Q2, 2014 GDP data out on Thursday for the EU/Eurozone
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  Q2, 2014 GDP data out on Thursday for the EU/Eurozone
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Author Topic: Q2, 2014 GDP data out on Thursday for the EU/Eurozone  (Read 1505 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 11, 2014, 08:46:10 AM »

Will be very mixed:

The UK, Spain and Greece will have really good GDP figures, while the German and Italian GDP growth will likely come to a standstill (maybe even a decline in Italy). Austria, which is in between Germany and Italy (the biggest trading partners), will certainly feel the downturn as well.

France is the big unknown component (but the chances are that there wasn't much growth either).

Alltogether, growth for the Eurozone should be 0.2-0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 0.3-0.5% for the EU-28 (because of the good UK numbers).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2014, 02:18:31 AM »

Germany's economy actually declined by 0.2% on a q/q-basis.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/08/PE14_287_811.html

Italy was also down by 0.2%

http://www.istat.it/en/archive/130067

Austria, which is in between both countries, actually had 0.2% growth

http://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=47441&mime_type=application/pdf

...

Other countries so far:

UK: +0.8%
Hungary +0.8%
Spain: +0.6%
Slovakia: +0.6%
Belgium: +0.1%
France: 0.0%
Czech Republic: 0.0%
Romania: -1.0%

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/14/euro-zone-gdp-live
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2014, 02:19:24 AM »

With these numbers, the Eurozone might be back into recession territory (likely -0.1% q/q).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2014, 03:22:14 AM »

Netherlands just reported some good numbers for Q2, so it's more likely that the Eurozone just stagnated in Q2, with the EU-28 up by 0.1%

Eurostat will be out with the numbers soon.
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swl
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2014, 06:50:41 AM »

France decided to forget about the 3% deficit rule for now. German exports were already suffering from the situation in the eurozone, and they are going to suffer even more with the sanctions on Russia. The tide is slowly turning.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2014, 09:19:33 AM »

How many times has the Eurozone has been in recession since 2007?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
Clarko95
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2014, 09:59:34 AM »

How many times has the Eurozone has been in recession since 2007?

The Eurozone as a whole has been in recession only twice, the first time being 2008-2009 and then 2011-2013 (?). It should also be noted that the Eurozone's GDP is still 2% lower than it was in 2007.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2014, 08:32:19 AM »

How many times has the Eurozone has been in recession since 2007?

The Eurozone as a whole has been in recession only twice, the first time being 2008-2009 and then 2011-2013 (?). It should also be noted that the Eurozone's GDP is still 2% lower than it was in 2007.

So this will make this a triple-dip-recession?
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