Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States!
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Author Topic: Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States!  (Read 19579 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #100 on: September 27, 2014, 04:14:56 AM »

That's awesome, thank you! Cheesy I can't believe you managed to get rid of Staten Island! Both plans seem really good. I guess Democrats would choose to minimize risk and go with your second plan, a 17-1 map is nothing to complain about. Wink
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #101 on: September 27, 2014, 08:02:23 PM »

We already knew that Allegheny would be 6-1 Pub, but here's one pretty clean example of that.





With the RL Pennsylvania gerrymander ceding the Pittsburgh district to the Dems, and the historic Dem strength in Western PA (as well as the fact that McCain's win was not that gaudy), the Pittsburgh sink seems like an obvious play-it-safe survivor. Here it is made (and all the other Dem areas sunk) with no town splits, and very few county splits besides.  1/2, 3/4, and 6/7/8 are all whole-county groups.

District 1: Obama 42.6%.  State College is overwhelmed by south-central Pubs around Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Carlisle, etc. Safe R.
District 2: Obama 43.1%.  Johnstown, Altoona, lots of rural.  Safe R.
District 3: Obama 45.4%.  Sinking Erie properly did take some effort, especially with so few county splits.  This Northern Tier-esque monstrosity goes all the way to Williamsburg and the Alleghenies to its south.  Safe R.
District 4: Obama 44.6%.  There's some Dem towns here- Erie burbs, New Castle, Sharon, etc.  And there's also all of Butler County.  Safe R.
District 5: Obama 42.9%.  Westmoreland and north of Pittsburgh.  Safe R.
District 6: Obama 66.9%.  21% black.  The Burgh, and as many nearby Dems as can fit while keeping the lines nice.  Safe D.
District 7: Obama 43.9%.  And the Mon Valley Dems are swamped by Pubs in the South Hills and places east such as Somerset County. Safe R.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #102 on: September 28, 2014, 04:05:00 AM »

Wow, great map! Smiley
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #103 on: October 04, 2014, 06:52:53 PM »

brb making a national map
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muon2
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« Reply #104 on: October 05, 2014, 12:41:05 AM »

Here's a cute gerrymander of your lopped-off IllinoiS. I divided it into 6 CDs using whole counties and keeping all 6 CDs within 1500 (0.2%) of the quota. I assumed that the Pubs had control after 2010, but they were willing to take some risks to make a play for all 6 seats. So all 6 CDs here voted for Obama over McCain, but Obama never gets over 52% (53% of the two-party vote) and all have a R PVI.

When I calculated the 2012 results, the gamble worked. In 2012 the favorite son effect wears off, so in the first election with this map Romney wins all 6 CDs with at least 52% of the two-party vote. The PVIs are calculated with the 2008-12 numbers.



IS-01:R+3 (Blue, Rockford-LaSalle)
IS-02:R+3 (Green, Rock Island-Bloomington)
IS-03:R+3 (Purple, Peoria-Quincy)
IS-04:R+6 (Red, Champaign-Decatur)
IS-05:R+5 (Yellow, Springfield-Edwardsville)
IS-06:R+5 (Teal, Belleville-Carbondale)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #105 on: October 05, 2014, 04:18:44 AM »

Oh wow! 6 CDs that all went Obama->Romney? I didn't imagine this was possible.
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muon2
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« Reply #106 on: October 05, 2014, 07:09:11 AM »

Oh wow! 6 CDs that all went Obama->Romney? I didn't imagine this was possible.

The fun part was that I didn't look at 2012 results until the map was complete. I just spread the Obama '08 votes as evenly as I could among the CDs. I was pleasantly surprised that all 6 flipped.

The favorite son effect of Obama in IL was 3-5% in 2008. As an incumbent the favorite son effect was largely gone in 2012 except in Chicago. For that reason the numbers went back to their traditional values in 2012. It's a fact often overlooked when considering the PVI's of the current IL CDs.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #107 on: October 05, 2014, 03:56:30 PM »

National map so far:




Still working on New York. 

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muon2
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« Reply #108 on: October 05, 2014, 06:30:29 PM »

National map so far:




Still working on New York. 



