Hillary vs. Rand - national demographics (user search)
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  Hillary vs. Rand - national demographics (search mode)
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Author Topic: Hillary vs. Rand - national demographics  (Read 1232 times)
RR1997
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Posts: 2,997
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« on: August 08, 2014, 04:55:39 PM »

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul







No.
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RR1997
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,997
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2014, 07:34:37 PM »

Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote

Where do you find that polling?

Source

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RR1997
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,997
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2014, 09:41:19 PM »

How would each of the following groups vote nationally?

Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul







No.

Why not? Obama won Asians with 73% of the vote.

There is no way Asian Americans would ever vote that overwhelmingly Democratic. The best I could see Clinton doing with the Asian vote is 77-21.
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RR1997
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,997
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2014, 08:06:28 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2014, 09:16:10 AM by RR1997 »


Obama won Asians 62-35 in 2008 and won them 73-27 in 2012 so Asians shifted 11 points to Obama in four years so it's not out of the question for it to trend even further to the left.

Obama probably hit the ceiling with the Asian vote in 2012 due to Romney's self-deportation comments. Plus, what makes Clinton such a good fit for Asians? Especially considering the fact that a lot of Asians are wealthier than average (especially Asian Indians), and most of them tend to be economically moderate, but only vote Dem because of social and foreign policy issues, so Rand may actually be a good fit for the demographic.  I could see Rand making huge inroads with the Asian Indian vote (speaking as an Asian Indian myself), thus making Asian vote as a whole slightly more Republican than it was in 2012.
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