Hillary vs. Rand - national demographics

[Phony Moderate]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites
African-Americans
Hispanics
Asians
Men
Women
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
Liberals
Moderates
Conservatives

[Phony Moderate]

Whites - 55-43 Rand
African-Americans - 92-7 Hillary
Hispanics - 70-28 Hillary
Asians - 68-30 Hillary
Men - 52-47 Rand
Women - 62-37 Hillary
18-29 - 57-41 Hillary
30-44 - 56-43 Hillary
45-59 - 54-45 Hillary
60+ - 52-46 Hillary
Liberals - 88-10 Hillary
Moderates - 62-36 Hillary
Conservatives - 87-12 Rand

A national landslide for Hillary with something like 36% of the white male vote. Lol.

[henster]

Whites - 55 - 43 Rand
African-Americans - 96 - 3 Hillary
Hispanics - 76- 22 Hillary
Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary
Men - 44 - 51 Rand
Women - 59 - 39 Hillary
18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary
30-44 - 51 - 47 Hillary
45-59 - 50 - 47 Hillary
60+ - 49 - 46 Hillary
Liberals - 94 - 4 Hillary
Moderates - 63 - 34 Hillary
Conservatives - 86 - 12 Rand

[JRP1994]

Whites - 55 - 43 Rand
African-Americans - 96 - 3 Hillary
Hispanics - 76- 22 Hillary
Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary
Men - 44 - 51 Rand
Women - 59 - 39 Hillary
18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary
30-44 - 51 - 47 Hillary
45-59 - 50 - 47 Hillary
60+ - 49 - 46 Hillary
Liberals - 94 - 4 Hillary
Moderates - 63 - 34 Hillary
Conservatives - 86 - 12 Hillary

[RR1997]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

[henster]

Rand is cracking at least 15% of the AA vote. Millenials are not going to vote Hilary over Rand. Moderates will be split between both

A guy who had previously stated he had issues with the Civil Rights Act is not getting anywhere near 15% of the AA. And I don't even believe a Republican has gotten more than 11% of the AA vote in 20 years.

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote

Where do you find that polling?

[Never]

Whites: 55/43 Rand
African-Americans: 92/7 Hillary
Hispanics: 70/28 Hillary
Asians: 69/30 Hillary
Men: 53/44 Rand
Women: 58/41 Hillary
18-29: 57/39 Hillary
30-44: 52/46 Hillary
45-59: 49/49 Tie
60+: 55/44 Rand
Liberals: 89/8 Hilary
Moderates: 60/37 Hillary
Conservatives: 85/14 Rand

[RR1997]

Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote

Where do you find that polling?

Source

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Phony Moderate]

Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote

Where do you find that polling?

Source

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The turnout figures among those groups would be more interesting...

[henster]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

[RR1997]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

There is no way Asian Americans would ever vote that overwhelmingly Democratic. The best I could see Clinton doing with the Asian vote is 77-21.

[NHLiberal]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Here's the thing. Actions speak louder than words. So the guy who said he had issues with the Civil Rights Act and voted against student loan relief isn't going to win over large amounts of African Americans and students just because he talks to them more than other members of his party. I think he'll make inroads with youth for sure, but it won't be as big as you make it sound. And they definitely wouldn't be anywhere near big enough to counteract Hillary's inroads with hawks.

Note that I'm not saying Rand couldn't beat Hillary, because he definitely could and is better suited to do it than most Republicans; I'm just saying that even if he does win, you won't see huge trends relative to what a standard Republican victory would look like.

[Deus Naturae]

Here's the thing. Actions speak louder than words. So the guy who said he had issues with the Civil Rights Act and voted against student loan relief isn't going to win over large amounts of African Americans and students just because he talks to them more than other members of his party. I think he'll make inroads with youth for sure, but it won't be as big as you make it sound. And they definitely wouldn't be anywhere near big enough to counteract Hillary's inroads with hawks.

Note that I'm not saying Rand couldn't beat Hillary, because he definitely could and is better suited to do it than most Republicans; I'm just saying that even if he does win, you won't see huge trends relative to what a standard Republican victory would look like.

Maybe, but Rand would at least do better against Hillary with youngs than Romney against Obama, and he certainly wouldn't do 10 points worse than Romney with Asians.

