Who will win these House races?
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  Who will win these House races?
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Poll
Question: Which candidate will win in each race?
#1
AZ-02: Ron Barber (D)
 
#2
AZ-02: Martha McSally (R)
 
#3
CA-52: Scott Peters (D)
 
#4
CA-52: Carl DeMaio (R)
 
#5
CO-06: Andrew Romanoff (R)
 
#6
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R)
 
#7
IA-03: Staci Appel (D)
 
#8
IA-03: David Young (R)
 
#9
NY-21: Aaron Woolf (D)
 
#10
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 44

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Author Topic: Who will win these House races?  (Read 821 times)
NHLiberal
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« on: August 06, 2014, 01:06:05 PM »

There are only 5 House races rated as pure toss-up by all five major House rankings-- Cook, DailyKos, Rothenberg, Sabato, and RCP. They are:

AZ-02: Ron Barber (D), first elected in a 2012 special election, is seeking reelection to this R+3 seat.
His likely opponent is Martha McSally, an Air Force colonel who he narrowly defeated in 2012.

CA-52: Scott Peters (D), first elected in 2012, is seeking reelection to this D+2 seat.
His opponent is former San Diego City Councillor Carl DeMaio, who trailed Peters 42-35 in the primary.

CO-06: Mike Coffman (R), first elected in 2008, is seeking reelection to this D+1 seat.
His opponent is former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

IA-03: Tom Latham (R), first elected in 1994, is retiring from this EVEN seat.
Vying to succeed Latham are State Senator Staci Appel (D) and Grassley staffer David Young (R).

NY-21: Bill Owens (D), first elected in 2008, is retiring from this EVEN seat.
Vying to succeed Owens are businessman Aaron Woolf (D) and Bush staffer Elise Stefanik (R).
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2014, 01:08:27 PM »

McSally, DeMaio, and Stefanik seem to definitely be at least mildly favored; the other two are less clear. Split the difference ultimately; voted for Appel, but otherwise all Republicans.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2014, 01:09:26 PM »

McSally, Peters, Coffman, Stefanik, Appel.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2014, 01:13:14 PM »

AZ-2 - McSally, I don't think Barber will be able hold the seat in a more conservative turnout model.
CA-52 - My hope is DeMaio wins, and it looks like he has a mild advantage at the moment, but this is a Toss-Up seat.
CO-06 - Romanoff will likely win this seat. Coffman is far too conservative for this moderate district.
Then again, Romanoff is pretty liberal, so this will probably be close.
IA-03 - Young is probably the best candidate for this seat, but I don't know what's going to happen here.
NY-21 - IDK
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Never
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2014, 01:18:02 PM »

McSally, Peters, Coffman, Stefanik, Appel.

Basically this, though DeMaio might be able to pull off a win if the political climate improves for Republicans; I still voted Peters in CA-52.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2014, 01:22:12 PM »

AZ-01: McSally ATM, but Barber could win if he runs a better campaign than he did in 2012.
CA-52: I'm going to go with Peters very narrowly; DeMaio is a tough opponent, but I'v heard a lot about him being overrated.
CO-06: Coffman, mostly because he's a survivor and the overall climate of this year. Romanoff could at least soften Coffman up for a rematch in 2016 thuogh.
IA-03: Appell. She seems to be running the better campaign.
NY-21: Stenfanik is a mild favorite here, IMO. I'd probably have this Tilt/Lean R.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2014, 01:23:45 PM »

AZ-01: McSally ATM, but Barber could win if he runs a better campaign than he did in 2012.
CA-52: I'm going to go with Peters very narrowly; DeMaio is a tough opponent, but I'v heard a lot about him being overrated.
CO-06: Coffman, mostly because he's a survivor and the overall climate of this year. Romanoff could at least soften Coffman up for a rematch in 2016 thuogh.
IA-03: Appell. She seems to be running the better campaign.
NY-21: Stenfanik is a mild favorite here, IMO. I'd probably have this Tilt/Lean R.

Agree with your analysis entirely except for CO-06 where I think Romanoff will pull it out
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2014, 03:41:10 PM »

Barber, Coffman, Peters, Woolf.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2014, 04:30:19 PM »

McSally, DeMaio, Romanoff, Appel, Stefanik
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SWE
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 12:31:00 PM »

McSally, DeMaio, Romanoff, Young, Stefanik
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 05:52:57 PM »

Well I guess I should answer my own question...

In my opinion...
52-48 odds McSally wins in AZ-02 (this was the toughest one)
56-44 odds Peters wins in CA-52
57-43 odds Romanoff wins in CO-06 (I am fairly bullish on this particular race)
55-45 odds Appel wins in IA-03
85-15 odds Stefanik wins in NY-21 (not sure why all firms still list this as a toss-up)
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2014, 07:31:54 PM »

From what I can tell, the CO-6 debate was particularly brutal on Coffman and they have mail in ballots in Colorado now. The only way Coffman survives is that the Republicans pull a Reaganesque sweep of the state because of high turnout from militarized paleos.
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KCDem
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2014, 07:36:25 PM »

Barber, Peters, Romanoff, Appel, Stefanik.  Net change R+0
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Flake
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2014, 09:00:32 PM »

All will go to the Democrats except for NY-21.
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