MN/MI: Which state is more vulnerable going forward?

[Mr. Illini]

Well? I say Michigan.

[eric82oslo]

Michigan, as some kind of a failed state, is obviously vulnerable. Especially towards flirting with Rand Paul. However, it got its auto industry giving it a solid Democratic boost. In the short term I'd say Michigan, but in the longer term perhaps Minnesota?

[henster]

Michigan, as some kind of a failed state, is obviously vulnerable. Especially towards flirting with Rand Paul. However, it got its auto industry giving it a solid Democratic boost. In the short term I'd say Michigan, but in the longer term perhaps Minnesota?

What makes you think Rand Paul could carry Michigan? Didn't he oppose the auto bailout?

[TDAS04]

Michigan.  The Democratic-voting base in Minnesota is more solid, while Michigan is swingier.

[eric82oslo]

Michigan, as some kind of a failed state, is obviously vulnerable. Especially towards flirting with Rand Paul. However, it got its auto industry giving it a solid Democratic boost. In the short term I'd say Michigan, but in the longer term perhaps Minnesota?

What makes you think Rand Paul could carry Michigan? Didn't he oppose the auto bailout?

I didn't say he could carry it, just make it more competitive than usual.

[sg0508]

I think they're both similar at this point, but I agree with others in that the MN Democratic base seems more stubborn and always seems to come through for the Democrats at the Presidential level.

In a very good GOP year (with a good economy---> crucial for winning those Detroit suburbs), MI could tilt.

[JRP1994]

The more Republican PVI is in bold.

Year          Michigan PVI          Minnesota PVI
1964              D+11.03                     D+5.18
1968              D+7.43                      D+13.23
1972              D+8.76                      D+17.64
1976              R+7.45                      D+10.81
1980              R+3.25                      D+13.68
1984              R+0.77                      D+18.40
1988              R+0.17                      D+14.75
1992              D+1.84                      D+6.07
1996              D+4.69                      D+7.62
2000              D+4.61                       D+1.88
2004              D+5.88                      D+5.94
2008              D+9.18                       D+2.98
2012              D+5.61                       D+3.83

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The collapse of the Michigan economy and the long term destruction of Michigan's auto and other industrial sectors  worries me more than Minnesota.

The percent of union members as part of the country and especially in the rust belt states like Ohio and Michigan has been declining since the 50's.  Michigan has a lot of the stereotypical socially conservative gun owner who votes Democrat based on the fact that they are in a union. If that good union job is gone, it would not surprise me to see these types of voters swing Republican long term.

[Miles]

Michigan.  The Democratic-voting base in Minnesota is more solid, while Michigan is swingier.

[SNJ1985]

Who benefited most from Michigan's population decline from 2005 to 2012? Democrats or Republicans?

[MATTROSE94]

Who benefited most from Michigan's population decline from 2005 to 2012? Democrats or Republicans?

I would say the Republicans.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Who benefited most from Michigan's population decline from 2005 to 2012? Democrats or Republicans?

I would say the Republicans.

Probably.  A lot of blue collar jobs have left the state while most suburban White flight has moved away from Detroit but stayed in state.

[DS0816]

A Republican is going to have to win by at least six percent points in the U.S. Popular Vote to be able to flip either one.

[dmmidmi]

Who benefited most from Michigan's population decline from 2005 to 2012? Democrats or Republicans?

I would say the Republicans.

Probably.  A lot of blue collar jobs have left the state while most suburban White flight has moved away from Detroit but stayed in state.

Actually, the answer may be "neither": http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2013/03/database_see_which_michigan_co.html

Some traditionally Democratic counties (Lake, Marquette, Washtenaw) gained population, while some traditionally Republican counties (Kent, Livingston, Ottawa) gained population. And vice versa.