Portman?

[Free Bird]

Apparently Rob Portman, who looks more VPish to me, is thinking of running for president. How would he fare against a generic D (NOT HILLARY THE TENTH RED HEFFER) if he was the nominee? He seems like a good dark horse; another Obama maybe that comes out of nowhere. His support for gay marriage might attract more liberal voters than usual, maybe even tighten up New England. Maps are welcome.

[NHLiberal]

He would be the best GOP nominee for 2016 and win in many scenarios

[Free Bird]

He would be the best GOP nominee for 2016 and win in many scenarios

Not sure if sarcastic or not, but his real challenge would be the primary.

[NHLiberal]

He would be the best GOP nominee for 2016 and win in many scenarios

Not sure if sarcastic or not, but his real challenge would be the primary.

I wasn't being sarcastic at all. I agree that it would be tough for him to get through a primary.

[Free Bird]

He would be the best GOP nominee for 2016 and win in many scenarios

Not sure if sarcastic or not, but his real challenge would be the primary.

I wasn't being sarcastic at all. I agree that it would be tough for him to get through a primary.

Then again, so it seemed for Barry

[NHLiberal]

He would be the best GOP nominee for 2016 and win in many scenarios

Not sure if sarcastic or not, but his real challenge would be the primary.

I wasn't being sarcastic at all. I agree that it would be tough for him to get through a primary.

Then again, so it seemed for Barry

To elaborate on my first post, the reason I think Portman would be so strong is because he has strong moderate/pragmatic credibility and appeal to independents and Democrats without the flaws of some of the other candidates in the same position (i.e. Bush's last name/lack of interest/many years out of office and Christie's many controversies/excessive brashness). He seems well-informed, well-spoken if not charismatic, and could present a clear vision for the nation. His major weakness in the general would be his lack of enthusiasm/charisma, but that might not be too big of a problem. Many voters loved that quality in Obama and felt like they didn't end up getting much substance out of him. Obama presented a clear personality contrast to Bush, and Portman would present a clear personality contrast to Obama.

Portman's weaknesses in a primary are different than those that Obama faced of course, but I don't think Portman would be completely doomed in a primary. His inability to stand out/distinguish himself in a crowded field would be just as problematic as his more obvious weakness- not being conservative enough for the primary electorate- but I think he could forge a path to victory.

[Free Bird]

With a good environment and Obama fatigue, I could potentially see something like this

[Vega]

lol @ winning Pennsylvania.

Not happening. If Dole, Bush Jr. twice, McCain and Romney couldn't win it, Portman sure as hell ain't winning it.

[Free Bird]

lol @ winning Pennsylvania.

Not happening. If Dole, Bush Jr. twice, McCain and Romney couldn't win it, Portman sure as hell ain't winning it.

But those were all neocons. Portman's pro-gay stance could give it a chance. I must also bring up that Bush 04 only narrowly lost it, and it is trending R in general.

[whanztastic]

At this point we know who is running, and Portman isn't doing any of the things a candidate does.

[Free Bird]

At this point we know who is running, and Portman isn't doing any of the things a candidate does.

Uh no. Nobody has confirmed, and plenty of people showing signs in the past have turned it down. Unexpected things can happen. So no we don't know. I highly doubt EVERYONE being speculated is running.

This thread is to discuss how Portman would do in the GE, not to speculate if we will run in general.

[henster]

So you think SoCons will turn out for a pro-gay marriage candidate? What happens in the South if it's between Clinton and Portman?

[Free Bird]

So you think SoCons will turn out for a pro-gay marriage candidate? What happens in the South if it's between Clinton and Portman?

Party loyalty in the south is more based on party in general and not one issue. If that weren't the case, Nunn and Carter would be cruising. Issues are a bit more important in the liberal states, hence why people like Foley have great chances in CT. This is enough of a thing that the non-landslides could maybe flip, hence PA and WI. Besides that, Portman is a devout Methodist, so he could relate there; though his MoV would certainly be smaller, they are so lopsided otherwise that he could still push by. The only one I see going against Portman because of MoV alone is NC, and even then he could appeal there in other ways.

Oh, and I said Generic D, NOT Red Heffer Clinton. I know it is hard to not talk about her since she is all you have, but she is preferably not welcome in this discussion.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

lol @ winning Pennsylvania.

Not happening. If Dole, Bush Jr. twice, McCain and Romney couldn't win it, Portman sure as hell ain't winning it.

