How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed?

[Mr. Illini]

Hillary/Biden vs. McCain/Palin in 2008. How would it have looked?

Here is mine.

[IceSpear]

Same as Obama's + WV/AR/MO.

[Dixie Reborn]

Same as Obama's + WV/AR/MO.

+ LA/GA/MT

[Rockefeller GOP]

Assuming the same national environment, the same McCain running mate and the same Hillary "persona" as we saw in the primaries, I could see this bad of a defeat for McCain:

[TDAS04]

[SWE]

Probably Obama 2008 minus Indiana, maybe picking up Missouri. The idea that Hillary, who had a below 40% approval rating in 2008 would do significantly better than Obama, who had an approval rating above 60%, is ridiculous.

[SPC]

[Potus]

In 2008, people knew the real Hillary. The evil, wicked, ambitious, convictionless witch that we all hated. She would have lost North Carolina and black turnout would have fallen across the country. This delusion that Hillary had a winning charm is just that. A delusion.

[Nichlemn]

Assuming the same national environment, the same McCain running mate and the same Hillary "persona" as we saw in the primaries, I could see this bad of a defeat for McCain:

Why would Hillary win Montana, but not Colorado? Seems that the kind of Dem that fares poorly in the latter is going to do even worse in the former.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I always thought Obama was the stronger candidate.

[Liberalrocks]

Hillary Clinton 361 EV
John McCain   177EV

I think Hillary would have posted a slightly stronger popular vote margins due to losing many of the southern states by half or less the margins Obama lost them in. I believe McCain would be held to high single digits in the upper southern states that Clinton lost.

[Mr. Morden]

How does she win the Democratic nomination in this scenario?  Does she still lose the pledged delegate count in the primaries and have the super delegates bail her out?  Does she win the primary race unambiguously?  That would have at least some bearing on how strong she would be going into the general election.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Hillary Clinton would have overall done much better against McCain than Obama did.

[SWE]

Hillary Clinton: strong enough to win Safe R states, but evidently not strong enough to win a Lean D state like Colorado.

[Badger]

So she wins KY and WV, but loses Hi. Got it.

[Sopranos Republican]

[TDAS04]

So she wins KY and WV, but loses Hi. Got it.

Oops.  Hawaii was an accident.  I think I intended to just make Hawaii <70% D, but obviously Hillary would have carried it.

Overall, I think my map is accurate, if possibly a little optimistic for Hillary.  WV, KY, & NC could easily have gone Republican, but I think Clinton would probably have carried the rest of the states I have in red (plus Hawaii )

[Sopranos Republican]

So she wins KY and WV, but loses Hi. Got it.

Oops.  Hawaii was an accident.  I think I intended to just make Hawaii <70% D, but obviously Hillary would have carried it.

Overall, I think my map is accurate, if possibly a little optimistic for Hillary.  WV, KY, & NC could easily have gone Republican, but I think Clinton would probably have carried the rest of the states I have in red (plus Hawaii )

I was pretty sure it was just a mistake. But this thread, my God.

[ElectionsGuy]

355-183. She probably would've done worse than Obama. But guys, lets get real, she wouldn't carry Kentucky. Bill barely won it in the 90's, to think she would win it in 2008 is a huge stretch. West Virginia and Arkansas though, might be questionable. I did put WV in Clinton's column because there's a lot of voters that stayed home in 2008/2012 or who voted for McCain that would've voted Hillary. I think Arkansas would be super close, more like 2000, but in the end McCain would win it. She does worse in Indiana and Illinois, better in Missouri, and probably worse in NC and VA.

[NHLiberal]

355-183. She probably would've done worse than Obama. But guys, lets get real, she wouldn't carry Kentucky. Bill barely won it in the 90's, to think she would win it in 2008 is a huge stretch. West Virginia and Arkansas though, might be questionable. I did put WV in Clinton's column because there's a lot of voters that stayed home in 2008/2012 or who voted for McCain that would've voted Hillary. I think Arkansas would be super close, more like 2000, but in the end McCain would win it. She does worse in Indiana and Illinois, better in Missouri, and probably worse in NC and VA.

I agree with this map, other than VA and CO which I think Hillary would have lost to McCain. KY/AR/LA would obviously be closer than with Obama but she still wouldn't have won them (and DEFINITELY won't in 2016)

[Rockefeller GOP]

Hillary Clinton: strong enough to win Safe R states, but evidently not strong enough to win a Lean D state like Colorado.

Was WV really a safe R state going into the '08 election if Hillary is the nominee??  I think you're tainted by what 6 years of Obama have done to the landscape...

[NHLiberal]

Hillary Clinton: strong enough to win Safe R states, but evidently not strong enough to win a Lean D state like Colorado.

Was WV really a safe R state going into the '08 election if Hillary is the nominee??  I think you're tainted by what 6 years of Obama have done to the landscape...

Exactly-- WV wasn't a safe R state then, nor was CO a lean D state. 2007 ≠ 2014

[Antonio the Sixth]

[henster]

I think she would have won the PV by 53-44 and the EV 380 - 158. We have to remember Bush's approval rating were in 20s and the subsequent economic collapse that caused Obama's numbers to surge and McCain's awful response. These events would've likely benefited Hillary just as much and I think Obama slightly underperformed what a generic D would've that year.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Obviously, some of this was underdog sympathy but by the end of the '08 primaries, Clinton was leading McCain, in some cases substantially, in polls of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia. She trailed narrowly (five or less) in four Obama states: CO, IA, NC, WI. The one O state where she trailed badly (nine points) was VA, but Obama was down eight in the same poll.

Now, what happened between May and the election? The economy crashed. This would only have helped Clinton's chances, just as it did Obama's IRL. Arguably it would have helped her more because of her husband's economic record.

I don't think she would have carried Louisiana. She might not have focused on Indiana or the district in Nebraska. But her potential to carry Southern/border states while holding on to most of Obama's map was clearly there based on contemporaneous polling.