2016 Senate elections

[Maxwell]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Lean R without McCain, Toss-Up with McCain
Arkansas: Likely R (Don't think Beebe is gonna run)
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Likely R with Isakson, Lean R without Isakson
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Lean D
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R with Grassley; Toss-Up without Grassly
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Lean R
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Lean R
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Likely D
Wisconsin: Lean D

[Dixie Reborn]

Alabama: Safe Republican with Shelby, Likely Republican if Shelby loses in Primary
Alaska: Safe Republican
Arizona: Leans Republican
Arkansas: Safe Republican
California: Safe Democrat
Colorado: Tossup
Connecticut: Safe Democrat
Florida: Leans Republican
Georgia: Likely Republican
Hawaii: Safe Democrat
Idaho: Safe Republican
Illinois: Tossup/Tilts Democrat
Indiana: Safe Republican
Iowa: Safe Republican with Grassley, Tossup without Grassley
Kansas: Safe Republican
Kentucky: Likely Republican
Louisiana: Depends who gets appointed
Maryland: Safe Democrat
Missouri: Likely Republican (Nixon isn't running)
Nevada: Leans Republican with Sandoval, Leans Democrat without Sandoval
New Hampshire: Leans Republican with Ayotte, Tossup/Tilts Democrat without Ayotte
New York: Safe Democrat
North Carolina: Leans Republican
North Dakota: Safe Republican
Ohio: Leans Republican, Pure Tossup if Portman loses in Primary
Oklahoma: Safe Republican
Oregon: Safe Democrat with Wyden, Likely Democrat without Wyden
Pennsylvania: Leans Republican
South Carolina: Safe Republican
South Dakota: Safe Republican
Utah: Likely Republican
Vermont: Safe Democrat
Washington: Leans Democrat
Wisconsin: Pure Tossup

[Senator Cris]

Why Pennsylvania is "Lean Republican"?

[IceSpear]

Why Pennsylvania is "Lean Republican"?

I'm guessing for the same reason a lot of people had states like LA and NC as lean D two years in advance. Incumbents look more formidable when they don't have anyone actually running against them, and therefore have nothing to drag down their ratings. Many Democrats in red states had decent approval ratings two years advance, but millions in Koch funded ads later, their numbers went into the toilet. Expect the same to happen in reverse in states like IL/WI/PA, except replace Koch money with Steyer money.

I'd say the race is Tilt R at the moment, just because of the big uncertainty on who Toomey's opponent will be. But assuming he gets a credible challenger, the race will become a pure toss up very quickly. He'll surely outperform whichever Republican is at the top of the ticket, but with Hillary likely carrying the state by a bigger margin than Obama did in 2012, it will take a really special and well liked politician to find enough crossover votes to get it done. Toomey has political talent, but I'm not sure he's the type of Heitkamp/Collins/Brown/Warner etc. that can find that many crossover votes. It's worth noting he only won 51-49 in a historically good year for the GOP and much lower midterm turnout.

[Maxwell]

I suspect that Toomey is a stronger than average incumbent, and even in Pennsylvania, he has done a lot to make sure people know he's an independent thinker.

[KCDem]

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Safe R
Arizona: Lean R
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Lean D
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Likely R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Lean R
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up
[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems will have a very good of winning in Pa should Sestek run. Dem nominee should win IL and Pa big. Maggie Hassen will be very competetive in NH. And IL with Duckworth in IL and generic Dem running in WI we should be able to make headway in Senate.

Lastly, FL will be good to come our way as well.
3-5 seat net.

[NHLiberal]

The Dems will have a very good of winning in Pa should Sestek run. Dem nominee should win IL and Pa big. Maggie Hassen will be very competetive in NH. And IL with Duckworth in IL and generic Dem running in WI we should be able to make headway in Senate.

Lastly, FL will be good to come our way as well.
3-5 seat net.

Don't you mean Duckwerth?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The Dems will have a very good of winning in Pa should Sestek run. Dem nominee should win IL and Pa big. Maggie Hassen will be very competetive in NH. And IL with Duckworth in IL and generic Dem running in WI we should be able to make headway in Senate.

Lastly, FL will be good to come our way as well.
3-5 seat net.

I believe Sestak has already declared he's running.

[henster]

I think Toomey will have turnout problems in Pennsyltucky because of his embrace of gun control those issues are big there and its one of the reasons the region is so red god and guns you know. I don't expect him to get much crossover support either he's one of the most conservative Senators with a voting record similar to Ted Cruz he is a poor fit for the state overall.