So it appears you are mapping the 2008 vote. That makes my IL look like a Dem gerrymander when it is just the opposite. Wouldn't make more sense to shade the CDs by PVI?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #109 on: October 05, 2014, 07:59:53 PM »

National map so far:




Still working on New York. 



So it appears you are mapping the 2008 vote. That makes my IL look like a Dem gerrymander when it is just the opposite. Wouldn't make more sense to shade the CDs by PVI?

Sorry, it was the only election data available.  I'll see what I can do with PVI. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #110 on: October 06, 2014, 10:29:06 PM »



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muon2
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« Reply #111 on: October 06, 2014, 11:05:11 PM »


Smiley Smiley Smiley

I can convert PVIs if you have 2008 numbers for specific states.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #112 on: October 06, 2014, 11:22:33 PM »


That would be great! 

Just need:

I would expect very aggressive gerrymanders in Massachusetts and Maryland. With DC as part of MD, I don't Democrats would leave a single seat for Republicans. I wonder how aggressive they would be in your alternative NY. Democrats could easily take every seat.

I went ahead and tried the new Pennsylvania. With a breakdown like that, neither party would be getting a gerrymander through. More than likely, there'd be a stalemate and the map would go to the courts. So, here's my proposal:



I generally tried to keep counties and municipalities together, avoiding unnecessary splits for the most part. Each district tries to keep a basic core area except PA-11, which is pretty much the leftovers that doesn't really go anywhere. (FWIW, these districts could easily have names, as many other countries do.)

PA-01: (Obama 77.1%-22.1%, Dem 78.0%-22.0%) I admit I don't know much about the intricacies of Philadelphia, but I used Broad St as the dividing line between the two main districts in the city. This district takes in the areas east of it and moves up in the Northeast Philly. In terms of VAP, it is majority-minority with a 46.6% white plurality. Safe D
PA-02: (Obama 91.9%-7.7%, Dem 90.4%-9.6%) This district takes in all of Philadelphia west of Broad St. It has a 60.5% VAP black majority. Safe D
PA-03: (Obama 53.7%-45.2%, Dem 52.5%-47.5%) This is the Bucks County district (with some of Philly added for population). It should be a highly competitive district that would depend a lot on candidate quality and the national environment. To avoid too much speculation: Toss-Up
PA-04: (Obama 60.4%-38.8%, Dem 57.1%-42.9% This is the Montgomery County district (picking up the small remainder of Philadelphia). It may have once been a Republican stronghold, but that is certainly no longer the case in national politics. If Democrats lose this district, they are facing catastrophe. Safe D
PA-05: (Obama 59.0%-40.1%, Dem 55.6%-44.4%) This is the Delaware County district (about 80% of the district, with the remainder from Chester County). Joe Sestak could easily return to Congress in this district, which would be even friendly than his old district. Despite the fact that this district may have more registered Republicans than Democrats: Safe D (maybe Likely D)
PA-06: (Obama 54.2%-44.6%, GOP 50.0%-50.0%) This district spans all of Berks County, with good portions of Chester and MontCo (roughly 60-25-15). Despite voting decisively for Obama in 2008 and having an almost infinitesimal 269-vote Republican average edge, this has been a very tough district for Democrats. It may be very competitive, but I don't think it's a toss-up. Lean R (maybe even Likely R)
PA-07: (McCain 52.7%-46.4%, GOP 59.6%-40.4%) This is the Lancaster County district (about 75%, with the remaining 25% from Chester County). For some reason, Obama ran quite in this district in 2008. That is most definitely an anomaly though. It has the highest Republican average result, at nearly 60%. Safe R
PA-08: (McCain 51.9%-47.1%, GOP 57.3%-42.7%) The geography of the new state forces York and Dauphin Counties into one district. Democratic-leaning Dauphin County gets easily overtaken by strongly Republican York County (York outnumbers Dauphin by about a 5:3 margin). Obama ran relatively strong in this district in 2008, but that remains to be an anomaly just like PA-07. Safe R
PA-09: (Obama 56.6%-42.1%, Dem 54.6%-45.4%) This is the Lehigh Valley district (with all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties). On paper, this should be a Lean D district. However, Charlie Dent is a very strong incumbent. Even if everything went right, it's no better than a toss-up for Democrats. Until then: Lean R
PA-10: (Obama 56.5%-42.5%, Dem 55.1%-44.9%) This is the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre district, as Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties make up the bulk of this district. This is traditionally a heavily Democratic working-class district. As 2010 showed, it's not immune to waves. However, I would still rank it: Safe D
PA-11: (McCain 55.0%-43.65, GOP 57.6%-42.4%) This is pretty much the leftovers. It's a fairly rural district that doesn't really have any significant population centres. Additionally, there aren't really any areas of Democratic strength in the district, making it McCain's strongest district in the state. Blue Dog Tim Holden represented a good portion of this district, including all of his home Schuylkill County. The new areas are probably too much, so I would expect this district to go to Lou Barletta (as it includes his home of Hazleton). Safe R

