Hillary vs. Rand - national demographics

[henster]

Whites - 55 - 43 Rand
African-Americans - 96 - 3 Hillary
Hispanics - 76- 22 Hillary
Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary
Men - 44 - 51 Rand
Women - 59 - 39 Hillary
18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary
30-44 - 51 - 47 Hillary
45-59 - 50 - 47 Hillary
60+ - 49 - 46 Hillary
Liberals - 94 - 4 Hillary
Moderates - 63 - 34 Hillary
Conservatives - 86 - 12 Rand

[henster]

Rand is cracking at least 15% of the AA vote. Millenials are not going to vote Hilary over Rand. Moderates will be split between both

A guy who had previously stated he had issues with the Civil Rights Act is not getting anywhere near 15% of the AA. And I don't even believe a Republican has gotten more than 11% of the AA vote in 20 years.

[henster]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

[henster]

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul

18-29 - 62 - 37 Hillary

Asians - 83 - 16 Hillary

No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

There is no way Asian Americans would ever vote that overwhelmingly Democratic. The best I could see Clinton doing with the Asian vote is 77-21.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

[henster]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108

Alright? I think we're all aware that Obama won Asians. Doesn't mean that Clinton will gain ten points with that demographic.

Obama won Asians 62-35 in 2008 and won them 73-27 in 2012 so Asians shifted 11 points to Obama in four years so it's not out of the question for it to trend even further to the left.