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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 06, 2014, 04:10:57 PM »
« edited: August 07, 2014, 03:30:04 PM by NHI »

2014 Midterms: Snapshot of Key Races for Control of the US Senate

Virginia: 99% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Mark Warner: 52.1%
Ed Gillespie: 47.0%

Arkansas: 100% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Mark Pryor: 50.9%
Tom Cotton: 48.1%

North Carolina: 100% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Kay Hagan: 52.4%
Tom Tillis: 43.9%
Sean Haugh: 2.7%

New Hampshire: 99% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Jeanne Shaheen: 49.3%
Scott Brown: 47.4%
Gardner Goldsmith: 2.3%

Iowa: 99% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Bruce Braley: 49.6%
Joni Ernst: 48.7%

Colorado: 100% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Mark Udall: 50.4%
Cory Gardner: 49.1%

Kentucky: 100% Reporting (R-HOLD)
√ Mitch McConnell: 49.5%
Allison Lundergan Grimes: 48.8%

Alaska: 100% (D-HOLD)
√ Mark Beigch: 44.9%
Mead Treadwell: 41.1%
Joe Miller: 14.0%

REPUBLICANS FALL SHORT, DEMOCRATS KEEP THE SENATE
Democrats: 49 (+2 Independents=51)  (-4)
Republicans: 49 (+4)

Bob Smith: "New Hampshire is a microcosm of what happened!"
Former United States Senator from New Hampshire and Republican candidate Bob Smith offered his thoughts on the state of the Republican Party following the election results Tuesday night. "I'll tell you why we didn't win and it's simple, conservative Republicans feel betrayed and abandoned so they stayed home. Scott Brown doesn't speak for them, the Republican Party's platform as it stands doesn't speak for them. They're out in the wilderness, and they had no stake in this race because the difference between Scott Brown and and Jeanne Shaheen is gender identity, nothing more, nothing less." Smith lost to Brown in the NH Republican Primary 49 percent to 40 percent with former state Senator Jim Rubens taking 9 percent.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2014, 05:13:04 PM »

Democrats would probably have an easier time in Iowa if their candidate's name actually was Barley
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2014, 08:00:31 AM »

Wow these are weird results
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2014, 04:03:36 PM »

2014 SNAPSHOT: Gubernatorial Elections

New Hampshire: 100% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Maggie Hassan: 59.9%
Andrew Hemingway: 38.6%

Massachusetts: 100% Reporting (D-HOLD)
√ Martha Coakley: 54.4%
Charlie Baker: 43.7%

Wisconsin: 100% Reporting (D-PICKUP)
√ Mary Burke: 50.1%
Scott Walker: 48.9%

Maine: 100% Reporting (D-PICKUP)
√ Mike Michaud: 42.1%
Paul LePage: 40.9%
Eliot Cutler: 15.0%

Michigan: 100% Reporting (R-HOLD)
√ Rick Synder: 51.7%
Mark Schauer: 47.4%

Ohio: 100% Reporting (R-HOLD)
√ John Kasich: 52.0%
Ed FitzGerald: 45.9%

Republican: 26 (52%)
Democrats: 24 (48%)
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Southern Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2014, 04:05:43 PM »

How did Warner struggle so badly in Virginia: a state that Dems have done well in recent years including sweeping the three major statewide office last fall ?
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2014, 10:50:01 PM »

What, might I ask, we're the results for Senate and Governor in Georgia? 
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2014, 11:27:45 PM »

I want to see where this goes.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2014, 09:04:41 AM »

What, might I ask, we're the results for Senate and Governor in Georgia? 

Georgia: Senate
√ David Perdue: 51.4%
Michelle Nunn: 47.7%

Georgia: Gubernatorial
√ Nathan Deal: 47.8%
Jason Carter: 47.7%
Andrew Hunt: 4.0%
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Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2014, 09:23:52 AM »

In Florida, Crist wins by... ? Smiley
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2014, 09:55:21 AM »


Florida:
√ Charlie Crist: 49.5%
Rick Scott: 49.3%
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2014, 09:55:57 AM »

2016: Democrat(s) Profile

Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic Nomination in 2016, since November 5th, 2008, and some would argue even before. Clinton declared her candidacy after much speculation. The announcement came in April 2015. Instantly, she assumed the position of frontrunner and led the pack. Other prominent candidates, including Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gilibrand passed on runs and backed Clinton for President.

Other Democrats, like Vice President Joe Biden, teeter-tottered on a possible campaign, but ultimately passed in June and endorsed Hillary. Clinton planned on a possible challenge, as it was in her best interests for the nomination to be handed to her after some competition, even if token competition at best!

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders threw his hat into the ring, prior to Clinton's announcement, but struggled to gain much traction. He focused on the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton's campaign focused early on rallying Democratic support and then pivoting to the general election and taking aim at her likely Republican opponents (Christie, Bush or Paul). Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley entered the race in late August of 2015, but struggled in terms of fundraising, name ID and lack of a campaign message. He came across as the Democrat's Tim Pawlenty. Great on paper, but lacking any charisma.

