Can Democrats make a comeback in Alabama?

[Adam Griffin]

Could the Democratic Party make a comeback there? Absolutely. Can progressive Democrats win statewide? Absolutely not.

Comparing AL with GA, we see that GA is about 8 points more Democratic than AL. Georgia happens to be 5 points blacker than AL, with the remainder of the current difference being made up by whites who are (somewhat) more Democratic and a larger Latino/Asian population. Extrapolating growth patterns out over the next decade or two, it's hard to see how AL gets anywhere close to being competitive under the same conditions that GA is enjoying.

The pathway to a competitive two-party system in AL unfortunately will require re-tracking their footsteps along the walkway of history. From what I understand, it's not so much that they've veered away from that original message, but rather that they don't have anyone skilled enough running the on-the-ground operations (with respect to data, precinct organizing, etc) and that the money has dried up. I think a strategy involving AL will have to be sold as a part of a larger Deep South strategy that takes in MS & SC along with GA in order to bring in national dollars from bigger donors. That's where they need to begin: justifying the need to water down Republican dominance in this region (even if we can't win) to take some of the "edge" off of the Republicans' power and influence in national politics. If every Southern state voted like it did in the 1980 presidential election, then the Republicans would be dead in the water.