Basque Elections the 17th

[Bono]

Things will probably get better for the PNV, because BAtasuna's "White List" wasn't allowed by the constitutional court to run.
Essentially, this elections are an antecipated referendum to the Ibaretxe secession plan, which might cause a swing of the left abertzale electorate to the PNV, regardless if the Batasuna decies to support the emmergent Communist Party of the Basque Lands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls?

[Bono]

Polls?

Cadena Ser, or more detailed

PNV-EA coalition(right-Wing Nationalist): 45%- 38/39 seats.
PSOE(Socialist): 21% 17/18 seats
PP(conservative): 17% 13/14 seats
(total 75 seats)
5% said they would vote for Aukera Guztiak, the ilegalized left-wing nationalist party, and will probably vote PNV.

[Bono]

yesterday's:
PNV-EA: 45,5% 36 to 38 seats
PP: 15,3% 13 seats
PSOE: 20,6% 18 to 20 seats
United Left: 6,7% 5 seats
ARALAR 2.3% 1 seat
6% willing to support a political formation somewhat linked to the Batasuna.

[Bono]

Current distribution:
Ruling Coalition:
PNV - 26 seats
EA  - 7 seats

PP - 18 seats
Socialists - 13 seats

Nationalist Left Coalition(Euskal Herritarrok) - 7 seats
United Left - 3 seats

Unidad Alavesa(Alavesan Provincial Party) - 1 seat

[Bono]

C'mon, I busted my arse doing this...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's pretty interesting, but I dunno what to say

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't Batasuna basically ETA?

[Bono]

Isn't Batasuna basically ETA?

Batasuna is to ETA what Sinn Feinn is to IRA.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Polls?

Cadena Ser, or more detailed

PNV-EA coalition(right-Wing Nationalist): 45%- 38/39 seats.
PSOE(Socialist): 21% 17/18 seats
PP(conservative): 17% 13/14 seats
(total 75 seats)
5% said they would vote for Aukera Guztiak, the ilegalized left-wing nationalist party, and will probably vote PNV.

Why is the illegal left-wing party willing to vote for the right-wing party?  Just because their both nationalists?

[Bono]

Polls?

Cadena Ser, or more detailed

PNV-EA coalition(right-Wing Nationalist): 45%- 38/39 seats.
PSOE(Socialist): 21% 17/18 seats
PP(conservative): 17% 13/14 seats
(total 75 seats)
5% said they would vote for Aukera Guztiak, the ilegalized left-wing nationalist party, and will probably vote PNV.

Why is the illegal left-wing party willing to vote for the right-wing party?  Just because their both nationalists?

Yes.
After Euskadi becomes independent their party will be legal again, so they some of them vote for the only other ones who favor independence. Some others won't of coruse.

[Bono]

Yesterday's polls:

PNV/EA coalition 43,5% 37/38 seats
PP 15,6 % 13 seats
PSOE 24,5% 20/21 seats
United Left 6.4% 4 seats
Unidad Alavesana 0.2% No seats
Aralar 1.6% No seats
Communist Party of the Basque Lands 2.5% No seats
3% willing to vote for a party near Batasuna

[Bono]

Other interesting survey data:

Nationalist Feeling:
When asked how they feel regarded to their nationality:
Uniquely Spanish: 8,7%
More Spanish than basque: 3,7%
As Spanish as Basque: 37,4%
More Basque than Spanish: 17,9%
Uniquely Basque: 26,1%

[Bono]

Batasuna Throws Support Behind Communist Party of teh Basque Lands

This will probably hurt the PNV/EA coalition.

[Bono]

Yep, the commies really ed things up for the PNV:

EAJ-PNV / EA: 44,3% 35/36 seats.
PP: 14,5% 13 seats.
PSOE: 23,5% 18 / 20 seats.
United Left: 6,6% 4 seats
ARALAR: 2,6% 1 seat.
Communist Party of the Basque Lands: 2/3 seats.

Nationalist Feeling:
Uniquely Spanish: 9,4%
More Spanish than basque: 3,5%
As Spanish as Basque: 37,0%
More Basque than Spanish: 16,4%
Uniquely Basque: 28,5%

"Who do you believe will form government after the elections?"
Nationalist Parties: 55,6%
Non-Nationalist Parties: 1,3%
Coalition of Both: 25,7%

"Who would you rather form government after the elections?"

Nationalist Parties: 34,7%
Non-Nationalist Parties: 13,7%
Coalition of Both: 35,2%

"Who do you believe will be the next Lehendakari(head of government)?"
Ibarretxe(leader of the PNV and current Lehendakari: 84,2%
Patxi López(PSOE): 1,6%
Maria San Gil(PP): 0,9%

"Who would you rather be the next Lehendakari?"
Ibarretxe: 44,3%    
Patxi López: 15,0%
Maria San Gil: 9,6%
Other: 8,8%

"What party do you believe will win the elections?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 85,7%
PSOE: 1,8%
PP: 0,8%
Other: 0,6%

"What party would you rather win the elections?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 41,1%
PSOE: 16,9%
PP: 9,6%
Other: 11,5%

"In case no party got an absolute majority, what coalition would you rather have?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 8,0%
EAJ-PNV / EA / United Left: 29,4%
EAJ-PNV / EA / PSOE: 21,3%
PP / PSOE: 13,0%
Other: 12,4%

"Do you believe there is the need for a changing of party in the basque government?
Yes: 48,3%
No: 41,7%

Rate the following politicians from 0 to 10:
Ibaretxe: 5,75
Patxi López: 4,37
María San Gil: 3,09
Begoña Errazti(Eusko Alkartasuna, PNV's junior colaition party): 4,75
Javier Madrazo(United Left): 4,46
Arnaldo Otegui(Batasuna and former ETArra): 3,02     
Mariano Rajoy(Nationwide PP leader adn oposition leader): 2,72     
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero(Spanish PM): 4,90

"Rate the following parties from 1 to 10:
PNV: 5,57
PSOE: 4,63     
PP: 2,77
Eusko Alkartasuna: 4,71
United Left: 4,52     
Euskal Herria(batasuna, in practice): 2,81     

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So what's United Left and ARALAR?