With this map, Obama would've beaten McCain 8-3 in terms of Congressional districts. It's hard to say how 2012 would've turned out, as PA-03 and PA-06 would likely have been extremely tight. At best, Obama may have replicated his 8-3 margin. At worst, it could have been a narrower 6-5 Obama win.

As far as Congress goes, the current situation would be something like 5D-5R-1T. The problem for Democrats is only due in small part from the concentration of strength in Philadelphia. Republicans know how to run strong candidates in this new state (see: Dent, Charlie) and Democrats underperform compared to those at the top of the ticket (see: PA-06). Even a fair map like this in a neutral environment could yield a Republican-majority Congressional delegation in an otherwise Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, Obama himself has shown that Democrats can in fact easily win 8 out of 11 districts.

and

We already knew that Allegheny would be 6-1 Pub, but here's one pretty clean example of that.





With the RL Pennsylvania gerrymander ceding the Pittsburgh district to the Dems, and the historic Dem strength in Western PA (as well as the fact that McCain's win was not that gaudy), the Pittsburgh sink seems like an obvious play-it-safe survivor. Here it is made (and all the other Dem areas sunk) with no town splits, and very few county splits besides.  1/2, 3/4, and 6/7/8 are all whole-county groups.

District 1: Obama 42.6%.  State College is overwhelmed by south-central Pubs around Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Carlisle, etc. Safe R.
District 2: Obama 43.1%.  Johnstown, Altoona, lots of rural.  Safe R.
District 3: Obama 45.4%.  Sinking Erie properly did take some effort, especially with so few county splits.  This Northern Tier-esque monstrosity goes all the way to Williamsburg and the Alleghenies to its south.  Safe R.
District 4: Obama 44.6%.  There's some Dem towns here- Erie burbs, New Castle, Sharon, etc.  And there's also all of Butler County.  Safe R.
District 5: Obama 42.9%.  Westmoreland and north of Pittsburgh.  Safe R.
District 6: Obama 66.9%.  21% black.  The Burgh, and as many nearby Dems as can fit while keeping the lines nice.  Safe D.
District 7: Obama 43.9%.  And the Mon Valley Dems are swamped by Pubs in the South Hills and places east such as Somerset County. Safe R.
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muon2
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« Reply #113 on: October 07, 2014, 07:06:52 AM »

Just to make it simpler, here's what you need to know about each State for redistricting:

State# CDs (2010)GovernorLegislatureGerrymander
New England5DemDemUnlikely
Massachusetts11DemDemLikely
New York18 or 19DemDemPossible
Adirondack9RepRepLikely
Pennsylvania11DemRep or SplitUnlikely
Allegheny7RepRepVery likely
Maryland10DemDemVery likely
North Florida11RepRepVery likely
South Florida16DemRepUnlikely
Texas12RepRepLikely
Rio Grande11RepDemUnlikely
Jefferson12 or 13RepRepLikely

Obviously I guessed that you'd have your new IllinoiS a Pub gerrymander, since it wasn't listed here. I'd also assume that CHicago is a Dem gerry. Did you intend for the revisions to IndIana, MichiGan, and WiSconsin to follow RL 2010?
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muon2
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« Reply #114 on: October 07, 2014, 08:51:04 AM »

I would expect very aggressive gerrymanders in Massachusetts and Maryland. With DC as part of MD, I don't Democrats would leave a single seat for Republicans. I wonder how aggressive they would be in your alternative NY. Democrats could easily take every seat.

