1976:Carter/Mondale vs. Reagan/Schweiker

[RRusso1982]

What would the electoral map in 1976 have looked like had Ronald Reagan beaten Gerald Ford for the nomination?  I think Reagan would have lost some states Ford won (New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Maine, Illinois) but done a lot better in the south.  He probably would have won Texas, and Schweiker likely would have delivered Pennsylvania.

[President Johnson]

Reagan loses the election, because the country was not ready for such a conservative president in 1976. After Carter won the election over Reagan, I see a comeback for Gerald Ford in 1980. After serving one term (he would have been term limited in 1984) with George Bush as Vice President, Bush might have won the White House in 1984. In 1988 he is reelected and in 1992 the Democrats win again with Bill Clinton.

Former Governor Jimmy Carter/Senator Walter Mondale 311 EV. 51.0%
Former Governeir Ronald Reagan/Senator Richard Schweiker 227 EV. 47.6%

[MATTROSE94]

Reagan loses the election, because the country was not ready for such a conservative president in 1976. After Carter won the election over Reagan, I see a comeback for Gerald Ford in 1980. After serving one term (he would have been term limited in 1984) with George Bush as Vice President, Bush might have won the White House in 1984. In 1988 he is reelected and in 1992 the Democrats win again with Bill Clinton.

Former Governor Jimmy Carter/Senator Walter Mondale 311 EV. 51.0%
Former Governeir Ronald Reagan/Senator Richard Schweiker 227 EV. 47.6%

That map looks about right, though Jimmy Carter would have a pretty good shot at winning Vermont and Michigan against Ronald Reagan. Aa for his future after losing, I could see Ronald Reagan getting elected to the Senate in 1980 agains Alan Cranston.

[Mr. Smith]

Michigan would definitely go to Carter,...but Vermont,no Vermont needed a centrist like Clinton to get off the anti-Democrat complex it had.

Reagan just didn't say "extremist" like Goldwater (despite arguably being MORE extreme than Goldwater)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Carter/Mondale      51%  321
Reagan/Schweiker  47% 217

[Person Man]

Would Conservatism be the big deal it is today? Or would they find another standard bearer for 1980...or even 84 or 88?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Would Conservatism be the big deal it is today? Or would they find another standard bearer for 1980...or even 84 or 88?

If the Right is able to get Reagan the nomination in 76, I think they'd be able to do it again in 80, when the environment is more friendly to him, and movement conservatism has more institutional strength.

[Prince of Salem]

Michigan would definitely go to Carter,...but Vermont,no Vermont needed a centrist like Clinton to get off the anti-Democrat complex it had.

Carter was quite a centrist, actually. He had to be, being a former governor from the Deep South. He definitely held a chance in Vermont. More than one, I'd say.