But those were all neocons. Portman's pro-gay stance could give it a chance. I must also bring up that Bush 04 only narrowly lost it, and it is trending R in general.

Gay-Marriage isn't gonna win Pennsylvania for Portman.

[Free Bird]

lol @ winning Pennsylvania.

Not happening. If Dole, Bush Jr. twice, McCain and Romney couldn't win it, Portman sure as hell ain't winning it.

But those were all neocons. Portman's pro-gay stance could give it a chance. I must also bring up that Bush 04 only narrowly lost it, and it is trending R in general.

Gay-Marriage isn't gonna win Pennsylvania for Portman.

Thank you for the non-smug reply. What potentially could then? I'm actually curious now. Would you say PA is a "blue-dog" state of sorts where stuff like gay marriage don't matter?

[Rockefeller GOP]

He'd be a fantastic nominee.

[Free Bird]

He'd be a fantastic nominee.

My thinking is he could attract moderates like Rockefeller here to win and tighten up a couple northern states and swingers that tilt D, but his other more conservative ideas and overall party loyalty of that area maintain the south.

[Mr. Illini]

A fine nominee that I would at the very least listen to. I already don't like Hillary, so a candidate like Portman would maybe, just maybe, put my vote into play.

Hillary Clinton 291 / Rob Portman 247

[Free Bird]

A fine nominee that I would at the very least listen to. I already don't like Hillary, so a candidate like Portman would maybe, just maybe, put my vote into play.

Hillary Clinton 291 / Rob Portman 247

What about against a generic D without increased Bible Belt appeal? Maybe Biden. That's what my best case map was based on. I just find it hard to believe that a place like Missouri would flip against a relative conservative except for that one issue, but none of the other relatively comfortable Romney states would as well. NC I totally get the thought process.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Unless they're Dwight Eisenhower and have just won WW2, bland, uncharismatic white guys from the Midwest do not win presidential elections. Not in the TV era anyway. I mean...Gephardt, Glenn, both Bayhs, Pawlenty, Vilsack, Tommy Thompson, Mitch Daniels - it's a particular political archetype that pundits/nerds always overestimate, and the result is always the same.

So even though it's early, I feel pretty safe in writing off Portman, Walker, Thune, Pence - anybody from the bronze4141 school of candidate. Kasich I don't write off - he's not charismatic exactly, but has a little more likability and presence than the others. (And he doesn't have that dropped-on-his-head look like Walker.)

People that care enough about gay marriage to make it a decisive factor in their voting are either 1) social liberals unlikely to vote for any R or 2) social conservatives that won't like Portman's stance on it. He was also Bush's budget director, which gives Democrats an obvious line of attack, especially if the economy continues to improve.

Having said all that, there are several candidates worse than Portman. He'd presumably be favored in Ohio, which is a big plus. I just don't see him as particularly imposing.

[henster]

Pennsyltucky is basically won on social issues abortion, gay marriage etc. just like KY and WY if a Republican's margins in Pennsyltucky are poor then they don't win statewide.

[Vega]

bronze4141 school of candidate

His "school of candidate" is anybody who's holding elected office right now + talk radio personalities.

[Mr. Illini]

A fine nominee that I would at the very least listen to. I already don't like Hillary, so a candidate like Portman would maybe, just maybe, put my vote into play.

Hillary Clinton 291 / Rob Portman 247

What about against a generic D without increased Bible Belt appeal? Maybe Biden. That's what my best case map was based on. I just find it hard to believe that a place like Missouri would flip against a relative conservative except for that one issue, but none of the other relatively comfortable Romney states would as well. NC I totally get the thought process.

Against Generic D

Portman would still do weaker in the Upper South just because there are a number of ex-Democrats voting Republican currently on faith-based issues. If those are out the window, they may gravitate back, although not completely.

[TJ in Oregon]

Someday people might realize Portman is a hardline socon on everything except gay marriage instead of, for some bizarre reason, taking him to suddenly be the next Jon Huntsman as though gay marriage is the sole barometer of what constitutes the American political spectrum.

Anyway, Portman would be a formidable candidate if he were to win the nomination.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

bronze4141 school of candidate

His "school of candidate" is anybody who's holding elected office right now + talk radio personalities.

In terms of thread-starting, yes. But he's particularly fond of "soothing" Midwesterners.