I went ahead and tried the new Pennsylvania. With a breakdown like that, neither party would be getting a gerrymander through. More than likely, there'd be a stalemate and the map would go to the courts. So, here's my proposal:



I generally tried to keep counties and municipalities together, avoiding unnecessary splits for the most part. Each district tries to keep a basic core area except PA-11, which is pretty much the leftovers that doesn't really go anywhere. (FWIW, these districts could easily have names, as many other countries do.)

PA-01: (Obama 77.1%-22.1%, Dem 78.0%-22.0%) I admit I don't know much about the intricacies of Philadelphia, but I used Broad St as the dividing line between the two main districts in the city. This district takes in the areas east of it and moves up in the Northeast Philly. In terms of VAP, it is majority-minority with a 46.6% white plurality. Safe D
PA-02: (Obama 91.9%-7.7%, Dem 90.4%-9.6%) This district takes in all of Philadelphia west of Broad St. It has a 60.5% VAP black majority. Safe D
PA-03: (Obama 53.7%-45.2%, Dem 52.5%-47.5%) This is the Bucks County district (with some of Philly added for population). It should be a highly competitive district that would depend a lot on candidate quality and the national environment. To avoid too much speculation: Toss-Up
PA-04: (Obama 60.4%-38.8%, Dem 57.1%-42.9% This is the Montgomery County district (picking up the small remainder of Philadelphia). It may have once been a Republican stronghold, but that is certainly no longer the case in national politics. If Democrats lose this district, they are facing catastrophe. Safe D
PA-05: (Obama 59.0%-40.1%, Dem 55.6%-44.4%) This is the Delaware County district (about 80% of the district, with the remainder from Chester County). Joe Sestak could easily return to Congress in this district, which would be even friendly than his old district. Despite the fact that this district may have more registered Republicans than Democrats: Safe D (maybe Likely D)
PA-06: (Obama 54.2%-44.6%, GOP 50.0%-50.0%) This district spans all of Berks County, with good portions of Chester and MontCo (roughly 60-25-15). Despite voting decisively for Obama in 2008 and having an almost infinitesimal 269-vote Republican average edge, this has been a very tough district for Democrats. It may be very competitive, but I don't think it's a toss-up. Lean R (maybe even Likely R)
PA-07: (McCain 52.7%-46.4%, GOP 59.6%-40.4%) This is the Lancaster County district (about 75%, with the remaining 25% from Chester County). For some reason, Obama ran quite in this district in 2008. That is most definitely an anomaly though. It has the highest Republican average result, at nearly 60%. Safe R
PA-08: (McCain 51.9%-47.1%, GOP 57.3%-42.7%) The geography of the new state forces York and Dauphin Counties into one district. Democratic-leaning Dauphin County gets easily overtaken by strongly Republican York County (York outnumbers Dauphin by about a 5:3 margin). Obama ran relatively strong in this district in 2008, but that remains to be an anomaly just like PA-07. Safe R
PA-09: (Obama 56.6%-42.1%, Dem 54.6%-45.4%) This is the Lehigh Valley district (with all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties). On paper, this should be a Lean D district. However, Charlie Dent is a very strong incumbent. Even if everything went right, it's no better than a toss-up for Democrats. Until then: Lean R
PA-10: (Obama 56.5%-42.5%, Dem 55.1%-44.9%) This is the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre district, as Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties make up the bulk of this district. This is traditionally a heavily Democratic working-class district. As 2010 showed, it's not immune to waves. However, I would still rank it: Safe D
PA-11: (McCain 55.0%-43.65, GOP 57.6%-42.4%) This is pretty much the leftovers. It's a fairly rural district that doesn't really have any significant population centres. Additionally, there aren't really any areas of Democratic strength in the district, making it McCain's strongest district in the state. Blue Dog Tim Holden represented a good portion of this district, including all of his home Schuylkill County. The new areas are probably too much, so I would expect this district to go to Lou Barletta (as it includes his home of Hazleton). Safe R

With this map, Obama would've beaten McCain 8-3 in terms of Congressional districts. It's hard to say how 2012 would've turned out, as PA-03 and PA-06 would likely have been extremely tight. At best, Obama may have replicated his 8-3 margin. At worst, it could have been a narrower 6-5 Obama win.

