What will Lisa Murkowski do in 2016?

[IceSpear]

Option 3.

[Miles]

If Republicans get the majority this year, I say she runs in their primary. She'll chair Energy; Republicans voters would be more likely to look past her mavericky record if she has that bargaining chip.  

[moderatevoter]

I'm honestly not sure. She recently sent a Cease-and-Desist letter to Begich's campaign for repeatedly including her in his campaign ads, and she's promised to campaign hard for whichevever Republican (save Miller) is the nominee. She's made it clear she wants a Republican colleague.

That, and like Miles said, she could have the Energy gavel.

It will be interesting to see what she does do. Her approval isn't great with Republicans, but I think she has time to improve on that, and her campaigning against Begich could be a sign she's thinking about this.

[IceSpear]

I'm honestly not sure. She recently sent a Cease-and-Desist letter to Begich's campaign for repeatedly including her in his campaign ads, and she's promised to campaign hard for whichevever Republican (save Miller) is the nominee. She's made it clear she wants a Republican colleague.

That, and like Miles said, she could have the Energy gavel.

It will be interesting to see what she does do. Her approval isn't great with Republicans, but I think she has time to improve on that, and her campaigning against Begich could be a sign she's thinking about this.

Yeah, the problem is it's a big risk. After all, if she lost a primary when her approval was very high amongst Republicans, it wouldn't be too hard to see her losing one now that she's in the negative with them. Alaska also has closed primaries, meaning she couldn't pull a Cochran and rely on Democratic crossovers. It could also depend on whether or not she has a legitimate challenger or just Miller-esque ones (or even possibly Miller himself). It will certainly be interesting.

[Vega]

Option 1. I don't see her running as a Independent unless she loses the Republican primary.

[Maxwell]

Retire or lose the Republican Primary.

[Indy Texas]

Suppose that after election night this November, the Senate is 51 R to 49 D.

Do the Democrats try to cut a deal with her to leave the GOP, become an Independent and caucus with Dems in return for letting her chair Energy and keep her seniority?

[7,052,770]

Suppose that after election night this November, the Senate is 51 R to 49 D.

Do the Democrats try to cut a deal with her to leave the GOP, become an Independent and caucus with Dems in return for letting her chair Energy and keep her seniority?

I think the time to do that was 2 years ago. If we didn't try, we weren't thinking ahead.

[cbannon5]

I don't see her retiring.  After all, she is only 57 years old which really isn't that old for a Senator. 

[Dixie Reborn]

Option 1. I don't see her running as a Independent unless she loses the Republican primary.

[Talleyrand]

If she didn't caucus with the Democrats after 2010, she certainly isn't going to do so now.

In all likelihood, she'll easily win the Republican primary against someone like Joe Miller and then cruise in the general election. But if she were to lose the primary somehow, I tend to think lightning wouldn't strike twice, and she'd lose to the Republican candidate.

This is completely based on gut feeling, so I could be totally wrong.

[badgate]

I'd hope to see her run as an independent. Either way, though, I wouldn't vote for her.

[Joe Republic]

Who's going to be a threat to her by then?  Miller is a joke, as is his main sponsor back then, Palin.

[Suburbia]

I see her being primaried, but she'll win IMO.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

She'll run in the R primary, and now that republicans have learned that it's bad to nominate tea partiers (assuming Miller doesn't win on the 19th), she should win narrowly, and then win by a landslide in the GE. If she somehow loses the R primary, she may try to run as an independent again, but her actually winning (again) under that title seems doubtful.

[NHLiberal]

Here's a question. If Miller had won in 2010, would he be looking vulnerable for 2016 right now? What Democratic challenger prospects would there be? Would Murkowski run in 2016? And if so, would she run as a Republican (primary challenge to Miller), an independent, or a Democrat? If as a Democrat, would she have joined the Democratic Party a few years before, or would she announce joining that party as soon as she announces a run?

I know all that is hypothetical/irrelevant/hard to answer but still interesting to me

[CountyTy90]

Here's a question. If Miller had won in 2010, would he be looking vulnerable for 2016 right now? What Democratic challenger prospects would there be? Would Murkowski run in 2016? And if so, would she run as a Republican (primary challenge to Miller), an independent, or a Democrat? If as a Democrat, would she have joined the Democratic Party a few years before, or would she announce joining that party as soon as she announces a run?

I know all that is hypothetical/irrelevant/hard to answer but still interesting to me

I could see Miller being Cruzesque before Cruz was elected I.E. filibustering Obama, going around nationally preaching conservative ideals, etc. I think he would have an even approval/disapproval rating in Alaska. Murkowski would run in 2016 as an independent and win. (At least I would hope so)

[henster]

Well she's burned bridges with Begich/Dems so I doubt she can pull off that write off stunt she did last time.

[IceSpear]

Option 1. I don't see her running as a Independent unless she loses the Republican primary.

But can't she not do that if she loses the primary, and that's the entire reason she had to do a write-in candidacy last time? Unless she wants to go back to being a write-in candidate, which would be quite entertaining but probably wouldn't work again considering whichever Republican beats her will (presumably) be more competent than Joe Miller.

[Maxwell]

Who's going to be a threat to her by then?  Miller is a joke, as is his main sponsor back then, Palin.

Some other Republican. She's voted much more moderate since her write-in win, I have no doubts they come up with someone else. If Bill Walker weren't running against Sean Parnell as an independent, I'd say Walker is a perfect candidate to knock her off.

[Indy Texas]

Who's going to be a threat to her by then?  Miller is a joke, as is his main sponsor back then, Palin.

Some other Republican. She's voted much more moderate since her write-in win, I have no doubts they come up with someone else. If Bill Walker weren't running against Sean Parnell as an independent, I'd say Walker is a perfect candidate to knock her off.

These are Lisa's scores from the American Conservative Union:

2003 - 74
2004 - 74
2005 - 83
2006 - 71
2007 - 67
2008 - 58
2009 - 68
2010 - 73
*Begins new term after winning as write-in*
2011 - 50
2012 - 36
2013 - 38

She's moved pretty clearly to the left. I think beating Miller provided her with some proof that she doesn't "need" the Republican Party and can use the goodwill and political capital of her family reputation to vote the way she and her conscience choose to; in a way it's similar to Walter Jones' situation.

[KCDem]

If she runs in the Republican primary, she will lose. Her best bet to be re-elected is to run as an independent.