Draw the Congressional Districts of the Alternate States!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I really, really wish Dave's Redistricting App could handle more than one state at a time. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Erie:



CD-1: 60.5%-37.4% Obama (Safe D)

CD-2: 52%-46.2% McCain (Likely/safe R)

CD-3: 57.6%-40.8% Obama (Safe D)

CD-4: 82.3%-16.9% Obama (Safe D)

CD-5: 58.3%-40.2% Obama (Safe D)

CD-6: 50.4%-48.2% Obama (Tilt/lean R)

CD-7: 59.8%-38.1% Obama (Safe D)

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Erie:



CD-1: 60.5%-37.4% Obama (Safe D)

CD-2: 52%-46.2% McCain (Likely/safe R)

CD-3: 57.6%-40.8% Obama (Safe D)

CD-4: 82.3%-16.9% Obama (Safe D)

CD-5: 58.3%-40.2% Obama (Safe D)

CD-6: 50.4%-48.2% Obama (Tilt/lean R)

CD-7: 59.8%-38.1% Obama (Safe D)

NE OH has historically maintained a VRA black-majority seat. Currently that involves a Cuyahoga-Summit link. There was agreement during redistricting that civil rights groups could accept a plurality black district (about 47% BVAP) if it was within Cuyahoga. In either case it requires a chop of Cleveland, though with the smaller pop districts here, you should be able to get a 50+ CD inside of Cuyahoga.

Ahh okay, thanks.  I'll get back to the drawing board.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Made the fourth 52.3% black, to cover historical standards. 



New districts:

CD-4: 84%-15.1% Obama (Safe D)

CD-6: 49.6-49% McCain (Lean/likely R)


Those were the only districts I had to change, btw. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Election shades:

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Election shades:

But wouldn't the Dems gerrymander Erie so that there was just one safe R seat, and all others lean or safe D?

Perhaps in this alternate reality, the districts are drawn by a bi-partisan panel instead of by the legislature.     

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Election shades:

But wouldn't the Dems gerrymander Erie so that there was just one safe R seat, and all others lean or safe D?

Perhaps in this alternate reality, the districts are drawn by a bi-partisan panel instead of by the legislature.     

Actually, my goal for this project was to assume that everything was exactly like real life except for the States. So yes, a Dem gerrymander is probably more likely.

Darn!  Back to the app! 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I hope a 49.2% BVAP will do!



CD-1: 60.5%-37.9% Obama (Safe D)

CD-2: 53.5%-44.9% McCain (Safe R)

CD-3: 56.5%-42% Obama (Safe D)

CD-4: 83.9%-15.2% Obama (Safe D)

CD-5: 56.8%-41.7% Obama (Safe D)

CD-6: 56.5%-41.9% Obama (Safe D)

CD-7: 56.4%-41.6% Obama (Safe D)

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I hope a 49.2% BVAP will do!



CD-1: 60.5%-37.9% Obama (Safe D)

CD-2: 53.5%-44.9% McCain (Safe R)

CD-3: 56.5%-42% Obama (Safe likely D)

CD-4: 83.9%-15.2% Obama (Safe D)

CD-5: 56.8%-41.7% Obama (Safe likely D)

CD-6: 56.5%-41.9% Obama (Safe likely D)

CD-7: 56.4%-41.6% Obama (Safe likely D)

Now you're thinking like an evil gerrymanderer!

Only CDs 1 and 4 are safe D. CDs 3,5,6, and 7 are all D+4 based on the 2008 election. Those would be normally classified as likely D, as I have edited above.

For the record, here was my gerrymander. I chose to make the Parma-Mentor CD slightly weaker, to a D+3, but I boosted the Akron and Youngstown CDs to D+5 and D+7.



ER-1: 59.2%-38.2% Pres'08; D+7; Uncompetitive D
ER-2: 56.9%-41.5% Pres'08; D+4; Competitive D
ER-3: (48.5% BVAP) 83.1%-16.0% Pres'08; D+30; Uncompetitive D
ER-4: 56.0%-42.6% Pres'08; D+3; Competitive D
ER-5: 43.5%-55.0% Pres'08; R+10; Uncompetitive R
ER-6: 57.4%-41.0% Pres'08; D+5; Competitive D
ER-7: 59.8%-38.0% Pres'08; D+7; Uncompetitive D

Very nice!  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Excellent work! 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

brb making a national map

[Fuzzybigfoot]

National map so far:




Still working on New York. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

National map so far:




Still working on New York. 

So it appears you are mapping the 2008 vote. That makes my IL look like a Dem gerrymander when it is just the opposite. Wouldn't make more sense to shade the CDs by PVI?

Sorry, it was the only election data available.  I'll see what I can do with PVI. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I can convert PVIs if you have 2008 numbers for specific states.

That would be great! 

Just need:

I would expect very aggressive gerrymanders in Massachusetts and Maryland. With DC as part of MD, I don't Democrats would leave a single seat for Republicans. I wonder how aggressive they would be in your alternative NY. Democrats could easily take every seat.

I went ahead and tried the new Pennsylvania. With a breakdown like that, neither party would be getting a gerrymander through. More than likely, there'd be a stalemate and the map would go to the courts. So, here's my proposal:



I generally tried to keep counties and municipalities together, avoiding unnecessary splits for the most part. Each district tries to keep a basic core area except PA-11, which is pretty much the leftovers that doesn't really go anywhere. (FWIW, these districts could easily have names, as many other countries do.)