As far as Congress goes, the current situation would be something like 5D-5R-1T. The problem for Democrats is only due in small part from the concentration of strength in Philadelphia. Republicans know how to run strong candidates in this new state (see: Dent, Charlie) and Democrats underperform compared to those at the top of the ticket (see: PA-06). Even a fair map like this in a neutral environment could yield a Republican-majority Congressional delegation in an otherwise Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, Obama himself has shown that Democrats can in fact easily win 8 out of 11 districts.

The election returns listed above are for 2008. To get a better measure of the PVI I calculated the PVI of the major counties in each CD using both 2008 and 2012. Then I compared that to the result one would get by using 2008 alone. That gave me an offset for each district.

The offsets are somewhat important here. In general the suburbs and exurbs swung more Pub than the nation as a whole by about 2%. That shifts most of the district PVIs by about 1 point to the Pub side. OTOH urban cores like Philly, parts of Delco and Scranton shifted about 4% more Dem than the nation as a whole, so those CDs get 1-2 points more Dem in their PVI. Overall those results point to increasing polarization between 2008 and 2012.

Here are the PVIs:
PN-01 D+26
PN-02 D+41
PN-03 R+0
PN-04 D+7
PN-05 D+7
PN-06 R+1
PN-07 R+8
PN-08 R+7
PN-09 D+3
PN-10 D+4
PN-11 R+10

I would color D+1 to R+1 as a purple tossup
X+2 to X+5 as a competitive CD
X+6 or more as a solid CD (and use 5 point color increments from there)
So PN has 4D, 2d, 2e, 3R, and as lefty notes above the two e and the Lehigh d CDs are probably held by Pub incumbents.
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« Reply #115 on: October 07, 2014, 10:44:39 AM »

We already knew that Allegheny would be 6-1 Pub, but here's one pretty clean example of that.





With the RL Pennsylvania gerrymander ceding the Pittsburgh district to the Dems, and the historic Dem strength in Western PA (as well as the fact that McCain's win was not that gaudy), the Pittsburgh sink seems like an obvious play-it-safe survivor. Here it is made (and all the other Dem areas sunk) with no town splits, and very few county splits besides.  1/2, 3/4, and 6/7/8 are all whole-county groups.

District 1: Obama 42.6%.  State College is overwhelmed by south-central Pubs around Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Carlisle, etc. Safe R.
District 2: Obama 43.1%.  Johnstown, Altoona, lots of rural.  Safe R.
District 3: Obama 45.4%.  Sinking Erie properly did take some effort, especially with so few county splits.  This Northern Tier-esque monstrosity goes all the way to Williamsburg and the Alleghenies to its south.  Safe R.
District 4: Obama 44.6%.  There's some Dem towns here- Erie burbs, New Castle, Sharon, etc.  And there's also all of Butler County.  Safe R.
District 5: Obama 42.9%.  Westmoreland and north of Pittsburgh.  Safe R.
District 6: Obama 66.9%.  21% black.  The Burgh, and as many nearby Dems as can fit while keeping the lines nice.  Safe D.
District 7: Obama 43.9%.  And the Mon Valley Dems are swamped by Pubs in the South Hills and places east such as Somerset County. Safe R.

