Austrian Single Member Parliamentary Districts

[Cranberry]

Austrian Single Member Parliamentary Districts

Inspired by an old thread by Lewis, and the current NEOS-proposal over the introduction of FPTP single member districts in Austria, as opposed to the current PR voting system, I decided to do my own project with districting Austria, using the current number of MPs, 183.
This leads to the following distribution of MPs per Bundesland:

Vorarlberg      8
Tirol      15
Salzburg      11
Oberösterreich      32
Niederösterreich      37
Wien      33
Burgenland      7
Steiermark      27
Kärnten    13

I will be doing the Bundesländer in this order, starting with Vorarlberg in the next post.

[Cranberry]

Vorarlberg

Vorarlberg, the westernmost state of Austria, is the second smallest and second least populated state, yet with a fairly high poulation density, especially in its northwestern corner, giving it 8 parliamentary districts. Vorarlberg is dominated by the ÖVP, yet FPÖ, Greens and NEOS show strong showings in industrial areas (FPÖ) or urban centres (Greens and NEOS). The SPÖ is historically very weak in Vorarlberg, and has since the 90ies, when Austria transformed from a two-party to a multi-party system, even lost support.

Voralberg 1 - Bodensee:
The first district of Vorarlberg is located entirely inside the district of Bregenz, along the shore of the Bodensee lake, from which it recieves its name. Population centres include the old industrial town of Hard, the lakeside town of Höchst, and the Bregenz suburbs of Wolfurt and Lauterach, yet not that city. Nearly all municipalities of the first district if Vorarlberg had the ÖVP at the first place in the 2013 election, therefore this seat is considered safe ÖVP.

Vorarlberg 2 - Pfänder:
The second district of Vorarlberg includes Bregenz and its northern suburbs up to the German border. It is named after the town hill of Bregenz, the "Pfänder". Bregenz comprises more than half of the district's population. This district is considered a likely ÖVP district.

Vorarlberg 3 - Bregenzerwald:
The third district of Vorarlberg is made up by the rest of the district of Bregenz, the so-called "Bregenzerwald". It is one of the most ÖVP-leaning regions in the whole country, a valley of small villages along the mountains. It is one of the safest seats for the ÖVP.

Vorarlberg 4 - Unteres Rheintal
The lower Rheintal valley (Unteres Rheintal in German) is the fourth district of Vorarlberg, the industrial towns of Hohenems, Lustenau, Altach and Mäder. ÖVP and FPÖ are similarly strong in this area, due to a large share of the population being of turkish or former yugoslavian descent. This district is considered a pure toss-up between ÖVP and FPÖ.

Vorarlberg 5 - Dornbirn
The fifth district of Vorarlberg is just Vorarlberg's biggest city, Dornbirn. Dornbirn was won by the ÖVP in 2013, yet FPÖ were a strong second and the Greens were not too far behind. The district may tilt towards the ÖVP in a narrow election, so it is given a lean ÖVP rating.

Vorarlberg 6 - Oberes Rheintal
The Rheintal valley in the district of Feldkirch (being higher than the lower Rheintal valley - therefore the German name "Oberes" Rheintal), makes up Vorarlberg's sixth district. The city of Feldkirch makes up the largest share of the district, and like most parts of the district, it was won by the ÖVP. The district as a whole therefore leans ÖVP, but the Greens might be able to win the second place against the FPÖ.

Vorarlberg 7 - Ill
The area in central Vorarlberg between Feldkirch and Bludenz, along the river "Ill", is located in the seventh district of Vorarlberg. It is a more rural, less industrialized area than the Rheintal and Bodensee area, therefore the ÖVP is stronger and the FPÖ weaker there. The seat therefore is a safe ÖVP seat.

Vorarlberg 8 - Bludenz
Vorarlberg's eighth district, the mountanious Klostertal-, Montafon and Walsertal- valleys along with the area around the city of Bludenz, is equally rural as the Bregenzerwald, in the third district. The leader of the NEOS, Matthias Strolz, was born and lived in this area however, and he may be able to pick up this seat with a strong personal campaign. This seat, otherwise a safe ÖVP seat, therefore moves to toss-up between ÖVP and NEOS.

Possible, likely Scenarios:
8 ÖVP
7 ÖVP 1 FPÖ
7 ÖVP 1 NEOS
6 ÖVP 1 FPÖ 1 NEOS

Map of Vorarlberg's eight districts:

(Red - Vbg 1; Brown - Vbg 2; Yellow - Vgb 3; Purple - Vbg 4; Green - Vbg 5; Blue - Vbg 6; Orange - Vbg 7; Light Green - Vbg 8 )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you're trying to work out how hypothetical districts would vote, don't forget that FPTP gives the voter a very different set of calculations to play with than most proportional systems.