[henster]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

There is no way Asian Americans would ever vote that overwhelmingly Democratic. The best I could see Clinton doing with the Asian vote is 77-21.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

[Deus Naturae]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

Alright? I think we're all aware that Obama won Asians. Doesn't mean that Clinton will gain ten points with that demographic.

[henster]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

Alright? I think we're all aware that Obama won Asians. Doesn't mean that Clinton will gain ten points with that demographic.

Obama won Asians 62-35 in 2008 and won them 73-27 in 2012 so Asians shifted 11 points to Obama in four years so it's not out of the question for it to trend even further to the left.

[BlueSwan]

Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote

Where do you find that polling?

Source

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's very interesting. There may indeed be something to the hypotheses discussed in that article.

There is also another explanation however. The general narrative after the economic crisis has been one of austerity, of the importance of controlling spending. This is a narrative that benefits conservatives. I see it in Denmark, where I am a high school teachers. The students I've had over the last few years have been far more conservative than they were before the financial crisis, where they tended to be decidedly left wing.

The crisis in the 30's was different, because the narrative back then focused on the importance of growth and jobs and poverty, not on controlling spending. A narrative that obviously benefits Democrats in America and social democrats in Europe.

Economics aside, I have to say that I believe the cultural war very significantly favours democrats amongst young people. Young people are more accepting of homosexuals, less inclined to hold racist views, less religious, etc than older voters. Now, these young people might not only be attracted to liberalism but also to libertarianism, which might explain why the faux liberatarian candidate Rand Paul would do so well with younger voters.

Either way, it will certainly be very interesting to see how young people vote in 2016 where the entire age group of 18-26 will have turned 18 under the Obama presidency.

[RR1997]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

Alright? I think we're all aware that Obama won Asians. Doesn't mean that Clinton will gain ten points with that demographic.

Obama won Asians 62-35 in 2008 and won them 73-27 in 2012 so Asians shifted 11 points to Obama in four years so it's not out of the question for it to trend even further to the left.

Obama probably hit the ceiling with the Asian vote in 2012 due to Romney's self-deportation comments. Plus, what makes Clinton such a good fit for Asians? Especially considering the fact that a lot of Asians are wealthier than average (especially Asian Indians), and most of them tend to be economically moderate, but only vote Dem because of social and foreign policy issues, so Rand may actually be a good fit for the demographic.  I could see Rand making huge inroads with the Asian Indian vote (speaking as an Asian Indian myself), thus making Asian vote as a whole slightly more Republican than it was in 2012.

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

Alright? I think we're all aware that Obama won Asians. Doesn't mean that Clinton will gain ten points with that demographic.

Obama won Asians 62-35 in 2008 and won them 73-27 in 2012 so Asians shifted 11 points to Obama in four years so it's not out of the question for it to trend even further to the left.

Obama probably hit the ceiling with the Asian vote in 2012 due to Romney's self-deportation comments. Plus, what makes Clinton such a good fit for Asians? Especially considering the fact that a lot of Asians are wealthier than average (especially Asian Indians), and most of them tend to be economically moderate, but only vote Dem because of social and foreign policy issues, so Rand may actually be a good fit for the demographic.  I could see Rand making huge inroads with the Asian Indian vote (speaking as an Asian Indian myself), thus making Asian vote as a whole slightly more Republican than it was in 2012.

Couple of things on this.  One is that Bill and Hillary Clinton did a lot of outreach to both the Latino and Asian American political communities during Bill's time as President and appointed a number of Asians to prominent posts -- Clinton was the first president to appoint an Asian to his Cabinet (Norman Mineta).  Notably, it was during Clinton's Presidency that the Asian vote began to shift toward the Democrats.  After losing the Asian vote 36-55 to George H.W. Bush in 1992, Clinton lost it much more narrowly (44-48) to Dole in 1996.  In 2000, Gore won Asians 55-41 and the Democratic Party has easily won them in every Presidential election since.

Obama did very well with Asian voters in both of his general election races, but Hillary Clinton actually defeated Obama by a wide margin with Asian voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary (with the exception of Hawaii).  She has a lot of experience with political outreach to Asians, both from her time as First Lady as well as representing New York, a state with a large Asian population.  As Secretary of State she made Asia a diplomatic priority -- the "Pivot to Asia" as it later became known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_foreign_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration#The_.27Pivot.27