Democratic Nomination for President

[Inmate Trump]

I believe Dean still has the nomination all wrapped up, regardless of Saddam's capture.

[Inmate Trump]

I think what the media keeps focusing on--that Dean will be hurt by Saddam's capture--is based on an assumption that this is the general election Dean is in a race for here and not the Democratic primary for president.  Were this the general election, Dean would be dead and Bush would be reelected.

But it's not the general election, and thus you have the joy of Howard Dean.  When analyzing this situation, you have to ask yourself, who votes in the Democratic primary?  No other group but the hardcore Democrats, the liberal (and dominate) wing of the party.  Hardcore liberals (those that intend to vote in the primaries) love Dean--Saddam's capture hasn't changed that.  They can't keep enough of him, in fact.

And what do hardcore liberals hate more than ever?  George W. Bush.  Hardcore liberals also hate the war in Iraq.  Even though Saddan has been captured, their stance hasn't changed; "the war was wrong," "getting Saddam changes nothing--troops still die every day," "where's Osama?" "where are the WMDs?"

The capture of Saddam might even add a little more fuel to Dean's campaign.  ALL Democrats recoiled from the news of Saddam's capture.  But the hardcore liberal wing of the party, after their initial despair, will regroup and get behind Dean again even stronger than before.

Al Gore's HUGE endorsement stills stands, as do the many endorsements he has received from black leaders across the country and certain Unions.  Saddam's capture has changed nothing.  You may even see Al Gore out there again actively campaigned for Dean all the way to Iowa.

[Inmate Trump]

The big thing about Clark is that no one knows where he stands on anything.  His campaign has failed to get any kind of message out, and it isn't that they haven't had the time.

At first he was for the war, then he was against, then he was for, then against, and now he's somewhere in between.

And jravnsbo is right.  What state does he make his big breakthrough in?  Dean is currently leading in ALL early states save Missouri, which obviously Gephardt is leading, and Oklahoma for Lieberman. (Though it is quite possible that Dean knocks both of those candidates out of those states by winning Iowa and N.H.)

From the polls I've seen, the first primary that Clark is leading is California, which doesn't have it's primary until March 2.  But by March 2, Dean will have won almost every state prior to California and will be seen as the nominee.  That will be more than enough to push Dean ahead in the first state Clark is leading.

[Inmate Trump]

You know, Edwards could have been great- right accent, right looks, right money, right positions. His flop has been one of the biggest disappointments of the campaign season, in many ways worse than Kerry's, which is easily attributable to Dean.

I agree.  I remember when Edwards announced his candidacy, I said to my friends and family when talking politics, "that's the guy Bush needs to look out for."  Looking back, I see I was very wrong.  Edwards is nowhere, and I really don't see him getting anywhere.  I've said it before though, he would be a good VP candidate.  However, should Dean win the nomination, I don't see him choosing Edwards for VP; I see him choosing Clark.

[Inmate Trump]

I wouldn't brag about having Michael Moore on my side.  The man is out of control and I'd feel pretty safe to bet that the majority of Americans (the few who actually know who he is) do not like him.