How large will Kasich's victory be?
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  How large will Kasich's victory be?
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Author Topic: How large will Kasich's victory be?  (Read 4454 times)
Potus
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« on: August 05, 2014, 09:02:58 PM »

Given the fact that Kasich has led throughout the entire campaign and has solid fundamentals, Fitzgerald's affair has pretty much ended the discussion of outcome. Couple the affair with the bizarre story of a guy who is an unfaithful husband, father, and public servant who doesn't have a driver's license. He's done.

He admits he was driving. So that morning, he either stayed with his mistress after dropping her off or he drove illegally without a licensed driver in the car. Regardless, there is little debate about whether he broke the law during the 5 years he had no license. Fitzgerald is finished.

I'm projecting a 54-58% win. What do you all think?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2014, 09:07:43 PM »

There's no evidence he had an affair.

Anyway, probably around 53-45.
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Alreet
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2014, 09:10:24 PM »

6-8 points
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2014, 09:16:51 PM »

8-12 points. Probably on the upper end of that. Maybe more if things get worse, but I predict they will get slightly better.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2014, 09:18:21 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2014, 09:23:41 PM by ElectionsGuy »

I'm thinking upper single digits. As some have said, something like 53-45 or 53-44. It will definitely be a larger margin than Michigan or Wisconsin, it might even be on par with Branstad in Iowa.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2014, 09:19:23 PM »

58-40 or so. Similar to Portman's margin in 2010.
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Never
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2014, 09:27:55 PM »

I'm thinking upper single digits. As some have said, something like 53-45 or 53-44. It will definitely be a larger margin than Michigan or Wisconsin, it might even be on par with Branstad in Iowa.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2014, 09:30:07 PM »

Lower double digits. 55-43 or so.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2014, 11:05:33 PM »

53/44-ish.
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Vega
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2014, 11:07:07 PM »

There's no evidence he had an affair.

Anyway, probably around 53-45.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2014, 12:00:24 AM »

Plain Dealer columnist Brent Larkin says FitzGerald might do worse than Hagan's 38.3%. In light of the last week, I don't see how Fitz keeps it within 10 unless Kasich has a major scandal of his own. I talked to my parents about this today and my mom already knew about it from watching the local news and she knows next to nothing about politics. I'll go with something around Lief's answer, 58-40.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2014, 12:14:20 AM »

Low double digits. Kasich got pretty lucky in his opponent.
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LeBron
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2014, 05:26:58 AM »

There's no evidence he had an affair.

Anyway, probably around 53-45.
But, but.....it was at night and the eye witness said so!!!!!!! Sad

Joking aside, >OP assuming a Kasich win. Apart from the assumptions and allegations which I expect to make little impact on the overall competitiveness of the race, it will be incredibly close with FitzGerald winning this 50-49 with Rios getting 1%. I'm remaining optimistic that we as a campaign can pull this off in the end. We're facing a few downturns, but we also have some upturns.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2014, 07:08:30 AM »

Kasich wins 55-43 or so.
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Flake
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2014, 07:43:34 AM »

There's no evidence he had an affair.

Anyway, probably around 53-45.
But, but.....it was at night and the eye witness said so!!!!!!! Sad

Joking aside, >OP assuming a Kasich win. Apart from the assumptions and allegations which I expect to make little impact on the overall competitiveness of the race, it will be incredibly close with FitzGerald winning this 50-49 with Rios getting 1%. I'm remaining optimistic that we as a campaign can pull this off in the end. We're facing a few downturns, but we also have some upturns.

A few downturns? Your candidate can't even legally drive in Ohio anymore. That's pretty bad.

Kasich should win by 10-15 points,  something like 56-43-1
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2014, 08:00:35 AM »

Like Lee Fisher, Fitzgerld presents a nice guy image. Brown, who endorsed the guy already had already won federal office already. Fitzgerald's office isnt that recognizable and Kasich will win by a sizable majority.

Risky strategy if you dont have a lead in race.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2014, 10:42:20 AM »

So the big "scandal" is that FitzGerald didn't have a driver's license for 4 years of his adult life? How is this a "scandal"? If you don't drive, why get a license?

The right-wing media makes me sick.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2014, 10:49:13 AM »

If FitzGerald had active epilepsy and was barred from driving due to seizures, would the right-wing media make a "scandal" of that too?

What if he was legally blind?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2014, 11:01:35 AM »

If FitzGerald had active epilepsy and was barred from driving due to seizures, would the right-wing media make a "scandal" of that too?
If we was still driving, breaking the law and putting others in danger, I could definitely see why folks would be concerned.

Kasich wins by double-digits, and it will be closer to a 20% margin than a 10% margin. Maybe 56-40.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2014, 11:03:44 AM »

If we was still driving, breaking the law and putting others in danger, I could definitely see why folks would be concerned.

It turns out he did have a very limited license at the time - just not a full license.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2014, 01:46:34 PM »

If FitzGerald had active epilepsy and was barred from driving due to seizures, would the right-wing media make a "scandal" of that too?

What if he was legally blind?

I wouldn't vote for a blind guy who illegally drove around for like 10 years.  That is the definition of terrible judgement and would be quite a scandal.  One other thing, you know things are bad when the best argument your supporters can make is "What if he was legally blind?"
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2014, 01:49:46 PM »

I wouldn't vote for a blind guy who illegally drove around for like 10 years.

But he didn't drive around for 10 years. He didn't drive around at all except when he had a license.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2014, 01:50:17 PM »

If FitzGerald had active epilepsy and was barred from driving due to seizures, would the right-wing media make a "scandal" of that too?

What if he was legally blind?
Didn't you also dismiss the Walsh scandal as a right-wing smear tactic?
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Southern Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2014, 05:35:15 PM »

Probably around 56-41.
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2014, 08:35:45 PM »


So this is 4chan now.
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