If you were a mega-donor...

[Adam Griffin]

Based on what recent polling and developments we've seen in both states, I'm curious to know. Essentially, which candidate would you consider to be a safer bet for re-election/an upset as of now?

[Flake]

Oklahoma. I can't even imagine FitzGerald winning while Dorman has a 30% chance or so to win.

[Vega]

Oklahoma would be a really big headline if a Democrat wins. So probably the Sooner State.

[NHLiberal]

I think Dorman's odds are slightly higher than FitzGerald's and lots of money would do more for Dorman (give him the ability to run lots of negative ads against Fallin's awful record) than it would for FitzGerald (help him pursue a long-shot attempt to rehabilitate his image). And a Democratic gubernatorial win in Oklahoma would make a big headline.

That said, Ohio needs a Democratic Governor more than Oklahoma does, and I'm not sure how much Dorman would be able to accomplish with OK's far-right legislature. There's also the redistricting issue in 2020, so it would be good to have a Democratic Governor elected in 2014 that could get reelected in 2018 rather than a popular Republican LG in Mary Taylor as the frontrunner for Governor in 2018.

So it would be a tough call, but I'd lean toward Oklahoma for now.

[TTS1996]

Ohio, ka(p)i(s)ch? Did you not get the memo here?

[IceSpear]

The governorship of Ohio is far more important than the governorship of Oklahoma. For example, I'd take a single win in Florida even if it meant the GOP won in Maine/Arkansas/Hawaii/Connecticut.

[Potus]

I would buy Tom Cotton's soul.

[free my dawg]

Oklahoma.

Out of all of them I'd probably dump a lot into Georgia or Kansas but since Fallin is the worst candidate (outside of politics), I'd like to see her in the unemployment line.

[Simfan34]

New York.

[Supersonic]

Adam is going to go ape that people are choosing Oklahoma.

[TTS1996]

Adam is going to go ape that people are choosing Oklahoma.

Not at all, Adam has told us that despite the utter s***storm FitzGeRaLd is still going to win Ohio 50-49-1; so it isn't necessary for the Democrats to invest in such a safe D race in Ohio - they need to invest in marginals like Oklahoma instead.

[SPC]

Even if I didn't support Dorman, his victory seems more plausible than FitzGerald's.

[Maxwell]

If I were a mega-donor, I would probably drop huge amounts of money for Hemingway, but of these two, definitely Oklahoma. I wouldn't say Dorman has a 30% chance of winning as one user said, but I think he's better off than Fitzgerald.