[Cranberry]

On we go with the most important and overall by far best Bundesland
As Tirol is my home state, and I know naturally a bit more of its politics and politicians, I will project who may be the MP for the respective districts.

Tirol

Tirol, located in the west of Austria, is a highly montanious region, the ten highest mountains of Austria are all located in that state, and thus despite its relative big size the least densley populated state of Austria. Nevertheless, Tirol's large size (it's the third biggest state by area) gives it 15 parliamentary districts. Politically speaking Tirol is similar to Vorarlberg, albeit with a tad more SPÖ support and a tad less FPÖ suport than its western neighbour. Tirol is one of the strongest states for the Greens, they won the capital, Innsbruck, and several affluent suburbs around Innsbruck in last years elections (Tirol also had a state election in 2013). Therefore, the state government is a coalition between ÖVP and Greens.

Tirol 1 - Oberes Gericht:
Located in the south west of Tirol, this parliamentary district comprises the total district of Landeck. Its name derives from the old court in the town of Prutz, the "highest" (oberes in German) court in Tirol. A very conservative area living nearly solely from tourism, the district is a very safe ÖVP win. Possible MPs include Günther Platter, the current Governor of Tirol should he return into the national parliament, or Wolfgang Jörg, the mayor of Landeck, the main city in the district, both members of the ÖVP.

Tirol 2 - Fernpass:
The Lechtal valley, the area around Reutte and the Zugspitze to the Fernpass, and the Mieminger Plateau and the Gurgltal, a high plain to the south of it, make up the second district. Its northern area is very remote from the rest of Tirol, nearer to the German Allgäu, being called the Außerfern - the area "outside" of the Fernpass. The whole district is one of the strongest areas for the ÖVP nationwide, therefore a safe ÖVP seat. Elisabeth Pfurtscheller, a current MP from that area, would likely represent this district in a FPTP parliament too.

Tirol 3 - Imst:
Tirol's third district is the whole Inntal valley from Imst to Stams, and the Pitztal and Ötztal valleys meeting the broad Inntal valley between these two towns. A very touristy area, especially the Ötztal Valley and the Kühtai area, it is nevertheless the area that comes closest to at least a bit of industry in the whole "Oberland". Therefore, the district has a bit better showings for the SPÖ and the FPÖ, yet nevertheless is a likely ÖVP seat. The natural MP for the district is Ernst Schöpf, the mayor of Sölden and leader of the state's association of mayors.

Tirol 4 - Munde:
Comprising the whole area around Telfs, Tirol's third biggest town (yet no city), Tirol's fourth district is named after the "Hohe Munde", a highly distinctive and memorable mountain visible from the whole area. The main town of Telfs and the town of Zirl were won by the Greens in the last election, yet the rest of the district is very pro-ÖVP, therefore giving the district a likely ÖVP rating. The most likely MP for the district is Christian Härting, the young, independent yet ÖVP-leaning mayor of Telfs. (This is the district I would live in; personal sidenote)

Tirol 5 - Wipptal & Mittelgebirge:
The area to the south and southwest of Innsbruck, the Wipptal valley, the Sellraintal valley and the "Western Mittelgebirge", a high plain above the Inntal valley, makes up the fifth district of Tirol. Composed of both suburban and very rural and touristy regions, the area overall is a likely ÖVP win. A possible MP for the region is Erich Ruetz, mayor of Völs, or Peter Schröcksnadel, a business man and president of both the Austrian and the European Ski Federation.

Tirol 6 - Innsbruck Nord:
The city of Innsbruck, capital and by far largest city fo Tirol, is divided into two districts. The first one, Tirol's sixth, makes up the quarters and neighbourhoods north of the river Inn, the western parts of Innsbruck, the quarter around the University and the Old Town, in general a very urban, modern and cosmopolitan area, certainly the more affluent half of Innsbruck. The district therefore is a likely Green district, with Gebi Mair, the young leader of the Greens in the state parliament, or Christoph Platzgummer, a prominent ÖVP city politician, being likely choices for MP.

Tirol 7 - Innsbruck Süd:
The southeastern parts of Innsbruck, Tirol's seventh district, comprises both the wealthy, upper-class city-suburbs of Igls and Vill, old villages up a high plain with a splendid view over the city, and the "poorest" working-class parts of the city, as well the areas with the highest share of migrants. Therefore, the disrict is a pure toss-up between ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ. Again Christoph Platzgummer might be a likely MP, or August Penz, the former leader of the state FPÖ.