[Bono]

So what's United Left and ARALAR?

United eft is a Spainwide left party of commies of various kinds.
ARALAR are like Batasuna-lite.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Yep, the commies really f**cked things up for the PNV:

EAJ-PNV / EA: 44,3% 35/36 seats.
PP: 14,5% 13 seats.
PSOE: 23,5% 18 / 20 seats.
United Left: 6,6% 4 seats
ARALAR: 2,6% 1 seat.
Communist Party of the Basque Lands: 2/3 seats.

Nationalist Feeling:
Uniquely Spanish: 9,4%
More Spanish than basque: 3,5%
As Spanish as Basque: 37,0%
More Basque than Spanish: 16,4%
Uniquely Basque: 28,5%

"Who do you believe will form government after the elections?"
Nationalist Parties: 55,6%
Non-Nationalist Parties: 1,3%
Coalition of Both: 25,7%

"Who would you rather form government after the elections?"

Nationalist Parties: 34,7%
Non-Nationalist Parties: 13,7%
Coalition of Both: 35,2%

"Who do you believe will be the next Lehendakari(head of government)?"
Ibarretxe(leader of the PNV and current Lehendakari: 84,2%
Patxi López(PSOE): 1,6%
Maria San Gil(PP): 0,9%

"Who would you rather be the next Lehendakari?"
Ibarretxe: 44,3%    
Patxi López: 15,0%
Maria San Gil: 9,6%
Other: 8,8%

"What party do you believe will win the elections?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 85,7%
PSOE: 1,8%
PP: 0,8%
Other: 0,6%

"What party would you rather win the elections?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 41,1%
PSOE: 16,9%
PP: 9,6%
Other: 11,5%

"In case no party got an absolute majority, what coalition would you rather have?"
EAJ-PNV / EA: 8,0%
EAJ-PNV / EA / United Left: 29,4%
EAJ-PNV / EA / PSOE: 21,3%
PP / PSOE: 13,0%
Other: 12,4%

"Do you believe there is the need for a changing of party in the basque government?
Yes: 48,3%
No: 41,7%

Rate the following politicians from 0 to 10:
Ibaretxe: 5,75
Patxi López: 4,37
María San Gil: 3,09
Begoña Errazti(Eusko Alkartasuna, PNV's junior colaition party): 4,75
Javier Madrazo(United Left): 4,46
Arnaldo Otegui(Batasuna and former ETArra): 3,02     
Mariano Rajoy(Nationwide PP leader adn oposition leader): 2,72     
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero(Spanish PM): 4,90

"Rate the following parties from 1 to 10:
PNV: 5,57
PSOE: 4,63     
PP: 2,77
Eusko Alkartasuna: 4,71
United Left: 4,52     
Euskal Herria(batasuna, in practice): 2,81     

Yep...Commies tend to f**k  things up wherever and whenever they get invloved.

[minionofmidas]

Why is Eusko Alkartasuna running a joint list with the PNV?

[Bono]

Why is Eusko Alkartasuna running a joint list with the PNV?

Well, they are governing together.
Why wouldn't they?

[minionofmidas]

Why is Eusko Alkartasuna running a joint list with the PNV?

Well, they are governing together.
Why wouldn't they?

...er...to see how they stand electorally, respective to each other? they are using proportional representation (though yes, it's D'Hondt, which somewhat favours larger parties, and thence also joint lists) so there isn't any need to run on a joint list... PSD and PP didn't run joint lists in the last Portuguese elections if memory serves...
I'd just like to know if there's any specific reason, but apparently not. Maybe it's just the way things are done in Spain...

[Bono]

Why is Eusko Alkartasuna running a joint list with the PNV?

Well, they are governing together.
Why wouldn't they?

...er...to see how they stand electorally, respective to each other? they are using proportional representation (though yes, it's D'Hondt, which somewhat favours larger parties, and thence also joint lists) so there isn't any need to run on a joint list... PSD and PP didn't run joint lists in the last Portuguese elections if memory serves...
I'd just like to know if there's any specific reason, but apparently not. Maybe it's just the way things are done in Spain...

YEs, PP and PSD didn't run joint lists this election, but they did it for the European Parliament Election, for instance, and they ahd done it in th 80s for the general.
But any ways this situation is a bit different. Eusko Alkartasuna is a splinter group from the PNV, though the animosity between then doesn't really exist anymore. TheWikipedia Article clears that up.
Besides, in Spain and Portugal too, there is a certain pressure for parties that govern together to run in joint lists, though obviously they don't always do. That pressure even happens somethimes in parties that do not govern together, like before the PSD/PP coalition got to power int eh 80s in Portugal, because voters like to know with which party the senior coalition member is going to form government. And no, it's not always that clear. In the 80s, Portugal witnessed a PS/PSD govenment and a PS/PP government.

[Bono]

No more polls for anyone. No polls allowed to be released in the week before teh elections.
Jus keep your fingers crossed...
By the way, what party is everyone rooting for?

[Jake]

Separatists, EAJ-PNV

[Notre Dame rules!]

I'd have to go with PNV-EA