Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States!

[Cranberry]

Tried myself with a state, hope it's not an entire disaster

Rio Grande

With Legislature and Governor's Mansion in different hands, it will likely come to an agreement that will try to secure seats for one or another party. However, both the geographical distribution of voters and a likely strong democratic majority in both chambers will favour the Democrats, leading to the following proposal:

RG-01: (Obama: 65,7%-34,3%; Dem: 62,2%-37,8%) (Hisp VAP - 78,1%; SSRV - 66.2%)
The district containing all of El Paso and some parts of exurban El Paso County is as safe Democratic as it gets. More than two-thirds Hispanic, the district is basically the old 16th CD. Safe Dem MM

RG-02: (Obama: 55,0%-45,0%; Dem: 55,7%-45,3%) (75,6% / 64,8%)
Stretching from remaining parts of El Paso County until Laredo and the San Antonio Metro, the district is a more Democratic version of the old 23rd, but morphing into a fairly democratic one, likely only competetive in wave elections. Likely Dem MM

RG-03: (McCain: 60,9%-31,1%; GOP: 65,4%-34,6%) (17,3% / 10,4%)
Combining the areas to the north of both San Antonio and Austin, and taking a small portion of suburban Williamson County, Rio Grande's 3rd district is a natural stronghold for the GOP. Safe GOP

RG-04: (Obama: 61,8%-38,2%; Dem: 54,7%-45,3%) (37,2% / 19,7%)
This district encompasses Austin and Williamson County southeast of I-35. While Obama surely overperformed there in 2008, the district nevertheless is moving rapidly towards the Democrats, albeit partisan numbers are a little less democratic. Safe Dem

RG-05: (Obama: 58,9%-41,1%; Dem: 52,3%-47,7%) (20,9% / 13,0%)
Austin west of I-35 and Hays County. The less Democratic part of the city, nevertheless leans towards that party. Likely Dem

RG-06: (McCain: 64,0%-36,0%; GOP: 70,1%-29,9%) (31,1% / 21,4%)
The district inbetween San Antonio and Austin, taking conservative suburban areas from the first, is the most Republican district in the state. Safe GOP

RG-07: (Obama: 58,0%-42,0%; Dem: 53,9%-46,1%) (63,4% / 53,1%)
The greatest part of San Antonio, about everything west of I-35. Again did Obama overperform here, yet the district is sustainably Democratic, so just in play for the GOP in wave years. Likely Dem MM

RG-08: (McCain: 59,2%-40,8%; GOP: 56,6%-43,4%) (43,6% / 35,6%)
The east of the state, from the southernmost parts of the Austin Metro down to the Gulf Coast and until Corpus Christi. The least Republican of the three GOP districts, yet still far away from being in play for the Democrats. Safe GOP

RG-09: (Obama: 57,2%-42,8%; Dem: 56,6%-43,3%) (59,2% / 49,2%)
This is the district containing south-east San Antonio, and down the San Antonio River Valley until before Corpus Christi. Safe Dem MM

RG-10: (Obama: 66,7%-33,3%; Dem: 66,8%-33,2% ) (86,1% / 78,5%)
Basically the leftovers south of Laredo and Corpus Christi, this heavily Hispanic area is certainly one of the most democratic areas in the country. Overall the most Democratic district in Rio Grande. Safe Dem MM

RG-11: (Obama: 67,9%-32,1%; Dem: 65,5%-34,5%) (86,9% / 78,0%)
This district encompasses Cameron County and some areas of Hidalgo County along the river, including McAllen. THis was Obama's strongest district in 2008. Safe Dem MM


Under normal circumstances one could except a 8D-3R delegation. In wave years, the GOP could possibly win the 5th and 7th district, maybe also the 2nd, resulting to a maximum 6R-5D map. The 3 GOP and 5 Democratic seats however are uncontestable.

[Cranberry]

There are 6 Hispanic Minority Majority districts under my plan, 5 if we even just count the SSRV, so it should be very consistent with the VRA. That's quite funny considering I completely forgot about it and didn't draw my districts with that intent
Anyways, I added the numbers to the districts.

As I look at TX more closely, I'm not sure there would be a Dem gerrymander. Obama got 53.2% of the two party vote there in 2008, which is fractionally less than the 53.7% he got nationwide. The DRA election average gives the Dems 49.96% of the vote, so RG would be a very swingy state. Since 2010 was a GOP wave, it's likely that the Pubs would hold at least the Gov or one chamber of the legislature, so it is highly unlikely that the Dems get their best map. If no compromise is reached, the large Latino population makes a court-ordered map a strong possibility.

I modelled the districts under Antonio's "orders" - Governor a Republican, both chambers Democratic majority. Given that constellation, I find it highly likely to come to a incumbent-projection, little competition map, which this map is. I don't think the Republicans would have captured a chamber even in 2010, given that South Texas is basically the opposite of the rest of the nation when it comes to electoral geopgraphy - Democrats are distributed over a far larger area than Republicans, and also strong in rural areas.

[Cranberry]

Austin is quite a bit of a Demmander. By giving the most conservative parts of its suburbs to the 3rd district, the 4th and 5th both take up enough of the inner city to keep both districts relatively safe Democratic, but in wafe years. Your splitting of the area would likely result in the 3rd district compeletly getting out of the suburbs, and just taking in the exurbs, becoming a tad less republican that way, while the inner city district and the suburbs district would likely be safe dem or safe rep, respectively. So that's basically where I got the additional Democratic seat from... A Dem legislature would prefer my proposal (2D-1R) over 2R-1D, naturally.

Thanks Antonio
Might be that I make Jefferson and Texas too - I just love the electoral geography of OTL Texas