Tirol 8 - Östliches Mittelgebirge:
Tirol's eighth district is made up by Innsbruck's suburbs in the Southeast and East, and the old city of Hall. Parts of it are located on a high plain above the Inntal valley, therefore the name Östliches Mittelgebirge (roughlt translates to Eastern High Plain). The area in total is quite affluent, and a natural stronghold for both Greens and ÖVP, leading to the district being a toss-up between ÖVP and Greens. A likely MP for this area is either Ingrid Felipe, the Green Second Lt Governor of Tirol, or Eva Maria Posch, the mayor of Hall, from the ÖVP.

Tirol 9 - Schwaz:
Tirol's ninth district is located in the Inntal valley from the industrial town of Wattens to the city of Schwaz. The popluated areas of the district are entirely located within the Inntal valley, leading to a relativly diverse economical structure for Tirol, but comparably a little importance of tourism. Politically speaking, the district is an projection of Tirol in general, leading to a likely ÖVP district, possibly represented by Fritz Gurgiser, an independent, or Hans Lintner, the ÖVP mayor of Schwaz.

Tirol 10 - Zillertal:
The Zillertal valley, a major toruistical area, and the industrial town of Jenbach make up the tenth district of Tirol. A both touristy and rural area, it is a natural stronghold for the ÖVP, thus making the district a safe ÖVP win. The most likely MP for the district is Josef Geisler, the First Lt Governor of Tirol, of the ÖVP.

Tirol 11 - Rofan:
Encompassing the area around the Achensee Lake, the Inntal valley from Jenbach to Wörgl and the Alpachtal valley, Tirol's eleventh district is a similar district as the ninth. Grouped about the "Rofan" Mountains, the district will likely be won by the ÖVP, though SPÖ and FPÖ usually show strong showings in the industrial city of Wörgl. Nevertheless, the ÖVP dominated more rural areas prevail in terms of population, leading to former Wörgl mayor Arno Abler of the ÖVP to possibly be the MP for the district.

Tirol 12 - Unterland:
Along the border to Germany, in the lowest parts of the Inntal valley, lies Tirol's second biggest city, Kufstein, that together with its surroundings makes up Tirol's twelfth parliamentary district. The region with the strongest showings for the FPÖ in Tirol, is nevertheless a strong ÖVP region too, therefore leading to it being a lean ÖVP district. A likely MP for the district is Martin Krumschnabel, the independent (yet ÖVP-leaning) mayor of Kufstein.

Tirol 13 - Wilder Kaiser:
South of the famous "Wilder Kaiser" mountain formation, the "Sölllandl" and Brixental valley comprise the thirteenth district of Tirol. A relatively rural area, the district is a safe ÖVP win, possibly represented by Beate Palfrader, a popular member of the state government from the ÖVP.

Tirol 14 - Leukental:
Tirol's fourteenth district is situated in the east of Tirol, in the Leukental valley with the two major cities of St Johann in Tirol and Kitzbühel. The area is relatively diverse, and especially Kitzbühel and St Johann are hotbeds of the FPÖ, yet the overall standard conservative leaning of the rural areas in the district lead to it being a lean ÖVP district. The most likely choice for the MP of the district is Klaus Winkler, mayor of Kitzbühel.

Tirol 15 - Osttirol:
Osttirol (East Tirol in German), the area in the Southeast of Tirol, divided from the rest of Tirol since the division of Tirol between Austria and Italy after WW1, makes up the last, fifteenth district of Tirol. A very rural, remote and very little touristy area, it is a stronghold for the ÖVP, making the seat a safe ÖVP win. Osttirol might be represented in parliament by Andreas Köll, mayor of Matrei in Osttirol and leader of the state association of employees, an ÖVP division.

Possible, likely scenarios:
15 ÖVP
14 ÖVP 1 Greens
14 ÖVP 1 FPÖ
13 ÖVP 1 Greens 1 FPÖ
13 ÖVP 2 Greens 1 FPÖ
12 ÖVP 2 Greens 2 FPÖ
(including other combinations)

Map of Tirol's fifteen districts:

(T1-blue, T2-red, T3-green, T4-yellow, T5-purple, T6-light green, T7-light orange, T8-pink, T9-light blue, T10-maroon, T11-orange, T12-light yellow, T13-black, T14-brown, T15-teal)

[Tender Branson]

Great stuff !



I'm already interested in how you slice the Pinzgau (where I live) into 2 districts and which city goes to which district.

