TNR: Democrats Have a White Working Class Problem — and Not Just in the South

[Never]

In an article for the New Republic, Andrew Levinson, author of The White Working Class Today: Who They Are, How They Think and How Progressives Can Regain Their Support, advances the view that the Democratic party's issues with white working class voters is not strictly isolated to the South, rather, it is a problem in most non-coastal states. Levinson opines that if Democrats ignore their low standing with this group, the Obama coalition and favorable demographic might prove ineffective in coming years.

The article at hand should definitely be read in its entirety, but there was one map within the piece that caught my eye:



Any thoughts?

[Sol]

Define "White Working Class".

[Linus Van Pelt]

Define "White Working Class".

The author appears to define it simply as "whites with less than a four-year college degree", with no other economic component. (And presumably excluding white Hispanics, though this is never explicitly stated).

Terrible definition.

[cbannon5]

I'd imagine that Hillary Clinton would perform better among the white working class than President Obama did.  Seeming as she crushed Obama in this demographic during the primary. 

[GaussLaw]

Honestly, this map isn't much different than if we just had it as "whites" in general.

Whites with a college degree may be somewhat more Democratic than whites without one, but income disparities make it pretty close to even.

[GaussLaw]

Also, according to the article, Obama won only 40% of "large metro" whites w/o a college degree.  I wonder if these people actually live within city limits, as Dems do pretty well with urban whites.

[Never]

Define "White Working Class".

The author appears to define it simply as "whites with less than a four-year college degree", with no other economic component. (And presumably excluding white Hispanics, though this is never explicitly stated).

Terrible definition.

Just curious, what is your specific definition? Levinson's was quite simplistic, but I'd like to know which economic component you factor in your view of the white working class. Other commentators, like the New York Times' Thomas Edsall, define white working class in the same manner as Levinson.

Here is Edsall's general definition:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd imagine that Hillary Clinton would perform better among the white working class than President Obama did.  Seeming as she crushed Obama in this demographic during the primary. 

That's probably true, keeping in mind Clinton's strong performances in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and (of course) Arkansas during the 2008 Democratic nomination. That was six years ago, but it might still have some application to 2016.

Honestly, this map isn't much different than if we just had it as "whites" in general.

Whites with a college degree may be somewhat more Democratic than whites without one, but income disparities make it pretty close to even.

I suppose the white working class map wasn't that different from whites as a whole.

Honestly, I wish that the map I included could have been broken down state by state for a better comparison. Separating the white working class into five regions as opposed to fifty states doesn't do as much justice to this topic as I'd like, but since the media is not carrying out exit polls in every state, I suppose this is the best we can do.

There were some differences between the white vote and the white working class vote, for instance, perhaps Colorado and Iowa shouldn't have been grouped with the states they were put in. I do know that Obama won whites overall in Iowa in 2012, but the margin was thin (51/49), so perhaps Obama overperformed just enough with college educated whites to outweigh a loss with white working class voters.

Also, according to the article, Obama won only 40% of "large metro" whites w/o a college degree.  I wonder if these people actually live within city limits, as Dems do pretty well with urban whites.

That's a reasonable concern. I can't imagine that Obama actually did that poorly with the white vote in large metro areas.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Define "White Working Class".

The author appears to define it simply as "whites with less than a four-year college degree", with no other economic component. (And presumably excluding white Hispanics, though this is never explicitly stated).

Terrible definition.

So Bill Gates or Scarlett Johansson are working class whites?  Makes sense...

[Linus Van Pelt]

Define "White Working Class".

The author appears to define it simply as "whites with less than a four-year college degree", with no other economic component. (And presumably excluding white Hispanics, though this is never explicitly stated).

Terrible definition.

Just curious, what is your specific definition? Levinson's was quite simplistic, but I'd like to know which economic component you factor in your view of the white working class.

I mean, it's a pretty vague category. I don't have some alternative specific boundary to draw. One could do it in terms of income, or in terms of employment status somehow, I guess.

But really there's no reason not to just say "non-Hispanic whites without college degrees", if that's what you want to study.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I don't know about the non-Hispanic part, but "whites without college degrees" is a standard definition of "white working class." Democratic analysts like Ruy Texiera and John Judis tend to define it that way. As blago's post points out, you end up with some strange company under that heading, but it's not something the author made up.

[eric82oslo]

The article at hand should definitely be read in its entirety, but there was one map within the piece that caught my eye:



Any thoughts?

New Mexico having faster growth than Virginia? What the heck? Don't think so. Virginia had one of the fastest growth rates in the country and New Mexico one of the slowest, last time I check. Especially so in total numbers.

[Never]

The article at hand should definitely be read in its entirety, but there was one map within the piece that caught my eye:



Any thoughts?

New Mexico having faster growth than Virginia? What the heck? Don't think so. Virginia had one of the fastest growth rates in the country and New Mexico one of the slowest, last time I check. Especially so in total numbers.

It seemed like the states were couched together arbitrarily. I don't necessarily agree with this map, but it is striking for sure.

[eric82oslo]

One what should not forget is that that so-called working class is getting more and more centred around males. For instance in Norway, about (or slightly more than) 50% of young females either have a university or college degree today, while the same percentage of young males is only around 30%. That's an enormous gap/difference!

[Never]

One what should not forget is that that so-called working class is getting more and more centred around males. For instance in Norway, about (or slightly more than) 50% of young females either have a university or college degree today, while the same percentage of young males is only around 30%. That's an enormous gap/difference!

That is a big difference. So I take it that the working class decline in support for Democratic candidates has a great deal to do with the gender composition of this group, since males are more Republican from the start?

[eric82oslo]

One what should not forget is that that so-called working class is getting more and more centred around males. For instance in Norway, about (or slightly more than) 50% of young females either have a university or college degree today, while the same percentage of young males is only around 30%. That's an enormous gap/difference!

That is a big difference. So I take it that the working class decline in support for Democratic candidates has a great deal to do with the gender composition of this group, since males are more Republican from the start?

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Also, it's been greatly elaborated on that people without education everywhere, in every country, is much more prone to having conservative views on social issues than those deciding to educate themselves.

[Devils30]

Article is completely unsupported by facts, makes more sense to lump Iowa with Illinois and the rest of the Midwest than lump Iowa West Virginia Oklahoma together and Virginia along with Arkansas and Tennessee in a different category. Fact is a white working class person in Iowa is MUCH more likely to be Democratic than one in Oklahoma.

[All Along The Watchtower]

There are lots of Southern and Appalachian transplants (as well as their descendants)  in other parts of the country, FTR. Look at the Central Valley in California for a good example.

[hcallega]

I think it's pretty clear that the Democrats need to develop a strong message to these voters (and I think this definition is pretty good, compared to most others) and I think Clinton's the one to do it.

[NHLiberal]

Yup, and if Democrats don't recommit to their pro-union, pro-labor, pro-working families stances, this problem will just worsen.