She agreed to one debate with Bernie Sanders and O'Malley, to take place in New Hampshire in December 2015. Sanders, who focused on Iowa and New Hampshire took pleasure in the single debate to attack Clinton as a "heir to the corporatism and debunked economic policies that have been continued by both Republican and Democratic Presidents."

O'Malley appeared to be jockeying for the Vice President spot on the ticket with Clinton, going out of his way to compliment her and push his own brand. Some pundits declared he had the potential as a candidate in 2020, should Clinton lose or at  the latest in 2024. O'Malley's campaign struggled throughout the primary process and by New Hampshire, after a dismal showing in Iowa, finished third and dropped out and endorsed Clinton.

Hillary Clinton largely ran a gaffe-free campaign, though many pundits and Democratic operatives criticized her for lacking a unifying campaign message or theme. She seemed to be distancing herself from Barack Obama, pushing her own ideas and addressing how to fix the healthcare debacle (Obamacare) that the GOP continued to cry: Needed to go! On foreign policy, she seemed to be pushing a far more aggressive and even hawkish stance than Obama, something that gave Sanders a point to contrast with her on, but like his entire campaign he failed to gain traction on the issue.

In the final analysis the Clinton Campaign and prospective Clinton Presidency would be more in the same vein of a third term of Bill Clinton. A return to triangulation, an emphasis on breaking through the gridlock and working with both Republicans and Democrats to tackle the big issues facing the country, like Social Security reform, balancing the budget and reforming healthcare. To staunch liberal a Clinton President offered anything but a path forward, more a return to the past, though what helped Clinton was the strong favorability of her husband Bill and the fondness for the Clinton years as a time of prosperity and peace.

By Super Tuesday Clinton secured the nomination and with the primary finally behind her she focused to full general election mode. Eight years after having her clock cleaned by Barack Obama in a stunning upset, Hillary Clinton was now the presumptive Democratic Nominee for President of the United States.


Bernie Sanders's odds of winning the Democratic Nomination were long and hard at best, and if by some miracle he did secure it, the chances of him becoming the 45th President of the United States, were even more remote! A self-described socialist would surely be trounced even by the craziest right-wing Republican a la Ted Cruz... Regardless, the Vermont Senator announced his campaign, long before Hillary Clinton officially declared.

He spent his time and energy in New Hampshire and Iowa, with a belief that a strong showing or even a possible upset in either state would set him on a path to at least be competitive with Hillary Clinton. Unfortunately, for Bernie that opportunity never came. He struggled in fundraising and without a single debate until right before the primaries and caucuses commenced it was seen by many as too little too late.

As a US Senator he did command some intention, more so than a Dennis Kucinich or Alan Grayson, both whom considered running for President. However, he lacked any strong backing. Progressive and liberal icon Elizabeth Warren threw her support behind Clinton from the start and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who many thought would back Sanders chose to remain neutral during the primary.

All Sanders could do was opt for free coverage and make the town hall circuit. Throughout New Hampshire and Iowa, he held over 100 events, more than Martin O'Malley in both states. Despite a gallant effort Sanders failed to gain any steam and though he pulled strong in New Hampshire and Iowa, he failed to topple Clinton or even tarnish her slightly. By Super Tuesday, low on funds and campaign infrastructure Sanders' campaign officially collapsed and Clinton secured the Democratic nomination. Throughout the process, Sanders won only one contest, his home state of Vermont, which he carried on Super Tuesday, by a margin of 73 percent to 27 percent.

Clinton rode to the nomination like an incumbent, she had the power, the majesty and the money to steamroll any opponent.



From the start no one took a Martin O'Malley Presidential Campaign seriously, including Martin O'Malley! Right out of the starting gate he was seen as the likely Vice Presidential nominee and merely his campaign existed as a vehicle to raise his platform. In a field without Clinton, he might have possibly gained traction, but from Day One he came off as a liberal Tim Pawlenty: Boring, dull and Vice Presidential.

Snapshot of Democratic Primary Results:

Iowa Caucuses : 100% Reporting (January 26, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 59%
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Martin O'Malley: 11%

New Hampshire Primary: 100% Reporting (February 2, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 63%
Bernie Sanders: 31%
Martin O'Malley: 5%

Nevada Caucuses: 100% Reporting (February 6, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 74%
Bernie Sanders: 23%

Arizona Primary: 100% Reporting (February 16, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 83%
Bernie Sanders: 15%

Michigan Primary: 100% Reporting (February 16, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 79%
Bernie Sanders: 20%

South Carolina: Primary 100% Reporting (February 27, 2016)
√ Hillary Clinton: 88%
Bernie Sanders: 11%

√ Hillary Clinton: 12,549,311
Bernie Sanders: 1,443,001
Martin O'Malley: 678,900
Other: 405,333
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