him.

[free my dawg]

Yeah, lets start out Wisconsin as Lean D right away...

His only remote moment in the spotlight was being the guy who Clinton flipped out on re: Benghazi, and even then conservatives don't mention him. He's too conservative for Wisconsin, actually has a record for any competent candidate to attack, so his opponent should win in two years. He's not Kirk-level vulnerable, but he's pretty vulnerable.

The last poll (and maybe the only one) that I saw had Kind and Johnson neck and neck. We didn't put Arkansas Lean R 1-2 years prior just because Pryor looked vulnerable. Obviously candidates matter, but its too early to call races with incumbents leaning to the other party. Johnson's up for a tough battle, and I think he has a 55-60% chance of losing in 2016, but I think its a toss-up until we get details in a year or so.

Mark Pryor also wasn't far-left (and was looking closer to facing a corrupt, weak lieutenant governor in Mark Darr) for reasons we're all familiar with. Ron Johnson votes like he's in a deep-red state, despite his state's lean, and he's a fairly anonymous figure in Wisconsin himself. If Kind was as well-known as Feingold was, I'm sure he'd be favored by at least 5 himself against Johnson.

[SWE]

Kirk is toast. Johnson only has a chance if Feingold declines, and even then he'd be an underdog. Ayotte will lose barring a 2010-style wave, and Democrats will win Arizona unless McCain retires or loses his primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pickup of IL and WI and depending on how big Clinton wins Pa, we can win that too.

NH, FL and MO are wildcards, but a 51-49 senate will become 55-45 with a Clinton win.

[Suburbia]

I see Democrats picking up IL, WI, PA. Possibly NH or FL, depending on the Democratic candidate.