AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

With the Republican party abandoning immigration reform and any pretext of outreach to Hispanics, it seems that they are going for the whole 'missing white voter strategy'. Republicans are going to double down on the xenophobia to win over a greater share of whites.

Sadly, whites in Arizona and other states may get even more Republican due to the growing number of brown immigrants and a kind of tribalist 'stick together' mentality.

[Maxwell]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

I don't think anybody would dispute that, even before this poll.

I'd absolutely dispute Arizona.

Arizona? Large Hispanic population to which  the GOP has nothing to offer. I have seen mixed results in the same poll. The Anglo population will eventually need to vote about 70% R for Republicans to win statewide.

Arizona is about eight years behind Colorado and Nevada, about ten years behind New Mexico, and about twenty years behind California in having a D edge instead of an R edge.   

Yes, the same Arizona that hasn't moved in the Democrats direction in years.

McCain's home state advantage kept Arizona from swing much in 2008, and the immigration controversy inhibited Obama from gaining ground there in 2012.  Clinton could be competitive in Arizona. 

She could, but that would require a total awful being the nominee like Jindal or Cruz. Running against anyone who has a single electibility cell and she loses Arizona. Maybe in a couple decades Arizona could flip, but not now.

[DS0816]

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if [John] McCain wasn't the nominee.

…
I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

It won't.

Arizona was one of seven states that did not shift at least 2.47 percent points more Democratic in 2008. Why that number, 2.47? Because George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004 by a margin of 2.46, and a shift of 2.47 in however many states was indicative of Barack Obama, the Democratic pickup presidential winner, being able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote. (Turns out there 43 states that shifted to at least the minimum level.)

A 2008 Arizona did not shift as far because it was native son John McCain nominated at the top of the Republican ticket.

Had Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 by more traditional numbers (say, three to five percentage points in his popular-vote margin and an increase with his electoral-vote score), he would won a Democratic pickup of Arizona (as well as Georgia). It would have theoretically been Mitt Romney winning, as he did, Republican pickups from Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (similar-level margins) while Obama countered with Democratic pickups with Georgia and Arizona, for 374 electoral votes.

In every presidential election since after the 1980s, the Republicans have averaged between 7 and 9 electoral votes per state carried. The Democrats have averaged between 11 and 13 electoral votes per state carried. Those 16 from Georgia and 11 from Arizona fall right in line with that average.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

Very true.  Not only do demographics favor the GOP in Arkansas, Hillary was never personally popular there.  Indeed, her feminist left posturing (referring to herself as Hillary Rodham) in 1980 was one of the factors in Bill Clinton losing his bid for re-election.

[KCDem]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

Very true.  Not only do demographics favor the GOP in Arkansas, Hillary was never personally popular there.  Indeed, her feminist left posturing (referring to herself as Hillary Rodham) in 1980 was one of the factors in Bill Clinton losing his bid for re-election.

LOL

[DS0816]

Confirms my belief that Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina are well above Arkansas as Democratic 2016 targets.

Very true.  Not only do demographics favor the GOP in Arkansas, Hillary was never personally popular there.  Indeed, her feminist left posturing (referring to herself as Hillary Rodham) in 1980 was one of the factors in Bill Clinton losing his bid for re-election.

Is it true that you're not a single day under the age of 101?

[The Free North]

With the Republican party abandoning immigration reform and any pretext of outreach to Hispanics, it seems that they are going for the whole 'missing white voter strategy'. Republicans are going to double down on the xenophobia to win over a greater share of whites.

Sadly, whites in Arizona and other states may get even more Republican due to the growing number of brown immigrants and a kind of tribalist 'stick together' mentality.

Dont disrespect the god of aesthetics with garbage posts like this.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama would've come very close to carrying Arizona in 2008 if [John] McCain wasn't the nominee.

…
I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).

It won't.

Arizona was one of seven states that did not shift at least 2.47 percent points more Democratic in 2008. Why that number, 2.47? Because George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004 by a margin of 2.46, and a shift of 2.47 in however many states was indicative of Barack Obama, the Democratic pickup presidential winner, being able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote. (Turns out there 43 states that shifted to at least the minimum level.)

A 2008 Arizona did not shift as far because it was native son John McCain nominated at the top of the Republican ticket.

Had Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 by more traditional numbers (say, three to five percentage points in his popular-vote margin and an increase with his electoral-vote score), he would won a Democratic pickup of Arizona (as well as Georgia). It would have theoretically been Mitt Romney winning, as he did, Republican pickups from Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (similar-level margins) while Obama countered with Democratic pickups with Georgia and Arizona, for 374 electoral votes.

In every presidential election since after the 1980s, the Republicans have averaged between 7 and 9 electoral votes per state carried. The Democrats have averaged between 11 and 13 electoral votes per state carried. Those 16 from Georgia and 11 from Arizona fall right in line with that average.