[Tender Branson]

My 2-district proposal for the Pinzgau:



Pinzgau-North has 32.352 registered voters (2013 federal election numbers).

Pinzgau-South has 31.712 registered voters.

Zell am See (the capital, coloured green on the map) is part of the Northern district.

The 2013 federal election result for each district was:

NORTH:

26.5% ÖVP, 26.4% SPÖ, 23.8% FPÖ, 10.4% Greens, 5.3% TS, 3.8% NEOS, 3.0% BZÖ, 0.8% Others

SOUTH:

27.9% SPÖ, 27.5% ÖVP, 24.5% FPÖ, 7.8% Greens, 6.2% TS, 2.8% NEOS, 2.6% BZÖ, 0.7% Others

---

These are the election results without postal votes (postal votes are sent to the district election commission and they are assigned only to the district result, but NOT to the town/city results).

The postal ballots for the whole district of Pinzgau split down as:

28.5% ÖVP, 25.8% SPÖ, 16.9% Greens, 15.2% FPÖ, 5.9% TS, 4.1% NEOS, 2.2% BZÖ, 1.4% Others

---

But they account for only 11% of all ballots cast, so the rough estimate for each district (adjusted for postal ballots) is:

NORTH:

27% ÖVP, 26% SPÖ, 22% FPÖ, 12% Greens, 5% TS, 4% NEOS, 3% BZÖ, 1% Others

SOUTH:

28% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 23% FPÖ, 9% Greens, 6% TS, 3% NEOS, 3% BZÖ, 1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg, wo die Gämsen "Internationale" singen.
Salzburg, wo die Murmeltiere Marx lesen.

Some translation:

"Salzburg, where the chamois are singing The Internationale".

"Salzburg, where the groundhogs are reading Marx".

...



...

Well, that was the case until 2 years ago when the state's investment scandal became known. Of course figures from both the SPÖ and the ÖVP (then the government) were involved in the scandal, but the voters punished the senior coalition partner SPÖ more than the ÖVP in the 2013 state election (The SPÖ lost 15% and the ÖVP lost 7%).

The SPÖ at 45% in Salzburg (2004) will probably never be achieved again.

[Cranberry]

Thanks a lot Tender for this Pinzgau plan You could make the whole Salzburg plan if you want, otherwise I'll be doing it once I come back from holiday...

[Harry Hayfield]

Anything that mentions FPTP gets my interest, but one small question. NEOS only have nine seats in the Austrian Parliament (out of 183) and the next elections are not due until 2017. There's no chance of this idea actually getting of the ground is there?

[Tender Branson]

Anything that mentions FPTP gets my interest, but one small question. NEOS only have nine seats in the Austrian Parliament (out of 183) and the next elections are not due until 2017. There's no chance of this idea actually getting of the ground is there?

Late 2018 (5-year term).



Anyway, I don't see this happening. Despite the fact that SPÖ and ÖVP would probably benefit from a FPTP system, it's more or less consensus to keep the PR-system as it is. If anything, they could at some point reform it to make it more like Germany's system, which uses a mix of FPTP and PR. But for this, they would have to pass it with a 2/3 majority, which SPÖVP+NEOS+TS don't have. (TS also favours a FPTP-system). These 4 parties have 65% of the seats in parliament, FPÖ+Greens (which are both opposed to a FPTP-system) have 35% of the seats.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why would a small centrist party without much of a Hochburg (defined as places where they could actually win seats) want FPTP, anyway?

[Tender Branson]

Reply to "Tender Branson": "that SPÖ and ÖVP would probably benefit from a  FPTP-system": Doubtful in the case of ÖVP (~20%, FPÖ ~30%).

I think that actual ÖVP-candidates running for a seat would be A) stronger than the ÖVP's poll standing right now and B) stronger than the FPÖ candidate, mostly because ÖVP candidates are more known locally than FPÖ-ones.

[Tender Branson]

No, surely not! ÖVP had to nominate mainly its experienced incumbents, who are as mediocre&unknown as their blue colleages. And FPÖ-MPs can get easily prominent in their constituency via provocation. (But as FPÖ was only in few areas strongest in 2013, ÖVP could survive first, before being squeezed.)

Au contraire !

Take a look at the Vorzugsstimmen (preference votes) in each electoral district and you will see that the SPÖ and ÖVP candidates get much more than the FPÖ candidates.

Don't underestimate the machines of SPÖ and ÖVP, via trade unions and ÖVP-Bünde.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/Land_VZ_Broschuere_gesamt.pdf