I found the same pattern in the west as in eastern PA. The urban cores moved more Dem than the nation (ie Obama held his numbers as Romney improved on McCain), and the suburban and rural areas more more Pub than the nation as a whole. With those adjustments I would estimate the following PVIs:

AG-01 R+11
AG-02 R+11
AG-03 R+8
AG-04 R+9
AG-05 R+11
AG-06 D+15
AG-07 R+10

As train expected all the districts are solid for their respective parties.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #116 on: October 07, 2014, 10:53:54 AM »

Just to make it simpler, here's what you need to know about each State for redistricting:

State# CDs (2010)GovernorLegislatureGerrymander
New England5DemDemUnlikely
Massachusetts11DemDemLikely
New York18 or 19DemDemPossible
Adirondack9RepRepLikely
Pennsylvania11DemRep or SplitUnlikely
Allegheny7RepRepVery likely
Maryland10DemDemVery likely
North Florida11RepRepVery likely
South Florida16DemRepUnlikely
Texas12RepRepLikely
Rio Grande11RepDemUnlikely
Jefferson12 or 13RepRepLikely

Obviously I guessed that you'd have your new IllinoiS a Pub gerrymander, since it wasn't listed here. I'd also assume that CHicago is a Dem gerry. Did you intend for the revisions to IndIana, MichiGan, and WiSconsin to follow RL 2010?

I'm too busy right now to update this table for all the States I've covered so far, but here's the complete (and 100% accurate) data for the 2010 apportionment among the new States:

StatePopulationCDs
California del Sur21,146,84730
New York13,038,82618
South Florida11,039,03516
Georgia9,687,65314
Chicago9,686,02114
Michigan9,572,27914
North Carolina9,535,48313
Pacific8,906,50413
Jefferson8,796,33912
New Jersey8,791,89412
Texas8,599,82712
Washington8,573,43212
Virginia8,001,02411
Pennsylvania7,773,45111
North Florida7,762,27511
Rio Grande7,749,39511
Massachusetts7,600,19611
Maryland7,273,20910
California7,166,68210
Ohio6,852,20110
Arizona6,392,0179
Tennessee6,346,1059
Adirondack6,339,2769
Missouri5,988,9278
Wisconsin5,831,9218
Indiana5,664,2658
Minnesota5,303,9257
Colorado5,029,1967
Allegheny4,928,9287
Alabama4,779,7367
Erie4,684,3037
South Carolina4,625,3647
Louisiana4,533,3726
Kentucky4,339,3676
Illinois4,130,5746
Oklahoma3,751,3515
Connecticut3,574,0975
Oregon3,549,7645
New England3,270,5725
Iowa3,046,3554
Lincoln3,039,8124
Mississipi2,967,2974
Arkansas2,915,9184
Kansas2,853,1184
Utah2,763,8854
Nevada2,734,4744
New Mexico2,059,1793
West Virginia1,852,9943
Nebraska1,826,3413
Hawaii1,360,3012
Alaska710,2311

Regarding Midwestern States, IN, MI and WI would be like IRL in terms of partisan control, OH and IL would probably be in Republican hands while ER and CH are in Democratic hands.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #117 on: October 10, 2014, 11:44:41 AM »

Updated table:

State# CDs (2010)GovernorLegislatureGerrymander
New England5DemDemUnlikely
Massachusetts11DemDemLikely
New York18DemDemPossible
Adirondack9RepRepLikely
Pennsylvania11DemRep or SplitUnlikely
Allegheny7RepRepVery likely
Maryland10DemDemVery likely
North Florida11RepRepVery likely
South Florida16DemRepUnlikely
Texas12RepRepLikely
Rio Grande11RepDemUnlikely
Jefferson12RepRepLikely
Erie7DemDemLikely
Ohio10RepRepVery Likely
Indiana8RepRepPossible
Chicago14DemDemLikely
Illinois6RepRepLikely
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #118 on: February 14, 2015, 06:22:50 AM »

Bump! Smiley

Anyone wants to work on the latest States I've described, like California?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #119 on: August 25, 2015, 05:06:49 PM »

Re-bump now that the project is close to an end, and the 113th House composition is my upcoming step.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #120 on: August 27, 2015, 06:21:42 AM »

Nobody? Sad
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #121 on: August 27, 2015, 10:53:51 AM »

I can knock a couple of them out tonight maybe.
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