The AZ results are scarily, scarily similar for the last 15 years... when it comes to the Dem vote.
2000: Bush 50.9-Gore 44.7
2004: Bush 54.8-Kerry 44.3
2008: McCain 53.5-Obama 44.9
2012: Romney 53.5-Obama 44.5

AZ is different to the rest of the SW as the white vote is larger and much older. While its not immune to demographic shifts, it has proven to be very very slow and stubborn to change.

GA, MT are more likely to go Clinton before AZ does. Even when Bill won AZ in 1996, he only won with 46.5% of the vote, which is the best performance by a Democrat since Johnson in '64.

[DS0816]

GA, MT are more likely to go Clinton before AZ does. Even when Bill won AZ in 1996, he only won with 46.5% of the vote, which is the best performance by a Democrat since Johnson in '64.

After the 1980s the margins carried in Arizona and Georgia have been within a five-point spread from each other in every election cycle with exception of 2004 (when it was a six-point spread).

If we get a third consecutive Democratic presidential victory in 2016, and the margin is above that of a re-elected Barack Obama's from 2012, it will be North Carolina followed by Georgia and then Arizona. In the case of the latter two, if a winning Democrat goes from Barack Obama's 26 carried states, from 2012, to reach 29 then Arizona and Georgia become a part of it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

With the Republican party abandoning immigration reform and any pretext of outreach to Hispanics, it seems that they are going for the whole 'missing white voter strategy'. Republicans are going to double down on the xenophobia to win over a greater share of whites.

Sadly, whites in Arizona and other states may get even more Republican due to the growing number of brown immigrants and a kind of tribalist 'stick together' mentality.

Dont disrespect the god of aesthetics with garbage posts like this.

u mirin?

[henster]

Unless Hillary is comfortably leading by like 5-10 points she is not going to contest any Romney states outside of NC. Her focus is going to be holding the Obama states you only expand the map if your in a comfortable position but polls show her struggling in states like IA, CO you can forget about trying to pick up GA, AZ, AR etc.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

So much for those racists who only hated Obama.

[IceSpear]

Unless Hillary is comfortably leading by like 5-10 points she is not going to contest any Romney states outside of NC. Her focus is going to be holding the Obama states you only expand the map if your in a comfortable position but polls show her struggling in states like IA, CO you can forget about trying to pick up GA, AZ, AR etc.

Why go solely into a defensive posture when other opportunities are available? That sounds like the John Kerry loser strategy. IA/CO will be irrelevant if she maintains a solid lead in FL anyway. Of course, you can always re-evaluate over the course of a campaign whether or not it's worth continuing to invest in particular states, but to immediately give up on ones that polls show you have potential in would be foolish.

[DS0816]

Unless Hillary is comfortably leading by like 5-10 points she is not going to contest any Romney states outside of NC. Her focus is going to be holding the Obama states you only expand the map if your in a comfortable position but polls show her struggling in states like IA, CO you can forget about trying to pick up GA, AZ, AR etc.

Are people here still gullible to actually believe that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election with a map showing a failure to hold Colorado yet win a Democratic pickup of North Carolina? There was a spread in the margins of 7.40 percentage points between those two states. If she's winning the 2016 election with including a Democratic pickup of North Carolina, there will no concern with Colorado and there certainly wouldn't be a concern with Iowa.

[eric82oslo]

Unless Hillary is comfortably leading by like 5-10 points she is not going to contest any Romney states outside of NC. Her focus is going to be holding the Obama states you only expand the map if your in a comfortable position but polls show her struggling in states like IA, CO you can forget about trying to pick up GA, AZ, AR etc.

Are people here still gullible to actually believe that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election with a map showing a failure to hold Colorado yet win a Democratic pickup of North Carolina? There was a spread in the margins of 7.40 percentage points between those two states. If she's winning the 2016 election with including a Democratic pickup of North Carolina, there will no concern with Colorado and there certainly wouldn't be a concern with Iowa.

Don't worry. After Obama decides to legalize millions of undocumented immigrants come November/December, Colorado will rapidly tilt back to Democratic home turf once again. All Hillary needs to do in return, is probably just to start campaigning there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So much for those racists who only hated Obama.

Yeah, Hillary wouldn't lose AR by 20/25 like someone... 

[pbrower2a]

With the Republican party abandoning immigration reform and any pretext of outreach to Hispanics, it seems that they are going for the whole 'missing white voter strategy'. Republicans are going to double down on the xenophobia to win over a greater share of whites.

Sadly, whites in Arizona and other states may get even more Republican due to the growing number of brown immigrants and a kind of tribalist 'stick together' mentality.

In no part of the United States have white people ever had the antipathy toward Hispanics that they have shown to blacks. That includes hostility in employment and toward potential in-laws.