AR-04: OnMessage (R): Westerman in the driver's seat

[Miles]

Article.

Westerman (R)- 47%
Witt (D)- 29%
Hamilton (L)- 7%
Undecided- 18%

Cotton leads 49/39 and Hutchinson 46/43 in CD4.

[GaussLaw]

Cotton's doing very well in the district.   Southern Arkansas is what gave Pryor the victory in 2002, so Pryor's going to need a very strong Delta/Little Rock performance to overcome this.  That being said, this is Cotton's district, but it's looking more like Cotton's in the driver seat here.

This was pretty much a Likely R race all year for the House, IIRC.

[Miles]

Granted, this is an internal, but it about lines up with TalkBusiness. I thought Witt would be a much better candidate. Westerman was considered the stronger Republican, but still.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

How can Cotton be cruising in his district yet still be about even with Pryor statewide?

[Miles]

^ Cotton should be clearly ahead if he were putting out a 10-point lead in CD4. The TalkBusiness poll only had Cotton +5 in CD4 but up 2 statewide.

If you adjust the TalkBusiness poll for a 49/39 Cotton lead in CD4 (easy because they weighted all CDs equal) Cotton would be up 45-41.5 (outside the MoE).

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder how Hutch is doing better statewide yet worse in the district. Could it be because Pryor is picking up old/disaffected democrats in AR-1 better than Ross? Ross seems like the better candidate overall.

[Miles]

^ Keep in mind both Ross and Cotton are from this district; you'd expect to see the most Cotton/Ross voters here.

Ross hasn't represented the newer (and more solidly R) parts of CD4, which account for about 20% of the district. I'd say with the voters that know him best (in the old CD4), Ross is probably breaking even or might be ahead.