Who will win in Illinois?
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  Who will win in Illinois?
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Poll
Question: Who will win in Illinois?
#1
Pat Quinn (D), I
 
#2
Bruce Rauner (R)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 76

Author Topic: Who will win in Illinois?  (Read 5600 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: August 13, 2014, 07:18:04 AM »

Who will win the gubernatorial race in Illinois?
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2014, 07:21:42 AM »

Rauner, but by a closer margin than expected.
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sg0508
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2014, 07:52:29 AM »

IL Democrats in Cook furiously come home at the end.  It's been that way time and time and time again in many of these races where it looks like the GOP candidate is either far ahead, or with a smaller lead, but is likely to win.

I still believe at the end of the day, Quinn pulls this out.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2014, 08:57:10 AM »

Quinn.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2014, 12:31:19 PM »

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NHLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2014, 12:47:38 PM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2014, 12:49:09 PM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2014, 12:54:26 PM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2014, 01:14:59 PM »

Rauner, by a point or two.
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Flake
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2014, 03:17:13 PM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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Heimdal
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2014, 05:33:47 PM »

IL Democrats in Cook furiously come home at the end.  It's been that way time and time and time again in many of these races where it looks like the GOP candidate is either far ahead, or with a smaller lead, but is likely to win.

I still believe at the end of the day, Quinn pulls this out.

Not neccesarily. The GOP held the governorship in Illinois from 1977 to 2003. Granted that Illinois was more Republican then than it is now, it goes to show that the Democrats can’t always rely on Cook County to deliver them their margin.

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CountyTy90
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2014, 06:41:13 PM »

I'll be voting Rauner, but Quinn will win.
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RR1997
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2014, 10:36:01 PM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2014, 05:12:47 AM »

Gun to my head right now I'd definitely say Rauner, but it's not totally infeasible that Quinn could come back like he did in 2010. I wouldn't bet on it though-- he has a record this time.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2014, 05:47:15 AM »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2014, 07:16:11 AM »

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JRP1994
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2014, 08:19:58 AM »

Rauner (not hackish)
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muon2
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2014, 08:19:58 AM »

If the election were today, I think every observer in IL recognizes that Rauner wins. Some note that Quinn overcame a summer polling and popularity deficit in 2010, but there are a number of new obstacles Quinn faces this year. Here are the three big ones I see in his attempt to erase Rauner's current lead.

1. In 2010 Brady let up the pressure late in the campaign both in terms of monetary expenditures for ads and more importantly in his ground game which never organized well in the Chicago suburbs. Quinn took advantage of that with his fall surge. Rauner shows no signs of letting up and is out spending and outorganizing Quinn at this point. Quinn has to come up with a different strategy this time.

2. Brady is a solid social conservative with a long legislative record. Quinn and allied groups took advantage of that to run a string of scary commercials in the Chicago suburbs. Fear that Brady might enact a string of socially conservative policies moved many Suburbanites away from Brady. This year Quinn is trying to scare voters with Rauner's great wealth, it's basically the only thing he and the Dems stressed at their day at the State Fair. However, the suburbs are the wealthiest area of the state and a wealthy candidate doesn't scare them like certain social ideas do. Quinn has to come up with something different to push Rauner's negatives and keep Rauner's potential voters away.

3. There were a number of high profile races in Cook county in 2010 and the Dems amped up turnout about 2% higher than most models forecast. Even with that turnout Quinn only beat Brady by less than 1% statewide. Furthermore Cohen was a wealth independent who advertised heavily and drew just under 4% of the statewide vote, mostly from voters opposed to Quinn. This year all the third-party and independent candidates are facing legal challenges to their nominating petitions and none have much money. Quinn's ceiling looks to be at about 47% from 2010, and his biggest challenge is to find a way to boost that beyond 2010 when he benefited by higher than normal turnout in Cook and third party candidate removing votes from his opposition.
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sg0508
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2014, 11:28:45 AM »

Keep in mind, for those saying the Democratic "coming home" effect is overrated, Moseley-Braun was within a week or so back in '98 from beating Fitzgerald with her furious last minute surge, coming from 15 pts down to losing by three.  Fitzgerald disappeared the last few weeks, which was a huge mistake, but the fact that she almost stole that race shouldn't be forgotten.
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ill ind
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2014, 11:47:53 AM »

  It all comes down to turnout.  In 2014 only 18% showed up for the primary vs 24% back in 2010.  Primary turnouts in other states have matched Illinois, being very poor--less than in 2010.  If this trend holds and general election turnout in 2014 is deflated from that in 2010 (50.53%), it will come down to who can get their constituency to the polls.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2014, 11:52:22 AM »

  It all comes down to turnout.  In 2014 only 18% showed up for the primary vs 24% back in 2010.  Primary turnouts in other states have matched Illinois, being very poor--less than in 2010.  If this trend holds and general election turnout in 2014 is deflated from that in 2010 (50.53%), it will come down to who can get their constituency to the polls.

In all fairness Quinn was facing a competitive primary in 2010.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2014, 12:39:41 PM »

My boy Paddy Quinn's got this.
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ill ind
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2014, 12:52:56 PM »

  Muon also has a good point about the Cook County Races.  In 2010 there was a 'progressive' wave with Toni Preckwinkle running for her first term as County Board Chair and Forest Claypool running as an independent for County Assessor against machine slated Joe Berrios.  There were some pretty heavy races going, with commercials and a whole lo0t of mud going on.  This time around, the Democratic incumbents are all unopposed.  That has to really hurt Quinn.

  Not much to drive up turnout in the congressionals either.  10 and 11 are competitive, but they drew 60,000 and 2,000 votes respecively in 2012 in a county where 2 million voted, so they will have minimal impact.  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 are all pretty boring Congressional races.


Ill Ind
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2014, 01:37:37 PM »

Quinn should win, but Rauner will make it very close at end. Emanuel high property tax increase is hurting Quinn. It be within 5 pts or less.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #24 on: August 15, 2014, 12:09:40 AM »

Rauner has the edge right now, but Quinn can eek it out. Don't underestimate Chicago and the preponderance of modern-day Yellow Dogs that live here.
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