How would each of the following groups vote nationally?
Whites: 55-43 Rand Paul
African-Americans: 90-9 Hillary Clinton
Hispanics: 75-23 Hillary Clinton
Asians: 72-26 Hillary Clinton
Men: 52-46 Rand Paul
Women: 59-39 Hillary Clinton
18-29: 50-48 Hillary Clinton (I think that Paul would improve significantly from Romney's performance with young voters even if Clinton wins by a larger margin nationwide than Obama in 2012 did or not. The youth that grew up under Obama is becoming a lot more Republican. Romney won the 18 year old vote by a large margin in 2012, and Romney also won the 19 year old vote and the 20 year old vote, but it was the voters that were between the ages of 21-29 that broke heavily for Obama. Also Barack Obama was a good fit for young voters, while Clinton is a terrible fit for young voters and Paul is himself a good fit for young voters. I could even see Paul outright winning the youth vote in a good year for the Republicans.)
30-44: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
45-59: 55-44 Hillary Clinton
60+: 50-48 Hillary Clinton
Liberals: 93-5 Hillary Clinton
Moderates : 62-36 Hillary Clinton
Conservatives : 87-11 Rand Paul
No.
Here's the thing. Actions speak louder than words. So the guy who said he had issues with the Civil Rights Act and voted against student loan relief isn't going to win over large amounts of African Americans and students just because he talks to them more than other members of his party. I think he'll make inroads with youth for sure, but it won't be as big as you make it sound. And they definitely wouldn't be anywhere near big enough to counteract Hillary's inroads with hawks.
Note that I'm not saying Rand couldn't beat Hillary, because he definitely could and is better suited to do it than most Republicans; I'm just saying that even if he does win, you won't see huge trends relative to what a standard Republican victory would look like.