PA-01: (Obama 77.1%-22.1%, Dem 78.0%-22.0%) I admit I don't know much about the intricacies of Philadelphia, but I used Broad St as the dividing line between the two main districts in the city. This district takes in the areas east of it and moves up in the Northeast Philly. In terms of VAP, it is majority-minority with a 46.6% white plurality. Safe D
PA-02: (Obama 91.9%-7.7%, Dem 90.4%-9.6%) This district takes in all of Philadelphia west of Broad St. It has a 60.5% VAP black majority. Safe D
PA-03: (Obama 53.7%-45.2%, Dem 52.5%-47.5%) This is the Bucks County district (with some of Philly added for population). It should be a highly competitive district that would depend a lot on candidate quality and the national environment. To avoid too much speculation: Toss-Up
PA-04: (Obama 60.4%-38.8%, Dem 57.1%-42.9% This is the Montgomery County district (picking up the small remainder of Philadelphia). It may have once been a Republican stronghold, but that is certainly no longer the case in national politics. If Democrats lose this district, they are facing catastrophe. Safe D
PA-05: (Obama 59.0%-40.1%, Dem 55.6%-44.4%) This is the Delaware County district (about 80% of the district, with the remainder from Chester County). Joe Sestak could easily return to Congress in this district, which would be even friendly than his old district. Despite the fact that this district may have more registered Republicans than Democrats: Safe D (maybe Likely D)
PA-06: (Obama 54.2%-44.6%, GOP 50.0%-50.0%) This district spans all of Berks County, with good portions of Chester and MontCo (roughly 60-25-15). Despite voting decisively for Obama in 2008 and having an almost infinitesimal 269-vote Republican average edge, this has been a very tough district for Democrats. It may be very competitive, but I don't think it's a toss-up. Lean R (maybe even Likely R)
PA-07: (McCain 52.7%-46.4%, GOP 59.6%-40.4%) This is the Lancaster County district (about 75%, with the remaining 25% from Chester County). For some reason, Obama ran quite in this district in 2008. That is most definitely an anomaly though. It has the highest Republican average result, at nearly 60%. Safe R
PA-08: (McCain 51.9%-47.1%, GOP 57.3%-42.7%) The geography of the new state forces York and Dauphin Counties into one district. Democratic-leaning Dauphin County gets easily overtaken by strongly Republican York County (York outnumbers Dauphin by about a 5:3 margin). Obama ran relatively strong in this district in 2008, but that remains to be an anomaly just like PA-07. Safe R
PA-09: (Obama 56.6%-42.1%, Dem 54.6%-45.4%) This is the Lehigh Valley district (with all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties). On paper, this should be a Lean D district. However, Charlie Dent is a very strong incumbent. Even if everything went right, it's no better than a toss-up for Democrats. Until then: Lean R
PA-10: (Obama 56.5%-42.5%, Dem 55.1%-44.9%) This is the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre district, as Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties make up the bulk of this district. This is traditionally a heavily Democratic working-class district. As 2010 showed, it's not immune to waves. However, I would still rank it: Safe D
PA-11: (McCain 55.0%-43.65, GOP 57.6%-42.4%) This is pretty much the leftovers. It's a fairly rural district that doesn't really have any significant population centres. Additionally, there aren't really any areas of Democratic strength in the district, making it McCain's strongest district in the state. Blue Dog Tim Holden represented a good portion of this district, including all of his home Schuylkill County. The new areas are probably too much, so I would expect this district to go to Lou Barletta (as it includes his home of Hazleton). Safe R

With this map, Obama would've beaten McCain 8-3 in terms of Congressional districts. It's hard to say how 2012 would've turned out, as PA-03 and PA-06 would likely have been extremely tight. At best, Obama may have replicated his 8-3 margin. At worst, it could have been a narrower 6-5 Obama win.

As far as Congress goes, the current situation would be something like 5D-5R-1T. The problem for Democrats is only due in small part from the concentration of strength in Philadelphia. Republicans know how to run strong candidates in this new state (see: Dent, Charlie) and Democrats underperform compared to those at the top of the ticket (see: PA-06). Even a fair map like this in a neutral environment could yield a Republican-majority Congressional delegation in an otherwise Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, Obama himself has shown that Democrats can in fact easily win 8 out of 11 districts.

and

We already knew that Allegheny would be 6-1 Pub, but here's one pretty clean example of that.





With the RL Pennsylvania gerrymander ceding the Pittsburgh district to the Dems, and the historic Dem strength in Western PA (as well as the fact that McCain's win was not that gaudy), the Pittsburgh sink seems like an obvious play-it-safe survivor. Here it is made (and all the other Dem areas sunk) with no town splits, and very few county splits besides.  1/2, 3/4, and 6/7/8 are all whole-county groups.

District 1: Obama 42.6%.  State College is overwhelmed by south-central Pubs around Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Carlisle, etc. Safe R.
District 2: Obama 43.1%.  Johnstown, Altoona, lots of rural.  Safe R.
District 3: Obama 45.4%.  Sinking Erie properly did take some effort, especially with so few county splits.  This Northern Tier-esque monstrosity goes all the way to Williamsburg and the Alleghenies to its south.  Safe R.
District 4: Obama 44.6%.  There's some Dem towns here- Erie burbs, New Castle, Sharon, etc.  And there's also all of Butler County.  Safe R.
District 5: Obama 42.9%.  Westmoreland and north of Pittsburgh.  Safe R.
District 6: Obama 66.9%.  21% black.  The Burgh, and as many nearby Dems as can fit while keeping the lines nice.  Safe D.
District 7: Obama 43.9%.  And the Mon Valley Dems are swamped by Pubs in the South Hills and places east such as Somerset County. Safe R.